X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

David Dahl to the Rangers - Fantasy Impact

It's been a rough journey through the majors so far for David Dahl. The potential has been there for the former 10th overall pick, but he has been plagued by injuries nearly every season. A torn hamstring in 2013 and a lacerated spleen in 2015 cost him time in the minors, a stress fracture in a rib and back spasms cost him most of 2017, a fractured foot sidelined him for a couple months in 2018 and then an ankle injury cut short his breakout 2019 campaign.

In 2020, his poor offensive performance was likely due to a shoulder injury that started bothering Dahl in January that he had attempted to play through before eventually undergoing surgery in September.

After the Rockies parted ways with Dahl this offseason, the Texas Rangers decided to take a chance on Dahl and signed him to a one-year "prove it" deal. He'll likely take over in left field for the departing Shin-Soo Choo, but the two questions for Dahl are can he stay healthy, and what kind of value can he provide in fantasy? Let's take a look.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Dahl-lar Menu Fantasy Deals

It won't come as a surprise to anyone that Dahl's injury history will make it harder to predict how he will do in Texas this year. So the way we'll tackle this is by starting off with what Dahl is capable of if he remains healthy for a full season, and then we'll take a look at what to reasonably expect out of him assuming he misses time.

Throughout his career in the Rockies farm system, Dahl showed potential as a likely 15-homer, 15-steal guy with the possibility of a 20-20 performance while hitting for a solid-to-high average. His best year of full-season ball came in 2016, when he hit .314 with a .963 OPS, 18 home runs and 17 steals in 92 games as he bounced back from having his spleen removed in 2015. Fantasy managers saw a glimpse of that version of Dahl in 2019, when he appeared in a career-high 100 games with the Rockies and hit .302 with an .877 OPS, 15 home runs and 61 RBI, albeit with only four steals. If you projected Dahl's numbers out over a full season, he was on pace to hit 25 home runs before his injury — and that was down from the rate he had in 2018 in which he was on pace for a 34-home run season. And Dahl was hitting for a good average even in limited playing time, as he had a career .297 average over his first three seasons with his lowest mark a .273 average in 2018.

You could see the potential in Dahl's bat between the injuries, but then 2020 happened and Dahl struggled all season long. Besides slashing a career-worst .183/.222/.247, Dahl had a career-high 28.3 percent strikeout rate, a career-low 4.0 percent walk rate and he struggled to make hard contact. His 22.7 percent hard-hit rate, 3.0 barrel percentage and 85.9 mph average exit velocity were all career-lows for him. Most of that dip in hard contact though is likely as a result of playing through the shoulder injury, and it's entirely likely that all those numbers go back up in 2021 with the shoulder no longer a factor.

But assuming that Dahl can have a full, healthy season this year, the biggest concern fantasy managers should have is the dreaded Coors Field Splits. Check out Dahl's career splits:

BA OBP SLG ISO HR HR/FB
Home .318 .361 .556 .239 25 18.1%
Away .248 .302 .420 .172 13 13.1%

Oof. Need I say more? On one hand Dahl has shown some pop in the minors, but he has definitely benefitted from playing at Coors Field and that might not spell good news for his value in Texas. Whereas before we had established that Dahl had been on track for 25 to 35 home runs over a full healthy season, moving to Texas it's possible that a more realistic prediction for Dahl is 15 to 25 homers based on these splits.

Now the one thing that Dahl showed in the minors that has not translated into his major league career so far is stolen bases. He swiped 12 bags in his first year of pro ball, and from 2014 to 2016 Dahl averaged 20 steals per season. But the injuries that have limited his playing time have also effected his steals, as he has 15 career steals over 264 games. It's a stretch for sure, but it's possible a fully healthy Dahl could steal 10 to 15 bases with the Rangers. Especially considering the aggressiveness in stealing that Texas displayed in 2020. Despite having the fewest stolen base opportunities in the majors, the Rangers' 9.2 percent stolen base attempt rate was the highest out of any team and nearly double the league average of 4.9 percent. So Dahl could see a boost being on a team that's more aggressive with their baserunning.

 

2021 Outlook

So where does that leave us with Dahl in Texas? Assuming a full, healthy season from Dahl, fantasy managers should expect an average somewhere around .255 to .280 with about 15 to 20 home runs and 10 (maybe 15) steals. The safer bet when you take into consideration his injury history is probably 12 to 15 homers and 5 to 10 steals, but the average should still be between .255 and .280. A good full season comparison for Dahl would be something between Andrew Benintendi and Kevin Pillar's 2019 campaigns.

He currently owns an ADP of 305 — basically a borderline late-round target. You're not likely to roster him in the majority of standard leagues barring a major mid-season hot streak, but in deeper leagues he'll be worth some consideration very late in drafts. Make sure to keep an eye on him this year in case he finally manages to shake off the injury bug and put it all together.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Conley8 mins ago

Resting Against Jazz
Kenyon Martin Jr.15 mins ago

Out On Sunday
Keyonte George21 mins ago

On The Shelf For Fourth Straight Game
Cole Anthony25 mins ago

Doesn't Return On Sunday
Jordan Clarkson27 mins ago

Exits Jazz Lineup Sunday
Kris Dunn34 mins ago

Out On Sunday
Norman Powell40 mins ago

Returns To Clippers Lineup Sunday
Igor Shesterkin57 mins ago

Remains In Rangers Crease Sunday
John Gibson1 hour ago

Still Out On Sunday
Nick Bjugstad1 hour ago

Returns For Utah Sunday
Filip Chytil1 hour ago

Questionable For Sunday
Jiri Kulich2 hours ago

In Concussion Protocol
Adam Pelech2 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Zach Hyman2 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Bailey Falter2 hours ago

Ready To Go For Monday
Yu Darvish2 hours ago

Dealing With Fatigue
Clarke Schmidt2 hours ago

Won't Start On Monday
Mark Leiter Jr.2 hours ago

Should Be Ready For Opening Day
David Bednar2 hours ago

Not Officially Named Closer
Yoán Moncada3 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Could Land On Injured List
NFL3 hours ago

Keith Taylor Signs With Falcons
NFL3 hours ago

Storm Norton Back With Atlanta
Ronnie Rivers4 hours ago

Re-Ups With Rams
Mason Adams4 hours ago

Diagnosed With Flex Strain
Joey Gallo4 hours ago

White Sox Release Joey Gallo
Sean Burke5 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Jung Hoo Lee5 hours ago

Expected To Remain Sidelined For A Few Days
Max Kepler5 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday After Collision
Eiberson Castellano5 hours ago

Could Win Bullpen Job
Kyle Freeland5 hours ago

Rockies Name Kyle Freeland Their Starter For Opening Day
Royce Lewis5 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Ramón Urías5 hours ago

Ramon Urias Expected To Return On Thursday
Emmanuel Rivera5 hours ago

Dealing With Sore Shoulder
Ronny Mauricio6 hours ago

Won't Play In Spring Training Games
Nathan Eovaldi6 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Framber Valdez6 hours ago

Will Start For Astros On Opening Day
Spencer Strider6 hours ago

To Make Spring Debut On Monday
Gleyber Torres6 hours ago

Scratched With Quad Contusion
Caleb Martin6 hours ago

Ruled Out On Sunday
De'Andre Hunter6 hours ago

Starting On Sunday Afternoon
Evan Mobley6 hours ago

Won't Face Orlando On Sunday
New York Jets6 hours ago

Derrick Nnadi Signing With Jets
Donovan Mitchell6 hours ago

Returning Versus Orlando
Cole Anthony7 hours ago

Back On Sunday
Washington Commanders7 hours ago

Eddie Goldman Joins Commanders On One-Year Deal
Cooper Rush7 hours ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Ravens
Baltimore Ravens9 hours ago

Ben Cleveland Remaining With Ravens
Seattle Seahawks9 hours ago

Shemar Jean-Charles Signing With Seahawks
Velus Jones Jr.10 hours ago

Signs With Saints
Christopher Bell11 hours ago

Quest For Four Wins In A Row Just Got More Difficult
Kyle Larson11 hours ago

Should Contend For Another Win At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney11 hours ago

Once Again The Chalk DFS Pick At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain11 hours ago

Fastest In Practice At Las Vegas
Chris Buescher11 hours ago

Has Sneaky Upside This Weekend
Quinton Byfield11 hours ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Contest
Chase Elliott12 hours ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin12 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov12 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Flyers On Saturday
William Byron12 hours ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick12 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli12 hours ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin12 hours ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin12 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar12 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR12 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski12 hours ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones12 hours ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez12 hours ago

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar13 hours ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece13 hours ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano14 hours ago

Likely To Lead At Las Vegas, But Will He Lead Enough For DFS Consideration?
Michael McDowell14 hours ago

Wins Spire Motorsports' First Pole At Las Vegas
Austin Cindric14 hours ago

Qualifies Third But Is Almost Guaranteed To Lose Spots
Chase Briscoe14 hours ago

Las Vegas Performance Hard To Predict
Ty Gibbs14 hours ago

A Solid DFS Option In Theory
Shane Van Gisbergen14 hours ago

Too Inexperienced At Las Vegas For DFS Consideration
Jordan Mason20 hours ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
RJ Barrett22 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Sunday
Immanuel Quickley22 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Jerami Grant22 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Sunday
Marcus Smart22 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Anfernee Simons22 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Sunday
Christian Braun22 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Aaron Gordon22 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jamal Murray22 hours ago

Will Play On Saturday Night
Nikola Jokić22 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Cleared To Suit Up Versus The Wizards
Dee Eskridge23 hours ago

Sticking With Dolphins
JuJu Smith-Schuster23 hours ago

Returning To Chiefs
Tennessee Titans24 hours ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Parris Campbell24 hours ago

Headed To Dallas
Jiri Kulich24 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tyler Myers1 day ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov1 day ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Joel Armia1 day ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk1 day ago

Available Saturday
Adam Fox1 day ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Philadelphia Eagles1 day ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Kirk Cousins1 day ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Aaron Rodgers1 day ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Washington Commanders1 day ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets1 day ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Los Angeles Chargers1 day ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani2 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos2 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson2 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA2 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos3 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman4 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips4 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter4 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre5 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young5 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim5 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy5 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee5 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF