RADIO
Finding an elite running back has been the goal of fantasy football for many years, but it's been getting tougher each year with the running back position being devalued league-wide and many teams using committees of two or even three backs to handle the work.
While the odds of Christian McCaffrey repeating as the RB1 this year are high, anything can happen during a 17-game season. We certainly aren't wishing injury upon CMC or anything, but injuries happen often in this league and if McCaffrey goes down for an extended time will it be Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson who steps up and claims the top spot?
But you're already drafting those players in the first round. Let's get a little crazy here and discuss some of the backs being taken after the first round who still have the type of league-winning upside if they were to finish as the overall RB1 this season.
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Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
I am very much enamored with the Chiefs offense this season, and I am actively trying to grab a piece or two of this high-octane attack in nearly every draft. Pacheco enjoyed a very productive sophomore season last year, piling up 1,179 scrimmage yards in 14 games after contributing 960 scrimmage yards as a rookie.
The Chiefs are indeed a pass-first offense, ranking seventh in the league with a 60.3% passing play rate last season. But they use the passing game to set up a very efficient run game, as Pacheco averaged 4.6 YPC in 2023 on 14.6 carries per game.
Pacheco was also more involved in the passing game last year than in his rookie season, catching 44 balls on 49 targets and nearly doubling his receiving yards total from 130 (2022) to 244 (2023). Still, he finished as the RB14 in PPR scoring, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game.
If he's going to be the RB1, we are looking for at least 21-22 points per game. How does he get there?
My man Michael Florio is driving the Pacheco bus this preseason and lays out very succinctly all the reasons why he loves No. 10 this year.
I’m sure many wondering why I have Pacheco RB4 so:
- 19 fantasy PPG in games with 60+ % of snaps (would be RB3)
- target rate doubled prev year and only got higher as year went on
- Highest % of teams rush TDs (dominated GL work)
- KC could be leagues best offense
- Thin RB room https://t.co/BnYjtEZfWb— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 21, 2024
He mentions that Pacheco led the RB room in rushing TDs and goal-line work, but he handled just 58.3% of the red zone carries for Kansas City - that's a number that he can improve upon this season.
He finished with nine total touchdowns last year, but if we see his touches increase around the goal line and if we get a full season from him, we are looking at 12-15 touchdowns this season with the Kansas City offense looking like it will be quite prolific again.
His main competition for catches on third down was Jerick McKinnon, who is now a free agent. It's just Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a bunch of unproven youngsters behind him now in the running back room. If Pacheco becomes a true every-down back and pushes 20 touches per game this season, he could run for 1,500 yards and catch 60+ passes.
Maybe it's a stretch, but 1,500 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns, and 60 receptions for 400 yards gets us up over 20 points per game.
Pacheco has proven himself to be a hard-nosed runner between the tackles and versatile enough to be a major weapon out of the backfield. He has Reid and Mahomes trust - he just needs to stay healthy for a full season.
It's been a while since Andy Reid has had a bell-cow running back, but look no further than 2013 Jamaal Charles (1,980 scrimmage yards, 19 TD) or 2017 Kareem Hunt (1,782 scrimmage yards, 11 TD) to see what type of production Pacheco could approach in a full season in this offense.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Williams was incredible in 2023 and a league-winner for a lot of managers. He was one of only two backs to average 21 PPR fantasy points per game with the other back being our consensus number one pick - Christian McCaffrey.
So we aren't taking a giant leap in logic here to think last season's RB2 could be this season's RB1, right?
If filtering to only include games the RB started in, here’s where Kyren Williams ranks👀 pic.twitter.com/JrxKknz4gj
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 22, 2024
But after posting a monster sophomore season, Williams is being drafted as the RB7 with an ADP of around 15.
The main reason that Williams isn't a first-rounder (other than everyone's obsession with receivers) is that the Rams drafted Blake Corum out of Michigan in the third round. The presence of Corum on the roster and the fact that the Rams used some significant draft capital in a third-round pick to snag him suggests that they may want to lighten Williams's load this season.
But what if Corum is more of an insurance policy than anything? We have a lot of folks assuming that Corum will eat into Williams's touches, but what if Sean McVay just absolutely loves Williams and wants to lean on him again this year - the same way that he did with Todd Gurley in 2017 and 2018?
This Rams offense should be very good again this season with Cooper Kupp healthy (and hopefully Puka Nacua, too), and McVay's run schemes are as solid as anyone's - as we saw with Williams averaging 5.0 yards per carry last season.
Most managers are drafting Williams for his floor, but there's still a ceiling here if McVay continues to feed his favorite back, especially in the Red Zone (15 touchdowns last season).
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
The case for Achane is pretty easy to make. He was simply incredible in his rookie season on a per-touch basis, averaging 7.7 yards every time he touched the football. The math is pretty easy here - if he increases his touches but maintains even 60% of that efficiency - he will score a lot of fantasy points this season.
He finished as the RB5 on a per-gam basis, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game in PPR formats while touching the football only 140 times. That's just insanity when you consider that his teammate Mostert finished just ahead of him and handled 234 touches in the same offense.
De'Von Achane ran 36.4% of his preszn routes from the slot or out wide (per PFF). If this usage holds... 🚀🚀
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 23, 2024
Achane's speed and athleticism were on full display as he broke off huge plays in the running and passing game. He was perfectly suited for the offensive stylings of Mike McDaniel, who brilliantly schemed him the ball in ways where he could utilize his quickness and agility.
So, the path to an RB1 finish comes down to three things.
First, can he stay healthy for a full 17-game schedule? Achane missed six games last year and is only 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds. And if he does have his workload increased (which we want for fantasy purposes), can his body withstand the extra hits that come with the extra touches?
Secondly, can he maintain his ultra-efficient rates from last season? This would be surprising if he did because the league knows about him now, and his 11 touchdowns on only 140 touches were very likely an exception, which is not something we can expect going forward.
However, he doesn't need to average 7.8 yards per carry if he sees an uptick in usage, either. He's running behind an excellent offensive line, and McDaniel is almost definitely going to continue to deploy him as a receiver even more often this year, which should translate to a larger volume of catches.
And lastly, can Raheem Mostert stay healthy? Because there's a lot of mileage on those tires and an injury to Mostert would almost certainly lead to more carries for Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright. If Mostert is healthy all season, he's going to vulture touchdowns as the short-yardage back and get just enough touches to hold down Achane's ceiling.
In summary, for Achane to take the top spot, he's going to have to touch the ball more than 12.7 times per game this season and play more than 11 games this year. He's certainly shown that he's good enough to do it if he gets the ball in his hands more often, and this scheme in Miami is perfect for his skill set.
The Real Long Shots
Kenneth Walker III - Seattle Seahawks
KW3 is being drafted as the RB17 and often goes in the fourth round, but I know a lot of sharp NFL folks who are all over him this year to break out after he finished last year as somewhat of a disappointment at RB20. The one thing going for him is that Zach Charbonnet failed to establish himself last season and might not force his way into a timeshare as much as people thought he would.
Walker is an electric runner, and Seattle attempted to upgrade what was a pretty bad offensive line last season with the hopes that they could establish the run this year.
Walker averaged 4.1 yards per carry behind a bad line last year and 8.9 yards per reception in the passing game. If he has bigger roles to run through, he's going to break off some big gainers, and if he sees his involvement in the passing game grow, we are looking at close to 300 total touches for the dynamic Walker.
David Montgomery - Detroit Lions
The path for Monty is entirely dependent on several things happening. CMC gets hurt, Kyren is forced into a timeshare by Corum, and then Jahmyr Gibbs ends up missing a large chunk of time.
In that offense, if Monty ends up with 300 touches instead of the 235 he had last year and takes over Gibbs' passing game work, then he could conceivably lead the league in yards from scrimmage...and we already know how much they love to use him on the goal line.
Raheem Mostert - Miami Dolphins
This one is pretty simple and is similar to the scenario for Montgomery. The Miami backs combined for some massive production last season just like Detroit's did. If Achane gets banged up - and we know a lot has been made of his size and potential frailty - then Mostert sees more carries and more very valuable targets in the passing game.
Yes, Jaylen Wright would certainly work his way in there, but Mostert could replicate his 1,000-yard season with ease and come close to those 18 touchdowns that carried him to the RB4 finish last year with even more receptions and receiving yards.
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