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The NASCAR Cup Series will hold two races on Thursday night at Daytona International Speedway to further determine the starting order for Sunday's Great American Race, the Daytona 500.
These races are called the Duels and are short, 150-mile sprints. These two "preview" races give us a good glimpse into what we may see on Sunday while also tiding us racing fans over for a few more days before the season officially starts.
DraftKings is giving us twin $60K GPPs for the two Duel races on Thursday night, with the top prize for each set at $10K. You can also join the private RotoBaller DraftKings contest for this race by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
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This DraftKings Projections and Picks article, my industry-leading Betting Picks, as well as my exclusive Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order posts are typically reserved for Premium RotoBaller subscribers, but we have decided to make these FREE for the Duel races at Daytona this week.
Be sure to take advantage of 35% off premium NASCAR subscriptions before the Daytona 500 by using code JORDAN25 when signing up! You can click here to join in on the winning!
Can't believe the 2025 NASCAR season is finally here.
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Lineup Building Strategy and Race Theories to Consider for Duel #2
It's a good idea to analyze each Duel race and see if there is any strategy or correlation that could help shape your DraftKings lineup-building strategy. Below are a few of the things that I have noticed for the first Duel race:
- The two Duel races are both short events with a small field. With only 150 miles scheduled on a 2.5-mile track, we're looking at a total of 60 laps for each Duel on Thursday night. This means that place differential and finishing position are the targets when it comes to building DraftKings lineups, and while dominator FPTS for laps led and fastest laps could come into play, you shouldn't focus on them.
- This race has some true heavy hitters. Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney are all top-tier superspeedway racers, and Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher are no slouches either. All of those drivers start 10th or better, so I think we could definitely see some of the higher-starting drivers make the optimal lineup in this race.
- There are five Toyotas in this field. Chase Briscoe, who is on the pole, should be avoided in DFS contests, but increasing correlation when it comes to Martin Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace is a good idea, in my opinion. They'll likely be working together.
- The Open drivers fighting to lock their spot in this year's Daytona 500 in Duel #2 are: Corey LaJoie, Anthony Alfredo, and BJ McLeod. In my opinion, all of these guys are pretty close on speed, and it'll be fun watching them compete for a spot in The Great American Race.
Core Driver Picks for Duel #2
Ryan Blaney ($9.7K) - The Penske Fords are going to be tough on Thursday night, especially if they work with the Roush-Fenway Keselowski Racing Fords, too. Blaney has the most Place Differential upside of those five drivers, and he can win this race. He has also finished third or sixth in three of his last four Duel races at Daytona.
Erik Jones ($8.0K) - I really like the LEGACY Motor Club Toyotas in this race. Erik Jones is no slouch when it comes to superspeedway racing, and he has finished sixth or better in three of his last five Duel races. He starts back in 18th on Thursday night, so there's a ton of Place Differential upside there.
Tournament Driver Picks for Duel #2
Chris Buescher ($8.7K) - As I said before, there are a lot of heavy hitters in this race. With that being said, let's not forget that Chris Buescher is a previous Daytona winner (2023) and also won the Duel race here in 2022. With so much focus on some of the "bigger name" superspeedway drivers in this race, I expect Buescher to go relatively overlooked compared to his DFS upside in this race.
Riley Herbst ($6.2K) - Herbst has a very strong group of Toyotas to work with in this Duel, and with him starting 13th, he's likely to go relatively low-owned on DraftKings Thursday night. Riley did finish 10th in the Daytona 500 back in 2023 with Rick Ware Racing, for what that's worth.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan's Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Duel #2 on Thursday night, according to my projections, is:
- Ryan Blaney
- Brad Keselowski
- Chris Buescher
- Joey Logano
- Alex Bowman
- Noah Gragson
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DraftKings Driver Projections for Duel #2
You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember: the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections.
| Driver | DK Salary | Proj DK Pts | Proj Own | Start Pos | Avg Proj Finish | $ Per FPT |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,300 | 42.20 | 43.43% | 8 | 06.8 | $220 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,700 | 41.05 | 45.49% | 10 | 08.2 | $236 |
| Joey Logano | $8,400 | 39.65 | 38.43% | 2 | 05.8 | $212 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,700 | 39.50 | 29.87% | 9 | 07.6 | $220 |
| Noah Gragson | $6,400 | 38.80 | 26.10% | 11 | 09.2 | $165 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,500 | 37.55 | 38.55% | 5 | 06.8 | $253 |
| Alex Bowman | $6,800 | 36.85 | 18.66% | 6 | 07.2 | $185 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,000 | 35.50 | 33.37% | 3 | 07.2 | $254 |
| John H. Nemechek | $7,400 | 35.35 | 33.71% | 19 | 14.0 | $209 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $5,700 | 33.85 | 24.50% | 20 | 14.8 | $168 |
| Cole Custer | $7,600 | 33.30 | 21.40% | 16 | 13.4 | $228 |
| BJ McLeod | $5,200 | 33.20 | 24.72% | 21 | 16.2 | $157 |
| Erik Jones | $8,000 | 33.05 | 35.78% | 18 | 14.2 | $242 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,200 | 32.70 | 25.11% | 4 | 08.6 | $251 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,800 | 32.25 | 18.58% | 12 | 11.8 | $242 |
| Riley Herbst | $6,200 | 31.35 | 13.21% | 13 | 13.2 | $198 |
| Corey LaJoie | $7,200 | 30.50 | 29.34% | 17 | 15.2 | $236 |
| Cody Ware | $5,500 | 30.05 | 25.78% | 22 | 17.6 | $183 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $7,000 | 28.80 | 21.52% | 15 | 15.6 | $243 |
| Austin Cindric | $6,000 | 26.45 | 18.12% | 1 | 10.2 | $227 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $5,000 | 26.10 | 17.82% | 14 | 16.0 | $192 |
| Todd Gilliland | $6,600 | 21.30 | 16.51% | 7 | 14.8 | $310 |
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