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Making solid DFS NASCAR predictions is not quite as easy as it has been in past seasons. So far, most events have been stripped of pre-race phases because of health precautions. Instead of qualifying, we often now have random draws to determine starting grids. More importantly, there are no practice sessions.
Customarily, there would be often be three practice sessions for every race, giving us good barometers on how cars should run in the actual race. The final practice session was most important to review in terms of speeds and 10 consecutive lap averages. Now we are going into races devoid of that important info. That makes us rely heavier on recent performances overall and past results at certain tracks. This week, at Atlanta, you want to stay with hot drivers and consider those who have performed well recently at Atlanta and other intermediate tracks. But we must also separate the two trends when needed to make tight decisions.
Drivers who have not met expectations recently or are slumping will be more risky, but if some proper adjustments are made by the teams, they could quickly bounce back. We spotlight two drivers at the top of the pricing ladders this week to see if they are really worth it when you consider recent performances.
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Kevin Harvick ($11,700 DK, $14,000 FD) and Kyle Busch ($11,200 DK, $13,500 DK) are the two most expensive drivers on each site this week. Past results may indicate they have earned the tags. But neither driver has been dominant enough recently to warrant wide exposure to them this week.
Harvick has the all-time best Driver Rating at AMS (100.5) and the most Fastest Laps Run (555). He has two wins at the site and an Average Finish of 2.5 in the last two years at Atlanta. He has the best AF (8.1) and the most wins (six) at intermediate tracks over the past two years. All past stats ring heavily in his favor.
But Harvick does not have a Top 5 finish in his past three races this season and has not finished in the Top 10 in his last two. He did lead 63 laps at Charlotte two races ago, but he has been progressively declining in finishing positions since he won the return race at Darlington on May 17. As we indicated, Harvick and his team may get things figured out quickly and make the necessary changes to contend for a win. But until we see Harvick run in the Top 3 or so for a heavy portion of a race, it’s better to limit your overall exposure more than you normally would at the current price.
Kyle Busch keeps getting pinned to the top of the pricing tiers but he is just not worth it right now. He does have an AF of 8.6 on intermediates over the past two years, with four wins. But he has one Top 5 in his past five AMS starts. He has only made a serious push for a win once since the Cup series resumed, with only one Top 3 finish. He did lead 100 laps at Bristol but that’s not enough to justify the spend this week.
There are some really appealing bargains at lower tags this week. Don’t fade Harvick completely. As we always advise, employ multiple lineups. You should have a minimum of four. Use Harvick in one, and maybe two if you roll out more lineups, but he is not a must-start. Steering clear of Kyle Busch is recommended unless you build more than six or seven lineups and you want to take the shot on him.
Balance in your DFS Force
Mostly avoiding the top two drivers this week can offer you opportunities to build nicely balanced lineups. Brad Keselowski is $13,200 on FD, and is worth it, but he is an incredible bargain at $8.900 on DK. He has won two of the past three AMS races and finished second in the one he did not win during that span. Keselowski has five wins on intermediate tracks over the past two seasons and is the ultimate building block for a balanced DK lineup. He has won two of the past three events this season.
Clint Bowyer ($8,800 FD, $8,700 FD) is even more of an attractive play on FD, as he comes off a second place finish at Bristol. He has finished third and fifth in his past two AMs starts. Bowyer starts fifth and may not be widely owned because he is not a Place Differential target or a prime contender overall. But he could match or better his starting position and may be a difference-maker for you.
In his past four starts at AMS, Kurt Busch has two Top 5 finishes and four in the Top 8. He starts 12th and should be good for some bonus PD points as he can push for a Top 5 showing this week. He is at $11,000 on FD and $9,400 on FD, which is fair pricing on both sites.
As a lineup building example this week, you can roster all three of those drivers this week on DK and have an average of $7,666 per driver left for your other three slots. But there are a few other drivers available in similar ranges this week that also look attractive DFS wise, so you are going to have to spread the optimum choices across several lineups. It may be possible to build nicely balanced lineups in more than a few of them, though.
Chase Elliott has an AF of 10.5 at AMS, which is second best all-time. His Average Running Position of 10.5 is third best. He starts on the pole and seems like s surefire bet to lead many laps. He is the fourth highest priced FD driver at $12,300 and is a terrific value at $9,900 on DK. Alex Bowman ($11,400 FD, $9,100 DK) has led for 256 laps and has run 137 of the Fastest Laps since Cup action resumed. He has the fifth-best DR this season and is overdue for a strong finish.
Tyler Reddick is a prime value at $7,800 on FD and is fairly priced at $8,300 on DK. He has an AF of 11.5 on intermediates over the past two seasons and has finished inside the Top 15 in four races since the Cup series returned. There is some PD promise as he starts 24th. Erik Jones is fairly priced at $9,000 on DK, but is astoundingly tagged at $6,600 on DK. He has finished ninth and 11th in his past two AMS starts and has placed in the Top 5 in two of his past four events this season.
More Atlanta Drivers to Consider
Place Differential Targets: William Byron (20th - $9.400 FD, $7,900 DK), Christopher Bell (27th - $6,000 FD, $7,400 DK), Matt DiBenedetto (21st - $8,600 FD, $7,200 DK), Cole Custer (31st - $5,500 FD, $6,100 DK)
Other Possible Starting Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($12,200 FD, $9,600 DK), Jimmie Johnson ($10,000 FD, $10,200 DK).
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