David Moore Fantasy Football Outlook - Was His Big Game Legit or a Fluke?

Carolina Panthers wide receiver David Moore was surprisingly his team's best receiver in Week 12. He put together a great game against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that's been tough all season. He may have been the least likely player fantasy managers thought would have a great day in that matchup.

However, even late in the season, it's possible to see breakout games, and players can go on hot streaks at any time. It's vitally important to identify those -- the fantasy playoffs are coming up very soon, and you have to do whatever you can to get an edge at this point.

So, was Moore's game a fluke, or was it legit? Will he be the best receiver to have in fantasy football for the Panthers moving forward? What will the rest of his season look like, and should he be picked up or started in Week 13?

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Why Did David Moore Have a Big Game? 

There are a few layers to Moore's day in Week 12. With another game in the books for the Kansas City Chiefs, who narrowly lucked out to beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday, we're starting to get a clearer picture of what's happening to their defense. Spoiler: it's been pretty awful recently.

Kansas City Chiefs defense ranks this season:

19th in points allowed per drive
17th in yards allowed per drive

Don't let the raw point totals fool you, this Chiefs defense is mid as hell. Not great, not terrible, but mid.

— Barry (@BarryOnHere) November 29, 2024

These averages are now dragged down by a string of games in which Kansas City has been abnormally struggling with stopping opposing quarterbacks. Sometimes, season-long statistics can be very misleading. In Weeks 10-12, the Chiefs were below average in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and were shredded by WRs.

Taking a look at the charts below, we can start to see a clearer picture of what's going on. The Chiefs have been giving up a ton of completions to receivers. You can see the points allowed to receivers numbers aren't quite as bad in standard as they are in PPR, meaning a disproportionate amount of RECs relative to yards and scores are being surrendered.

Happy Tuesday! Here's this week's #fantasyfootball matchup charts!

Because things change so drastically on a week to week basis in the NFL, we wanted to see how the matchups looked using a three week window.

Here's how we are looking for Week 13: pic.twitter.com/FdkZkwhNT4

— AT412 FF Show (@AT412FFShow) November 27, 2024

As to why this is happening, it's a bit confusing. As the season has gone on, the quality of the Chiefs pass defense has declined markedly. The only major injury in the team's secondary appears to be cornerback Jaylen Watson (ankle), who was listed as a starter at the beginning of the season, alongside CB Trent McDuffie.

Here’s the Chiefs’ depth chart entering Week 1. pic.twitter.com/TrBJkrs1ZC

— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) August 31, 2024

He fractured his ankle in late October, and that injury aligns well with the sudden drop-off in production. KC simply hasn't had an answer in the secondary since then, and when their pass rush isn't getting home, they've been unable to effectively cover receivers and shut off passing lanes to wideouts.

Perfect time for Curtis Samuel's first touchdown as a BUFFALO BILL!

📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/OXUcXrDBIy

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 17, 2024

Sometimes a lack of quality personnel in a unit forces defensive coordinators to adjust their defenses in a way that allows disproportionate production to an opposing position group. It's difficult to prove this is happening with the Chiefs, but it's a strong possibility.

So now maybe we can actually talk about Moore. Interestingly, his receiving touchdown came at the one-yard line, and he was covered by McDuffie, who was an AP First-Team All-Pro last season. McD actually covered the play pretty well, but a perfect bullet pass from quarterback Bryce Young allowed Moore to snag the score.

Bryce Young (6) to David Moore (1)
Carolina Panthers
1 yard
pic.twitter.com/zpqwA1YS2X

— NFL Touchdown Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) November 24, 2024

The timing of the throw was also just sublime.

Will David Moore Continue to Dominate? 

Probably not. One big issue moving forward will likely be playing time. By mid-November, it was clear that there was a hierarchy at WR, accounting for injuries, of course. The top-3 wideouts were set to be Adam Thielen (hamstring), who primarily plays in the slot, and rookies Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker (quad).

Carolina Panthers rookie WR Jalen Coker finally played more than David Moore.

Coker ran a route on 26 of 28 dropbacks in Week 10.

+ 32% target share
+ 50% air yardage share

It could have been a much bigger Fantasy day for Coker. pic.twitter.com/5K2Rdw5XgK

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 11, 2024

Of course, Coker wasn't able to play in Week 12 due to a quad injury. Thielen returned for that game and played primarily in the slot. Legette has had the most consistent playing time. Moore actually took as many snaps as Legette and ran just one less route. But when Coker returns, that could change.

Moore had a nice day, but he hadn't been targeted more than six times in any of his other games this season. When the undrafted rookie comes back, we could see some kind of ugly rotation between Moore and Coker. Even Thielen could be rotated out pretty often.

In an interview a short time ago, Legette indicated that the team moved him to the "X" position, which implies that he'll be on the field the majority of the time. Coker has flashed nicely this season, meaning there will be plenty of fight over playing time. Legette was a first-round pick, remember?

What Will the Rest of David Moore's Season Look Like? 

It might not be great. While there's an injury to the WR corps, he's enjoyed much more playing time. But when the team had at least three WRs healthy ahead of him on the depth chart, Moore got so little playing time that he didn't have much chance to be fantasy-relevant.

One of @JohnsonNazeeh’s best plays on Sunday while covering Panthers WR David Moore. Despite a poor throw from Bryce Young, Johnson demonstrated the speed and agility essential for a starting CB.

He allowed just 3 receptions on 8 targets, resulting in a passer rating of 56.7.… pic.twitter.com/Qlj1D97ITr

— P-Mac McGruder (@ChiefsFan4Lyfe) November 25, 2024

He's a 29-year old journeyman that's been on five teams now, and it's clear his most likely role is that of a depth-piece. He struggles to get separation most of the time and didn't have a single game scoring double-digit PPR points before last Sunday. You can't knock him for doing a nice job filling in his role, but some roles aren't great for fantasy.

It's hard to see him have a consistent value. Carolina's offense has been bad for most of the season, and both of its quarterbacks have been very inconsistent. For the most part, the QB play has been poor.

Should I Pick Up or Start David Moore Week 13? 

In deep leagues, he's fine to pick up. But it's difficult to recommend starting him. However, Coker won't play, as he's already been ruled out. In very deep leagues, Moore has sneaky WR3/FLEX value. He'll be facing a poor secondary in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed the seventh-most PPR fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season.

3rd & 8. Q3. Down 11. Zero blitz.

What a fucking throw this is by Bryce Young. Releases it just as David Moore breaks outside.

Gain of 17 pic.twitter.com/lDPRLubBxr

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 25, 2024

Young also seemed to have made strides. We hope. He made some highly difficult throws against the Chiefs. There's a chance he could be a fine starter in leagues of 14 or more teams or for rosters that are in desperate need of help at receiver.

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