RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~45 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~50
ANALYSIS: Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller has always been Derek Carr's No. 1 option in the passing game in his first three seasons as a starter. He's averaged 8.4 targets per game across 46 fully healthy games. But 2022 will be different. Not only did the Raiders trade for one of the best receivers in the league in Davante Adams, but they also have an ascending homegrown talent in Hunter Renfrow.
Last season, Waller, Adams, and Renfrow combined to average nearly 27 targets per game. Luckily for all three guys, the Raiders did throw the ball almost 37 times per game last season. There's a new coaching staff this season with Josh McDaniels at the helm, but the Raiders are still likely to be throwing a lot, given the high-powered offenses in the AFC West. The target funnel is sure to be narrow, with the following best-receiving options being Demarcus Robinson and Keelan Cole Sr.
Still, we should expect some regression from all three of the top pass-catchers, including Waller. By default, Waller isn't going to average 8.4 targets (and 1.5 red-zone targets) per game like he has the last two seasons, but he still shouldn't have any trouble producing as a mid-range TE1.
In 2021, we discussed Waller competing with Travis Kelce for the overall TE1 spot. In 2022, Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and maybe even Dalton Schultz could all realistically finish higher than Waller.
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