RADIO
Drafting wide receivers early and often is all the rage this year. Heck, in a standard 12-team league, you often see 7-8 wide receivers go in the first round and just about any of those top guys could finish as the WR1 and it wouldn't surprise us.
The last time we saw a receiver make a huge jump from outside the top 10 to finish as the WR1 was in 2021 when Cooper Kupp made the leap from WR26 to the top spot and no receiver has ever held onto the top spot two years in a row.
So, which wide receivers who are being drafted outside the first round have overall WR1 upside for fantasy football this year? Here are some of my dark-horse picks who might have a path to a WR1 finish.
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Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Could a rookie finish the year as the WR1? Well, we haven't seen a rookie wide receiver this polished since...well, I don't think we have ever!
Harrison has the genetics going for him and is coming out of Ohio State where they grow NFL receivers on Buckeye trees (see Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba). NFL scouts have raved about how perfectly he runs routes and how advanced he is already in that aspect of his game.
He comes into Arizona as the unquestioned WR1 as Kyler Murray's favorite returning target happens to play the tight-end position. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are fine players, but neither should be a threat to Harrison in terms of the pecking order for targets.
How good can this offense be with a healthy Kyler Murray for a full season? A lot of folks think they'll be pretty good with Harrison and Trey McBride leading the way and Murray's rushing ability giving defense fits. But will Arizona throw enough (and score enough) for Harrison to have a shot at the top WR spot?
Marvin Harrison
The BEST Round 2 pick this year.
⁃ Perfectly valued in drafts
⁃ Tied to good/great QB play
⁃ Best college WR prospect ever
- Will see immediate volume in AZOnly “concern” is he’s a rookie…
Prediction: Top 10 PPR WR in 2024
pic.twitter.com/FPTWjvuMs2 https://t.co/2osYtosCpI
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) August 21, 2024
Well, the last true alpha receiver that Murray played with was DeAndre Hopkins. Murray helped Hopkins finish as the WR5 in 2020 as Hopkins totaled the second-most receiving yards in the NFL that season (1,407) but managed just six touchdowns. Davante Adams had 18 that year and Tyreek Hill had 15. If Nuk catches another 4-5 TDs that season, he probably finishes second overall behind Adams (who had just a monster year with 25.6 PPG).
The sky is the limit for Harrison. If this team overachieves this year and Harrison finds his way into the end zone often, then maybe, just maybe, he's able to post that WR1 finish.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
As previously mentioned in the intro, Kupp was a former WR1 finisher in 2021 when he caught a league-high 145 balls for a league-best 1,947 yards. Since then, he hasn't been able to stay healthy, playing just nine games in 2022 and 12 games last year.
It was rookie Puka Nacua who stole the show last season for the Rams, but now he's the one who's dinged up this preseason while Kupp is supposedly the healthiest he's been in years.
The pathway to a WR1 finish for Kupp is contingent upon him staying healthy all season and he probably needs Nacua to miss some time, too, to get it done. The two receivers certainly can coexist, but neither player is going to get the volume of targets needed to be the WR1 when they're both on the field at the same time and having to share touches with Kyren Williams and a strong Rams running game.
Cooper Kupp
Stafford & Kupp played 8 games together last season where BOTH were healthy.
Kupp finished a Top 5 WR in 38% of them.
Context: 2023 Top 5 WR finish rates
⁃ Hill 60%
⁃ Lamb: 31%
⁃ Nacua: 25%
⁃ St. Brown: 20%
⁃ AJ Brown: 19%pic.twitter.com/uZGKJI0RxS— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) August 27, 2024
The sure-handed Kupp has a special bond with Matthew Stafford and could easily bounce back in a big way this year, especially if Puka's injury drags into the regular season or nags him throughout the season. Kupp feels like a nice value at an ADP of 35, and you simply don't often get a player of his caliber in the third round.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
London finished last season as the WR45 and yet I am supposed to make the case that he could be the WR1 this season. That seems like a stretch, but why not -- let's go for it.
Most experts are expecting a breakout campaign from London this season with Kirk Cousins coming to Atlanta to stabilize the Falcons' passing game. In his first two seasons, London has failed to top 1,000 yards receiving but was stuck playing in a run-first offense where he was targeted just an average of 113 times per season.
On top of that, London was the victim of some very mediocre quarterback play, having to catch passes from Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke, and Desmond Ridder. Of 110 targets last season, only 73 of those were deemed "catchable targets" and London reeled in 69 of those for 905 yards.
So the math for London here is simple. If we can project him for an increase of 2-3 targets per game (based on a new offense) and we increase the percentage of catchable targets from 66% to 80% (Cousins was at 82% catchable pass rate last season), now we are talking about 8.5-9.0 catches per game.
Over 17 games, that puts London firmly in the running for the 130+ reception range needed to top the charts (CeeDee Lamb had 135 last season).
I might be too low on Drake London. With adequate QB play where he doesn’t have to constantly stop or break off his route for poorly thrown balls, he might just go crazy. pic.twitter.com/5pgnj760UF
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) August 27, 2024
Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney are nice pieces in this Atlanta passing attack that should keep defenses honest, freeing up London in single coverage often.
We've seen Captain Kirk lead his top receiver to a WR1 finish as recently as 2022 when Justin Jefferson caught 128 balls for 1,809 yards in Minnesota, why couldn't he do the same with London? At just 23 years old, we haven't seen the ceiling for the 6-foot-4 receiver yet and Cousins is the type of pocket passer who could unleash London's true potential.
The Real Long Shots
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
It seems like the entire fantasy community has been rallying around Rice recently with the assumption that he is going to be able to play a full season without suspension. Mix in Marquise Brown being hurt, Travis Kelce getting older, and Xavier Worthy having a limited route tree and you end up with Rice being the most likely to lead the Chiefs in receiving this season.
Rice already scored seven touchdowns in his rookie year. It seems like it's well within the range of outcomes for him to increase his yardage total by 25-30% this year and score an additional 3-4 TDs. The Chiefs offense is going to be lethal once again.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
I have written about McLaurin several times already this preseason and I'm very bullish on him this year. We've seen what he can do with below-average QBs, what if Jayden Daniels is better than anyone expects him to be and this Commanders offense ends up being good?
McLaurin should see an increase in targets, and if he's used on a lot of shorter routes, his catchable targets (and thus receptions) should go up as well. The only place he's struggled to separate himself has been in the red zone as his career-high in touchdowns in seven, set back in his rookie season of 2019.
He'll need to score double-digit TDs if he's going to surpass the rest of the receiving pack for that top spot.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
Moore finished the 2023 season with 1,365 yards -- good for the sixth most in the NFL. While the Bears have added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to the receivers room, I expect Moore will still eat first when it comes to the pecking order in Chicago this season.
And the same logic applies to Caleb Williams here as it does to Jayden Daniels -- what if he's good? The entire offense gets elevated and Moore could see even more catchable targets this season than he did last year (100).
Moore can function as a possession receiver and also be a home-run hitter when Chicago needs him to be. He could thrive this season in this offense and put up some gaudy stats in the process.
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