One of the ideas that's been in the minds of impressionable fantasy owners for who-knows-how-long is that running backs have a breaking point after a certain amount of carries. It's a tiring argument that stems from some very high profile cases including Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Shaun Alexander, who all managed to hit the big 350+ and then fall off the earth the following year.

Except when they didn't. Shaun Alexander hit 350 carries in 2004 with a monster stat line of 1696 yards with 16 touchdowns and followed it up with an even bigger fantasy record setting year in 2005 with 370 carries, 1880 yards and 27 touchdowns. Following 2005, Shaun Alexanders career ended.

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Terrell Davis had 369 carries in 1997 and put up 1750 yards with 15 touchdowns, encoring that performance in 1998 with 392 carries for 2008 yards and 21 touchdowns. In 1999, Davis career would be over after an ACL tear early in the year, an injury that's never been associated with contact or usage.

Clinton Portis had 352 carries in 2005 carrying a tune of 1516 yards and 11 touchdowns. In the preseason of 2006, Portis would injure his shoulder making a tackle after a turnover and then suffer an injury to his hand in the regular season- two injuries that would keep him sidelined for most of his following season.

Since 1970, there have been 56 cases of a RB hitting 350+ carries. Normally, this myth stays dormant until a player reaches the 350 number and it rises it's ugly head again, and that's exactly what happened last year. DeMarco Murray hit 392 carries in 2014 and becomes the only player on that list currently without a conclusion.

Let's take a look at the other seasons.

Running Backs With Over 350 Carries All Time

Although there are a lot of notes I wish I could add to this table if i had the space to, about 29 of these 57 players had a 320+ carry season at least once before their 350+ carry year, some directly preceding it. Walter Peyton already had 7 by the time they hit their second season of 350+ carries.

Out of 57 recorded seasons of 350+ carries, 35 of those (62.5%) managed to reach 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns the following year, translated to fantasy terms that's an RB2 season. 26 players (46.4%) managed to break 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns, basically an RB1 year and potentially a top 5 scorer. Those numbers in a vacuum might seem low, or high, or maybe they're meaningless.

So let's compare them to the last 5 years of RB data. We're going to look at every RB in the last 5 years that's taken over 200+ carries and what percentage of those players managed to have 1000/5 (yes, one touchdown fewer than my original requirement) and 1200/8.

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2009

Immediately we see that backs with 200+ carries in 2009 had a significantly lower success rate at reaching either milestone of 1000/5 and 1200/8. Meanwhile, backs with 250+ were a lot more successful at the former. This is a trend we're going to see continue.

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2010

The 2010 year was a lot better than 2009 at having players who managed to reach those numbers. But it still didn't have the same percentage of players hit the 1200/8 milestone as the 350+ carry group.

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2011

In 2011 we saw a drop across the board, essentially. The 250+ group for the first time falls below the 350+ group for beating 1000/5 (even though the 350+ group had the milestone set at 6 touchdowns).

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2012

Now we reach 2012, where the ability to hit the milestones the following year get worse yet again. Every number falls under the 350+ group.

Running Backs With At Least 200 Carries in 2013

Finally, 2013 again fell under the 350+ carry group for those milestones. So let's put together a conclusion to this.

That's right. Players who have seen 350+ carries have a higher chance than both 200+ and 250+ to reach 1000/6 and 1200/8.

If the only reason you have to avoid a running back this year or any year in the future is their previous workload, this should help put that argument to rest.

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