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This one is going to be fun. The Daytona 500 always gets a bunch of hype--and for good reason. It's the start of the NASCAR Cup Series season and it's one of the most exciting races to play DFS. But this slate is something special. More on that later.
The strategy approach you need to take for a race at Daytona is entirely different than most races when it comes to DFS lineups and DraftKings. So buckle up because we have a lot to talk about.
DraftKings has a $1,500,000 prize pool for the big GPP for this weekend's Daytona 500, with $500K going to first. Let's start breaking this down and see if a RotoBaller can grab the half-a-milly! Also, join the private RotoBaller DraftKings Daytona 500 contest by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
Lineup Building Strategy at Superspeedways
Starting position and finishing position. It's all that matter at Daytona when it comes to DFS lineups. Above is a very simple visual representation of DraftKings base scoring on Sunday, with the finishing position on the left column and the starting position on the top row.
My main advice for most people when they ask me about Daytona DraftKings lineups is this: it's not about who you pick, it's about the strategy you use to build your lineup. As you can see above, it rarely pays off to take the drivers that start further up in the field. A driver who starts 40th and finishes 15th scores more base DraftKings FPTS than a driver who starts 10th and finishes second!
Dominator points are incredibly difficult to predict at Daytona (and not as concentrated as other "normal" races), so we really kind of have to ignore them when building DraftKings lineups this weekend. Even if the pole sitter leads 100 laps, he's not going to be in the optimal lineup if he wrecks out.
Finally, the salary cap means nothing. Leave cap on the table. You don't have to use it all like you do at "normal" race tracks. The vast majority of the top lineups at Daytona on DraftKings routinely leave thousands of salary cap on the table.
DFS Strategies for the Daytona 500
Strategy, strategy, strategy. That's all that matters this weekend. It's not who you pick; it's what kind of upside they have. That's it. Anybody can have a good finish at Daytona. You just need to be in the position to capitalize on that with your DFS lineup.
Here are a few pointers to remember:
- Don't rely on projections and crank up the randomness. As weird as it sounds, this isn't the week to get caught up looking at projections. They're a decent starting spot, but don't forget: the Daytona 500 is not predictable, I don't care what anyone says. Profitability in DraftKings requires a solid lineup-building strategy (one that is focused on place differential) and a little bit of luck. I do my driver FPTS projections for this race, but in all honesty, I don't use them because it's unpredictable! What I do use is ownership percentage projections, though, to see where I can gain an edge over the rest of the DraftKings players.
- Find your leverage. The starting lineup is where you're going to find your leverage spots to try and exploit for an edge. Remember, Daytona is an extremely random race. Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. are projected to be the highest-owned on the slate. So why not go underweight on them in case they wreck? Shift that ownership down to the "lesser name" drivers that are also starting in the 30s and try and gain leverage there. Those "lesser name" drivers have the same Place Differential upside as Kez, Bowman, and Stenhouse!
- Avoid the top starters. I'd take the top seven starters out of your driver pool entirely. The highest starter I would consider rostering is Denny Hamlin ($10.0K) in eighth. And for him, I'd go underweight to the field. With drivers starting that high up, you need them to lead laps and win the race. But remember: nothing is guaranteed at Daytona. It's best to focus on place differential when building lineups.
- Practice means nothing. I'm going to be honest with you: I don't even look at practice speeds at Daytona. They mean nothing here. Don't let them make you think one way or another. They mean nothing, and some teams don't even bother heading out on the track at times.
What About The Rain?
It wouldn't be a NASCAR race weekend without rain in the forecast. They moved up the start time of this year's Daytona 500 by an hour. When I looked at the forecast on Saturday afternoon, it looked as though we'll get the race started, but there's a good chance that it could rain in the middle of it. But we'll most like get the race in on Sunday. It could just take a while.
However, adding rain could create more chaos. Think back to the summer race here in 2022. Rain hit the track in turn one and took out half the field because NASCAR didn't have time to throw a caution before the leaders hit the wet pavement.
That could easily happen again this weekend. And it's all the more reason I think this is an amazing slate to be contrarian and spread out your exposures well among the high-upside drivers. The potential for "chaos rain" actually could benefit the guys that typically hang out in the back of the field.
Cash Game Driver Picks for Daytona
When it comes to cash games on DraftKings and the Daytona 500, you're focusing on place differential and that's it. I would recommend your entire cash game lineup be drivers that are starting 31st or worse in this race. Let's focus on three of my favorites this weekend, though.
Brad Keselowski ($9,2K) - Any time you have the chance to get a superspeedway heavy hitter like Keselowski with massive Place Differential upside, you have to take it--especially in cash games.
Kez has been on a "one good finish, one not-so-good finish" at Daytona for years now; in six of the last 12 points-paying races at this track, he has finished 13th or better. In five of the other six, he's ended up 33rd or worse.
As I said, though, you need to go with upside when it comes to cash game lineups, and there's a reason why Keselowski is my highest-projected driver for Sunday. If you want to be contrarian and go underweight on him, do it in large-field tournaments.
Alex Bowman ($8.2K) - Easy second click here. Believe it or not, Bowman actually has the second-best average finish (15.2) among active drivers with five or more starts here at Daytona. Part of that may be because he usually has a good starting spot--his average starting position is 13.0--but "The Showman" also only has one DNF in 17 career starts at this track.
Bowman's No. 48 Chevrolet will roll off the starting grid from way back in 38th place on Sunday. He's a must-have for cash games on DraftKings.
Martin Truex Jr ($7.2K) - Truex is a good superspeedway racer, he just runs into a lot of bad luck. The good news is, we just need him to not have something catastrophic happen early on Sunday and he will be fine in DFS thanks to his 39th-place starting position.
In the Next Gen era, Truex hasn't finished worse than 15th in the Daytona 500, and we know those Toyotas race well in the draft. My projections love Truex this weekend, and I actually think he may end up being a bit under-owned for where he starts. Even just a 15th-place finish out of MTJ on Sunday would give him a huge base score of 52 FPTS on DraftKings.
Tournament Driver Picks for Daytona
Now is where the fun begins! Being contrarian is where DFS is the most fun, and superspeedway races like the ones at Daytona open up the biggest doors to take that strategy. Let's go over a few of my favorite contrarian/tournament drivers for Sunday...
Christopher Bell ($8.8K) - Ahh... my arch nemesis. Can't believe I'm starting out the season writing him up. But anyway, Christopher Bell is sandwiched in the starting lineup between some really popular superspeedway drivers, particularly Ryan Blaney ($9.7K), Chase Elliott ($9.5K), Kyle Busch ($9.3K), and Kyle Larson ($9.9K).
But there's really no reason why Bell should be significantly lower-owned than those guys, especially considering he has the same upside starting 20th.
Bell is no slouch on superspeedways, and he's actually projected to finish second by my Algorithm this weekend. He's finished third in three of the last four points-paying races at Daytona, including each of the last two Great American Races--for what that's worth.
Noah Gragson ($6.8K) and Zane Smith ($5.8K) - Teammates with huge Place Differential upside that I'm projecting to be low-owned compared to where they probably should be on Sunday? Count me in. Gragson has two top-10 finishes in his last four Daytona starts, while Zane has finished 13th in every single points-paying start that he's made at this race track (three of them).
Gragson starts 32nd on Sunday, while Zane starts 37th. With so many big-name drivers also starting deep in the field, I think that's going to shift ownership away from the "little guys." But those little guys still have massive Place Differential upside, and that's all that matters when it comes to DFS at Daytona.
Cody Ware ($5.2K) - Oh, Jordan's off his rocker. I wouldn't be surprised if you were saying that right now. But hear me out on this: nobody is going to have Cody Ware! He starts 28th and is super-low priced at only $5,200. But here's the thing: there's still plenty of Place Differential upside when you're starting 28th!
Not to mention, Cody Ware is actually pretty good at avoiding the chaos on superspeedways. Look at his four finishes here in the Next Gen era: fourth, 14th, sixth, and 17th. He even finished 12th in the fall race at Talladega last season...
More Drivers To Be Overweight On
Honestly, this slate is a contrarian player's dream. While mass amounts of DFS players are going to flock to guys like Stenhouse, Keselowski, Bowman, and Truex, it's going to shift ownership enough that there will be plenty of opportunity to be overweight on drivers with similar (or even higher) Place Differential upside than those aforementioned guys.
It was hard for me to narrow my Tournament picks down to just those four drivers above. Helio Castroneves ($6.0K) has the highest upside of all drivers yet he's probably going to be mid-teens in ownership percentage. Jimmie Johnson ($5.5K) also has massive upside, and while he'll get an ownership bump because of his name, it won't be high enough for a guy starting 40th.
Justin Haley ($6.6K) is a great superspeedway racer and starts 35th. His teammate, Carson Hocevar ($6.5K), is a good one to pair with him. Cole Custer ($6.2K) is going to be low-owned because this team is brand new. But he starts 30th! Go overweight on the field! Same with Josh Berry ($7.7K), Ryan Preece ($8.4K), and Shane van Gisbergen ($6.3K).
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan's Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for the Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon, according to my projections, is:
- Kyle Busch
- Brad Keselowski
- Alex Bowman
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr
- Daniel Suarez
- Martin Truex Jr
***NOTE: This is a very chalky lineup. It's a very safe lineup and should cash. But I'd recommend getting a little more risky with tournament entries. It's worth noting that my second-highest projected lineup has Bell in it instead of Bowman.
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DraftKings Driver Projections for the Daytona 500
You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember: the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections. You need to replace.
| Driver | DK Salary | Proj DK Pts | Proj Own | Start Pos | Avg Proj Finish | $ Per FPT |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,200 | 58.70 | 40.11% | 34 | 11.6 | $157 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $7,200 | 55.13 | 25.16% | 39 | 14.8 | $131 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,300 | 53.11 | 27.06% | 21 | 08.8 | $175 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,200 | 51.41 | 36.58% | 38 | 16.2 | $160 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,900 | 49.94 | 24.96% | 22 | 09.2 | $198 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,700 | 48.70 | 20.43% | 16 | 07.4 | $199 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,500 | 45.62 | 21.84% | 17 | 09.2 | $208 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,500 | 43.88 | 29.06% | 31 | 17.0 | $171 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,800 | 43.71 | 17.22% | 20 | 11.4 | $201 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,000 | 42.32 | 21.14% | 8 | 07.8 | $236 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,300 | 37.37 | 20.94% | 36 | 21.6 | $195 |
| Ryan Preece | $8,400 | 37.02 | 11.12% | 27 | 17.8 | $227 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,600 | 33.62 | 10.26% | 3 | 09.0 | $256 |
| Joey Logano | $9,600 | 32.46 | 18.19% | 10 | 13.8 | $296 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,900 | 31.85 | 7.53% | 2 | 09.2 | $248 |
| Noah Gragson | $6,800 | 31.69 | 16.58% | 32 | 22.8 | $215 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,500 | 31.49 | 7.21% | 11 | 12.0 | $270 |
| Justin Haley | $6,600 | 31.06 | 20.05% | 35 | 24.2 | $213 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,900 | 30.14 | 9.74% | 6 | 11.6 | $295 |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 29.95 | 11.88% | 5 | 11.4 | $301 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $5,500 | 29.23 | 25.87% | 40 | 27.4 | $188 |
| John H. Nemechek | $5,900 | 27.61 | 6.10% | 18 | 18.6 | $214 |
| Carson Hocevar | $6,500 | 27.61 | 19.98% | 33 | 24.4 | $235 |
| Michael McDowell | $7,100 | 25.10 | 14.42% | 25 | 22.4 | $283 |
| Cole Custer | $6,200 | 24.95 | 10.99% | 30 | 24.4 | $248 |
| Ty Gibbs | $7,400 | 24.50 | 8.45% | 23 | 21.2 | $302 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $6,300 | 23.68 | 10.12% | 26 | 22.8 | $266 |
| Helio Castroneves | $6,000 | 23.61 | 15.79% | 41 | 30.0 | $254 |
| Zane Smith | $5,800 | 23.21 | 11.30% | 37 | 28.6 | $250 |
| Josh Berry | $7,700 | 22.09 | 13.66% | 29 | 25.6 | $349 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,700 | 19.99 | 5.00% | 13 | 20.4 | $335 |
| Cody Ware | $5,200 | 19.83 | 3.91% | 28 | 26.6 | $262 |
| Todd Gilliland | $7,800 | 18.91 | 3.21% | 14 | 19.8 | $413 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,000 | 18.42 | 7.13% | 1 | 16.4 | $434 |
| Riley Herbst | $6,100 | 15.17 | 4.47% | 24 | 26.2 | $402 |
| Erik Jones | $6,400 | 13.15 | 7.93% | 4 | 18.4 | $487 |
| Justin Allgaier | $7,000 | 12.99 | 8.96% | 19 | 24.6 | $539 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,100 | 09.18 | 7.64% | 9 | 23.0 | $882 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,900 | 08.72 | 8.95% | 15 | 25.0 | $791 |
| Corey LaJoie | $5,700 | 02.30 | 4.02% | 12 | 26.6 | $2,476 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,400 | 02.17 | 3.23% | 7 | 24.2 | $2,486 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $5,300 | 00.00 | 0.30% | N/A | N/A | $0 |
| BJ McLeod | $5,100 | 00.00 | 0.66% | N/A | N/A | $0 |
| Chandler Smith | $5,600 | 00.00 | 0.31% | N/A | N/A | $0 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,000 | 00.00 | 0.54% | N/A | N/A | $0 |
Don't forget to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion this NASCAR season!
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