X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Damien Williams Is a Must-Draft... and Must-Sell

Pierre Camus discusses the fluctuating fantasy football value of Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams. He is a player that is worth drafting in redraft leagues but could be a sell-high in dynasty at the same time.

“You know what? Damien Williams is our starter,” said Chiefs RB coach Eric Bieniemy shortly before fantasy football Twitter burned down. My initial reaction to this: "No kidding, what are your other options?" Regardless, Damien Williams, it's now your turn.

I don't just mean it's his chance to earn a starting gig on an NFL team, it's his turn to be this year's overhyped fantasy special. Every year, we inflate one player's perceived value and ADP so much, it becomes impossible for them to reach expectations. Last year, David Johnson and Dalvin Cook had unrealistic expectations set on them coming off major injuries. Royce Freeman and Alex Collins were third-round picks because they were talented players in run-heavy offenses. Didn't matter so much, did it? Williams was already a solid third-round pick and has now moved up to the second round based on the recent hype.

He does inherit a pretty nice position as the featured back in the league's best offense from 2018. But there are some underlying issues that could betray his fantasy value and his value will never be higher than it is right now. I suggest a unique proposition in this situation.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

A Case for Buying, then Selling

Williams was the starting running back to end last season in KC, signed a two-year extension, and Spencer Ware is gone. Williams is definitely the starter this year and should rightfully be hailed as a high draft pick. The second round may be a bit much but if he's available in the early portion of the third round and you can get him as your RB2, go for it. Then, immediately trade him and do the same right now in dynasty. Let me explain...

Williams would have to come away with a season better than Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, and Nick Chubb in order to deserve his current ADP of 2.08 in redraft. He's going ahead of all those guys in most early mocks. Can he match their production?

We've already said why Freeman is a player to buy this year. If he just matches what he did in both 2015 and 2016, he can go for 1,500 total yards, 14 TD and well over 50 receptions. Assuming Fournette is capable of playing a 16-game schedule, he could do the exact same. He logged 1,342 scrimmage yards and 10 TD in 13 games as a rookie. In 10 games as the primary back, Chubb averaged 82.3 rushing yards, 14.9 receiving yards and 0.8 TD per game. Over a full season, that projects to 1,555 total yards and 13 TD.

In five games to end the season without Kareem Hunt, Williams' 16-game averages were 816 rushing yards, 454 receiving yards, and 19 TD. Looks pretty close to those other backs, which means his ADP is fair. The problem I have is that I don't see any way Williams scores 19 times and the floor is lower than those other three players. In redraft, you may be OK taking a chance because all of those RB have injury concerns. However, it's already a risk to assume he can carry the load over 16 games. Plus, both Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack could return the same redraft value as Williams and are going a full round later in early redraft mocks. Williams has tantalizing upside but I see too many reasons to be pessimistic about his return on investment.

 

Chief Concerns

As far as competition at running back, that's not the problem. I won't proclaim that rookies Darwin Thompson or James Williams are going to win over the job because that's unlikely. Carlos Hyde has been a serviceable back, averaging 4.2 yards per carry for San Francisco over four years before last year's forgettable tour with Cleveland and Jacksonville. I've never been a Hyde fan though and he doesn't necessarily fit this system too well. Darrel Williams is nothing more than depth. None of these players scare me off of Williams this year, although we have to admit Hyde could steal some red zone touches as a slightly bigger interior runner.

I'm one of the few who are coming out early to say that the Chiefs offense is due to decline. It would be hard for them to be any better than last year anyway, having put up 425.6 total yards and 35.3 points per game. Only the 2016 Saints and 2013 Broncos have matched that output in the past five seasons. If they are without their star wide receiver (who shall go unnamed) for part of the year, as they should, can they really handle losing him and Hunt while maintaining the same pace?

We also can't pretend that Williams has proven himself already. He had a good game in Week 14, tallying 123 scrimmage yards with two scores, then a big rushing day with 103 yards and another 37 through the air in Week 15 with a TD. Week 16 was bad (59 yards) but he had a huge game against Indy in the playoffs and scored three times against the Patriots despite being limited to 30 rushing yards. Even when he wasn't effective, he still scored for his team and fantasy owners. At least, if you were doing a playoff league.

Like Hunt before him, Williams was a touchdown machine because of the offensive system. While he could easily find double-digit scores again this year, the team may just score less in general because that's typically what happens after a prolific season where so many career highs were set. Regression is a real thing and no team or player is immune to it, especially when the schedule gets tougher. For what it's worth right now, the Chiefs project to have the fifth-toughest schedule in 2019.

Williams showed plenty last season but this is still a player that averaged 3.6 yards per carry in his first four NFL seasons. Sure, that was with the hapless Dolphins. But Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake each averaged well over four Y/A in their last couple of seasons in Miami. Williams has great breakaway straight-line speed but his agility is questionable, which is why he went undrafted despite coming out of Oklahoma five years ago. Simply put, he's no Kareem Hunt.

 

Selling in Dynasty (Before It's Too Late)

While you're taking less of a risk by selecting him in redraft, in dynasty you have to weigh things more carefully. Williams has been a nice find, but for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, he may not be the featured back for long if he or the offense stumbles this year.

Williams doesn't have a ton of mileage on his tires but is already 27 years old, which should be considered. While players his same age like Devonta Freeman and Le'Veon Bell have proven track records of being fantasy studs, Williams' value is still up in the air.

If someone in win-now mode is willing to give up Phillip Lindsay, Derrius Guice, or an unproven rookie like David Montgomery in order to acquire Williams, take that deal. Even if you don't sell during the preseason when his stock is near its peak, consider fielding offers later in the year in order to maximize return before the Chiefs draft a running back in 2020.

If you are taking part in a dynasty startup, Williams is the perfect player to draft and flip; the same holds true for redraft leagues. The early rounds are all about minimizing risk. While the thought of Williams dancing into the end zone 20 times seems great, I'd rather put my draft capital elsewhere.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake McCabe14 mins ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin19 mins ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Trevor Story27 mins ago

Homers In Wednesday Win
Hunter Goodman32 mins ago

Homers In Loss To Phillies
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.45 mins ago

Hits Two-Run HR Wednesday
Anthony Volpe49 mins ago

Hits Three-Run Homer Wednesday
Tommy Edman54 mins ago

Hits Two-Run Homer Wednesday
Logan O'Hoppe59 mins ago

Hits Grand Slam On Wednesday
Byron Buxton1 hour ago

Doubles, Homers, Drives In Two On Wednesday
Nico Hoerner1 hour ago

Swipes Two Bags On Wednesday
Oneil Cruz1 hour ago

Homers In Win Over Rays
Dylan Moore1 hour ago

Homers In Win Wednesday
Luis Arraez1 hour ago

Homers, Steals A Base In Win On Wednesday
Michael Conforto6 hours ago

Homers, Scores Three Runs
Jace Jung6 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 2 At Triple-A
Jon Singleton6 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Niko Goodrum6 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
Nick Kurtz6 hours ago

Belts Third Home Run In Last Four Games
Shohei Ohtani7 hours ago

Blasts Walk-Off Home Run
Zac Veen7 hours ago

Triples, Collects Four RBI At Triple-A On Wednesday
Zac Gallen7 hours ago

Strikes Out 13
Luke Waddell7 hours ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At Triple-A
Chandler Simpson8 hours ago

With A Two-Run Triple, Stolen Base On Wednesday
Los Angeles Chargers8 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
9 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals9 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell9 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers9 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday11 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets11 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford12 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis12 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet12 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dean Wade12 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Trae Young13 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Joel Embiid13 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin13 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil13 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm13 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Keaton Wallace13 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard13 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta14 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen14 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz14 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
15 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
15 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
15 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams16 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns17 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots17 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
18 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody18 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers18 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers20 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans20 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett20 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns20 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals21 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown21 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Bennedict Mathurin21 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner22 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford22 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday22 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis22 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown22 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham22 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis22 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard24 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel24 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko1 day ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young1 day ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge1 day ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips2 days ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud2 days ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba2 days ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry2 days ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere2 days ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno6 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres6 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer6 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum6 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.6 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira6 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks.Be sure to check all of our fantasy […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]