D'Andre Swift and David Montgomery 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift has been an efficient and explosive weapon since entering the league in 2020, but he's struggled to stay healthy and command a large workload on a weekly basis.

In 2022, Jamaal Williams rushed for over 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns sharing a backfield with Swift, meaning Swift's touchdown upside was limited with Williams in the short-yardage role. This offseason, Detroit signed former Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery to seemingly take on Williams' former role. While a 17-touchdown season isn't smart to chase in fantasy, Montgomery suddenly finds himself behind one of the league's best offensive lines in one of the league's best offensive attacks.

Both players are going to be on fantasy football radars ahead of the 2023 season, but what can we expect out of the 1-2 punch? How high should they be drafted and what are their floors and ceilings? Let's examine the Lions' backfield in this edition of free agency fallouts!

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David Montgomery 2022 Season Review

In 16 games for Chicago, Montgomery rushed 201 times for 801 yards and five touchdowns, adding 34 receptions for an additional 316 yards and one receiving score. Montgomery finished as the RB23 in half-PPR formats and posted 10.0 fantasy points per game. He produced four RB1 finishes and eight RB2 finishes during his 2022 campaign.

Ultimately, it wasn't a bad season considering the Bears scored the 23rd-most points per game and he was stuck in a backfield with Khalil Herbert and one of the NFL's best rushing quarterbacks in Justin Fields.

In fact, he was a much more efficient ball carrier and receiver than Jamaal Williams in 2022 -- as we'll dive into below.

D'Andre Swift 2022 Season Review

In 14 games, Swift handled 93 carries for 517 yards and five rushing touchdowns, adding 41 receptions on 63 targets for 328 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He finished as the RB22 overall (half-PPR) after being drafted among the top 10 running back in preseason ADP.

Swift ranked No. 2 in yards per touch (6.3) and yards created per touch (4.58), No. 5 in breakaway run rate (8.1 percent), and No. 8 in true yards per carry (4.9). However, Detroit insisted on feeding a much less efficient Williams, who ranked 50th, 55th, 50th, and 54th in those categories, respectively. Detroit has been apprehensive about giving Swift a larger workload despite how effective he's been with limited touches.

Will David Montgomery get the Jamaal Williams Role?

It's important to emphasize that we should not expect Montgomery to score 17 touchdowns just because Williams did. A touchdown rate as high as Williams' in 2022 is unsustainable.

That said, even in a bad offense, Montgomery was largely the more efficient player between the two last season. He topped Williams in receptions per game, true yards per carry, juke rate, and yards created per touch. The main difference between the two was the number of red zone rushing attempts that turned into touchdowns. Needless to say, Detroit was in scoring position more often than Chicago -- and Williams handled a league-high 60 red zone rushes. Meanwhile, Montgomery saw just 34 red zone rushes.

The argument is strong for Montgomery being a better overall player than Williams, as he was better on a per-touch basis and is a far superior receiving option. It's tough to simply pencil in Montgomery for the same workload and opportunity as Williams, but the team has already shown it won't deploy Swift as a full-fledged workhorse, so we can expect him to see valuable work around the goal line and have at least close to the 51-percent opportunity share Williams saw last season.

How does Montgomery Affect Swift?

Swift fantasy truthers may want to buckle up because Montgomery's presence in the Lions' backfield could spell bad news for the former Georgia Bulldog. Not only is Montgomery viewed as the more durable between-the-tackles grinder, but his receiving skill set could mean Swift has some passing game work taken from him, too. Swift needs high-end passing game volume to remain a solid RB2 in fantasy, so that would be his worst-case-scenario.

However, there's also a chance Detroit brought in Montgomery purely to handle the early-down and short-yardage work, as Swift is still one of the best receivers options out of the backfield in the NFL. The Lions were always going to bring in another back since Swift has struggled to stay on the field or has been banged up even when he is active, so the team adding Montgomery instead of a rookie running back in the 2023 class could be the better outcome for Swift.

Ultimately, Swift has been with the organization for three years and has more familiarity with quarterback Jared Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, so we shouldn't expect him to be completely erased by Montgomery's arrival.

Swift and Montgomery 2023 Fantasy Outlook

In early FFPC Best Ball drafts, Swift is coming off the board at the RB20 spot, while Montgomery is in the RB19 chair. That said, having exposure to both is a good idea for volume Best Ball drafters. In PPR leagues, Swift should be the priority, while Montgomery is likely the better bet in standard formats. Since FFPC Best Ball leagues utilize half-PPR scoring, the two being ranked right next to one another makes sense.

If either running back has to miss time, the healthy back will have immediate top-five RB upside in one of the league's best offenses. Second-year wideout Jameson Williams will miss the first six games thanks to a suspension, meaning there will potentially be more RB targets and carries available early on in the year.

While Swift has been a divisive player among fantasy analysts, his efficiency and PPR upside make him worth a top-20 RB selection. The same goes for Montgomery for his potential for touchdown upside in a well-oiled machine. Obviously, neither player will have a Derrick Henry-like workload, but both are strong targets over some "starting" running backs like Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, and Isiah Pacheco. Ultimately, the era of "workhorse" running backs is coming to an end, so targeting efficient back in great offenses is a popular strategy, even if the size of their workload is not clear.

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