X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

David Dahl to the Rangers - Fantasy Impact

It's been a rough journey through the majors so far for David Dahl. The potential has been there for the former 10th overall pick, but he has been plagued by injuries nearly every season. A torn hamstring in 2013 and a lacerated spleen in 2015 cost him time in the minors, a stress fracture in a rib and back spasms cost him most of 2017, a fractured foot sidelined him for a couple months in 2018 and then an ankle injury cut short his breakout 2019 campaign.

In 2020, his poor offensive performance was likely due to a shoulder injury that started bothering Dahl in January that he had attempted to play through before eventually undergoing surgery in September.

After the Rockies parted ways with Dahl this offseason, the Texas Rangers decided to take a chance on Dahl and signed him to a one-year "prove it" deal. He'll likely take over in left field for the departing Shin-Soo Choo, but the two questions for Dahl are can he stay healthy, and what kind of value can he provide in fantasy? Let's take a look.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Dahl-lar Menu Fantasy Deals

It won't come as a surprise to anyone that Dahl's injury history will make it harder to predict how he will do in Texas this year. So the way we'll tackle this is by starting off with what Dahl is capable of if he remains healthy for a full season, and then we'll take a look at what to reasonably expect out of him assuming he misses time.

Throughout his career in the Rockies farm system, Dahl showed potential as a likely 15-homer, 15-steal guy with the possibility of a 20-20 performance while hitting for a solid-to-high average. His best year of full-season ball came in 2016, when he hit .314 with a .963 OPS, 18 home runs and 17 steals in 92 games as he bounced back from having his spleen removed in 2015. Fantasy managers saw a glimpse of that version of Dahl in 2019, when he appeared in a career-high 100 games with the Rockies and hit .302 with an .877 OPS, 15 home runs and 61 RBI, albeit with only four steals. If you projected Dahl's numbers out over a full season, he was on pace to hit 25 home runs before his injury — and that was down from the rate he had in 2018 in which he was on pace for a 34-home run season. And Dahl was hitting for a good average even in limited playing time, as he had a career .297 average over his first three seasons with his lowest mark a .273 average in 2018.

You could see the potential in Dahl's bat between the injuries, but then 2020 happened and Dahl struggled all season long. Besides slashing a career-worst .183/.222/.247, Dahl had a career-high 28.3 percent strikeout rate, a career-low 4.0 percent walk rate and he struggled to make hard contact. His 22.7 percent hard-hit rate, 3.0 barrel percentage and 85.9 mph average exit velocity were all career-lows for him. Most of that dip in hard contact though is likely as a result of playing through the shoulder injury, and it's entirely likely that all those numbers go back up in 2021 with the shoulder no longer a factor.

But assuming that Dahl can have a full, healthy season this year, the biggest concern fantasy managers should have is the dreaded Coors Field Splits. Check out Dahl's career splits:

BA OBP SLG ISO HR HR/FB
Home .318 .361 .556 .239 25 18.1%
Away .248 .302 .420 .172 13 13.1%

Oof. Need I say more? On one hand Dahl has shown some pop in the minors, but he has definitely benefitted from playing at Coors Field and that might not spell good news for his value in Texas. Whereas before we had established that Dahl had been on track for 25 to 35 home runs over a full healthy season, moving to Texas it's possible that a more realistic prediction for Dahl is 15 to 25 homers based on these splits.

Now the one thing that Dahl showed in the minors that has not translated into his major league career so far is stolen bases. He swiped 12 bags in his first year of pro ball, and from 2014 to 2016 Dahl averaged 20 steals per season. But the injuries that have limited his playing time have also effected his steals, as he has 15 career steals over 264 games. It's a stretch for sure, but it's possible a fully healthy Dahl could steal 10 to 15 bases with the Rangers. Especially considering the aggressiveness in stealing that Texas displayed in 2020. Despite having the fewest stolen base opportunities in the majors, the Rangers' 9.2 percent stolen base attempt rate was the highest out of any team and nearly double the league average of 4.9 percent. So Dahl could see a boost being on a team that's more aggressive with their baserunning.

 

2021 Outlook

So where does that leave us with Dahl in Texas? Assuming a full, healthy season from Dahl, fantasy managers should expect an average somewhere around .255 to .280 with about 15 to 20 home runs and 10 (maybe 15) steals. The safer bet when you take into consideration his injury history is probably 12 to 15 homers and 5 to 10 steals, but the average should still be between .255 and .280. A good full season comparison for Dahl would be something between Andrew Benintendi and Kevin Pillar's 2019 campaigns.

He currently owns an ADP of 305 — basically a borderline late-round target. You're not likely to roster him in the majority of standard leagues barring a major mid-season hot streak, but in deeper leagues he'll be worth some consideration very late in drafts. Make sure to keep an eye on him this year in case he finally manages to shake off the injury bug and put it all together.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cody Bellinger32 mins ago

Picks Up $27.5 Million Player Option With Cubs
Gerrit Cole43 mins ago

s Opts Out Of Contract With Yankees
Rhys Hoskins3 hours ago

Staying In Milwaukee
4 hours ago

Seattle Declines Club Option On Jorge Polanco
Luke Weaver4 hours ago

Returning To New York
Josh Downs4 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 9
Eugenio Suárez4 hours ago

Arizona Picks Up Club Option On Eugenio Suarez
Michael Pittman Jr.4 hours ago

Will Play In Week 9
DK Metcalf4 hours ago

Has Strong Chance To Return In Week 11
Nikolaj Ehlers5 hours ago

Totals Four Points Versus Blue Jackets
Igor Shesterkin6 hours ago

Stops 40 Shots Versus Senators
Aleksander Barkov6 hours ago

Amasses Four Points In Finland
Dan Vladar6 hours ago

Shuts Out Devils Friday Night
Adam Pelech6 hours ago

Makes Early Exit Versus Sabres
Mike Reilly6 hours ago

Exits Friday's Action With Injury
NHL6 hours ago

Nathan Bastian Suffers Jaw Injury On Friday
Jordan Clarkson14 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma14 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray14 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua15 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love16 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry18 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi18 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns18 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie18 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis19 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard19 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton19 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins19 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov19 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford19 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin19 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins19 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas19 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell19 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi19 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw19 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis19 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield19 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe19 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman19 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine19 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
19 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak19 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault19 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter19 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley19 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum19 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
19 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black20 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner20 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones20 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault20 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell20 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane20 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs20 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye20 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd21 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley21 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles21 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.21 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott21 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson22 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa22 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov22 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love22 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal22 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko22 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone22 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua23 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis24 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku24 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving24 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku1 day ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen1 day ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Tomás Nosek1 day ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
1 day ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
1 day ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
1 day ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
Lucas Giolito1 day ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton1 day ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Staying In Arizona
2 days ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras2 days ago

Claimed By Texas
2 days ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado2 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz2 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis2 days ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige6 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy6 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP