DJ Herz - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Outlook and Analysis (Week 11)

PROSPECT: DJ Herz, SP, Washington Nationals

CURRENT LEVEL: Triple-A

2024 STATS: 9 G, 9 GS, 3-2, 36.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 10.5 K/9, 7.25 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9, 30.9% GB%, .241 BABIP

ANALYSIS: DJ Herz began the 2023 season with the Chicago Cubs organization but was dealt to the Washington Nationals on July 31. With the Cubs' Double-A affiliate, the lefty went 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 59 IP (12.2 K/9), but with the Nationals' Double-A affiliate he was better, going 2-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 35 1/3 IP (13.5 K/9). Herz was then sent to the Arizona Fall League for some additional seasoning, posting a 3.71 ERA and racking up 25 strikeouts in 17 IP against some of the best minor league hitters.

DJ Herz was phenomenal today in AAA, recording 10 K in 5.1 IP

Herz generated a bunch of whiffs today, leaning heavily on his fastball to miss bats. His changeup graded out well and he limited hard contact overall. pic.twitter.com/nTLK5NHvQh

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 31, 2024

This season at Triple-A, it has been a bit of a mixed bag for the southpaw, going 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He's struck out 42 batters in 36 IP (10.5 K/9), but his command has been atrocious. It has never been good, no better than 13.6% BB% in six of his last seven stops, but in 2024 it is 19.0%. The Nationals likely would like to see an improvement in this area before they call him up, but over his last three starts it seems maybe he's rounding into form, tallying a 23:5 K:BB during that stretch.

On the other hand, the Nats are five games under .500, so perhaps the walks aren't as much of a concern as they would be for a contender. Either way, per MLB.com's Top Prospects list, Herz has an ETA of 2024, so we'll likely see Herz in D.C. this season. If he's called up he'd clearly be an asset in the strikeouts category, so fantasy managers should keep an eye on his next few starts. If they go well, he could be called up sooner rather than later.

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