Dallas Cowboys 2024 Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Dallas Cowboys as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

Since 2019, Dallas has been one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL when Dak Prescott has been under center. Furthermore, when Prescott has been healthy, they've arguably been the best and most consistent since 2019. Looking forward to 2024, with the team's offseason moves at running back, many expect Dallas to become even more pass-heavy this season due to the lack of talent at running back. For fantasy managers, this is one of the more consolidated offenses in the NFL. Everything will flow through Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and arguably Jake Ferguson.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Quarterback

Dak Prescott: QB9, ADP 60

Prescott is the future Kirk Cousins. What does that mean? Last year, Cousins was the QB6 with a 19.3 PPG. He finished tied for QB12 in 2022 (18.3 PPG), QB12 in 2021 (19.0), QB12 in 2020 (19.0), QB17 in 2019 (16.7 PPG), QB14 in 2018 (18.1 PPG), QB8 in 2017 (18.0 PPG), QB6 in 2016 (19.3 PPG), and tied for QB12 in 2015 (18.3 PPG). In nine seasons as a starter, he’s finished as the QB12 or better in seven seasons. He has three finishes inside the top-10. More recently, he’s finished as a top-12 quarterback in four consecutive seasons.

Despite this, Cousins rarely gets the fantasy football respect he deserves. Prescott often falls victim to this, as well. The same applies to Cousins' standing regarding real-life, on-the-field quarterbacking. Prescott is not immune to the identical harsh judgment Cousins has found due to the all-important "QuArTeRbAcK wInS" stat.

Since 2019, Prescott has started 66 games. His per-game stats across those 66 contests over 17 games would equal 4,787 yards and 35 touchdowns. Since 2019, Prescott is second in passing yards per game. Only Patrick Mahomes has averaged more. Since that same time, Prescott is third in passing touchdowns per game among active quarterbacks, behind only Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Prescott is fourth in completion percentage since 2019 among active quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts behind Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, and Jimmy Garoppolo. He's eighth in yards per pass attempt using the same sample and fifth in quarterback rating behind Purdy, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Cousins. Pretty, pretty good, eh?

Prescott finished as the QB3 in 2019 with a 21.8 PPG average. He only played 4.5 games in 2020, but that didn't stop him from averaging 27.7 PPG and finishing as the QB1. In 2021, he finished as the QB11 with a 19.9 PPG average, QB9 in 2022 (18.5 PPG), and QB4 in 2023 (20.4 PPG). He's been outstanding, both from a fantasy football and real-life football standpoint. Courtesy of RotoViz, you can see what Prescott has been up to every week since 2019. He's been a QB1 60% of the time, and it's not just being a top-12 quarterback. As you can see below, Prescott has plenty of high-scoring games, with 18 games with over 30+ points, including three over 40+.

Since 2019, Prescott has had three seasons with a pass attempt per game average of over 37. Since then, Prescott has ranked fourth in pass attempts per game with a 36.3 average. Last season, Prescott was ninth in pass attempts per game at 34.7 among quarterbacks with at least seven starts. Based on their offseason moves, it's likely that Prescott will throw the ball even more in 2024 than he did last year. Dallas watched Tony Pollard leave in free agency, and the only thing they did to replace him was bring back Ezekiel Elliott. The starting running backs are currently slated to be Zeke and Rico Dowdle. Given that Dallas has the worst running back depth chart in the NFL, we could see Dallas become even more pass-heavy in 2024. We started to see that last season already.

From Weeks 1-6, Dallas' pass rate was 57.9%, ranked 27th. They had their Week 7 bye and operated an utterly different offense the rest of the season. From Week 8 until their playoff loss, the Cowboys' pass rate rose to 67%. What did that look like for Prescott? In Weeks 1-6, he averaged 31.7 pass attempts and 222.2 passing yards per game. Over the final 12 games of their season, Prescott averaged 38.3 pass attempts and 298.8 passing yards per game. His passing touchdown per game average increased from 1.5 in Weeks 1-6 to 2.75 for the remainder of the season. If we extrapolate his final 12 games, Prescott would have finished with 5,080 yards and 47 touchdowns. How did all of that translate to fantasy football? From Weeks 7-17, Prescott averaged 23.8 PPG and was the QB2 during that stretch.

Based on Dallas' offensive structure, the Cowboys' offense is likely to resemble the one we saw in the second half of last season. That should be music to every fantasy manager's ears. Since Prescott does not use his legs like other elite fantasy quarterbacks, to compensate, Prescott needs elite passing volume. He should have that in waves this upcoming season. How often do we expect Dallas to hand the ball off to Dowdle and Elliott? This offense will flow very heavily through Prescott and the passing game. Since Prescott does not use his legs, it'll be challenging to match the upside Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all possess. However, at QB9, those concerns are all but baked into his price. He's a good value this season.

Verdict: Buy Dak Prescott

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott: RB40, ADP 122
Rico Dowdle: RB46, ADP 146

Considering just how potent the Dallas offense has been with Prescott under center, it's astonishing that they haven't drafted a running back as an RB3. This point makes both of these players interesting. Dallas is likely to finish as a top-five scoring offense again this season. This is what they've done anytime Prescott has been healthy since 2019. The Cowboys are 10th in the NFL since 2019 in rushing touchdowns with 85. However, they'd rank even higher had Prescott not missed 16 games in that span due to injury.

Cowboys offense over the past five years:

2019: 27.1 points per game (No. 6)
2020 pre-Dak injury: 32.6 (No. 2)
2021: 31.2 (No. 1)
2022 post-Dak injury: 32.5 (No. 1)
2023: 29.9 (No. 1)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2024

Many fantasy managers likely want nothing to do with Elliott, believing he's washed. That may very well be true, but that may not matter. Elliott is likely to be the Cowboys' short-yardage and goal-line back. Since 2019, including 16 games missed by Prescott, Dallas has averaged 1.02 rushing touchdowns per game. This shouldn't be all that surprising. We saw this same song and dance in 2022, Zeke's last season with Dallas. That year, Elliott was inefficient. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 1.5 yards after contact per attempt. Both were some of the worst numbers among qualifying running backs.

Nonetheless, Elliott still finished with 12 touchdowns, and here's the wild thing: Prescott missed five games! In the five games Prescott missed, they averaged 21.4 PPG compared to 30 PPG when he was the starter. Could Zeke have scored even more had Prescott been healthy for all 17 games? There's an excellent chance. For all of Elliott's deficiencies (and there are plenty), he has continued to show he can do one thing -- handle volume. In 2022, Elliott had 248 touches in 15 games, and this past season, with the New England Patriots, Elliott had 235 touches in 17 games, playing as the No. 2 running back behind Rhamondre Stevenson at times.

Rico Dowdle touches per season
NFL: 106, 0, 7
CFB: 128, 137, 77, 148
HS: 215, 22, 41

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 21, 2024

On the flip side, Dowdle has not recorded 150 touches in a season since high school. Are we to believe he will be handed 200+ touches now in the NFL? It seems a bit hard to believe. Last year, Zeke was on the field for 326 pass plays and pass-blocked on 69. Dowdle was on the field for just 151 pass plays and was asked to pass-block only 21 times. In 2022, Zeke played on 339 pass plays. Pollard had 348. Elliott stayed in to pass-block on 52 of those 339 snaps and earned a 61.1 PFF pass-blocking grade.

In 2023, his PFF pass-blocking grade dropped to 37.1, which was still better than Dowdle's 34.1. From 2016-2022, Elliott's pass-blocking PFF grades have ranged from 40.2 and 64.1. Elliott has graded as a far better pass-blocker and has significantly more experience doing it. With how pass-heavy the Cowboys are expected to be this season, this skill set will likely result in Elliott playing more snaps for Dallas this season.

We talked about Elliott's inefficiency last season, finishing with a 3.8-yard per carry and a 1.5-yard after-contact per attempt average, but we haven't discussed that Dowdle wasn't much better. Dowdle averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 1.9 yards after contact per attempt, slightly better than Zeke's. However, he also ran behind a far superior offensive line and benefited from a passing attack that defenses needed to respect. Zeke didn't have that luxury in New England with Mac Jones.

The last time we saw Zeke in a Dallas uniform was in 2022. He finished as the RB15, averaging 12.6 half-PPR PPG. He had eight weeks, and he finished as a top-30 running back. He won't be winning any weeks, but it's certainly possible he will outplay his current ADP. One of the biggest reasons for this is his expected role in the red zone. Pollard had 72 total red-zone touches, the second most. He had 30 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line and 13 inside the 5-yard line, both of which were the sixth most among running backs. He was also third in red-zone targets. In 2022, Elliott had 35 red-zone rush attempts with the Cowboys, 14th most. He was third in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line with 26 and second in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line with 16. His expected role in the red zone and with scoring opportunities will likely result in Elliott outplaying his current ADP.

The risk with Elliott is simple. He's struggled the past two seasons, and you can see he's not remotely close to the same player he was, even back in 2021. The other downside with him is that there's a limited ceiling, and he will be incredibly touchdown-dependent. If he doesn't find the end zone, he'll struggle to score 10 points. More fantasy managers might flock to Dowdle for a piece of this offense, especially at depressed prices, and because he's not Elliott.

If there's a silver lining for Dowdle, it's his likely role as the primary pass-catcher. Last season, Prescott targeted the running backs 96 times. Among running backs with at least 20 targets last season, Dowdle finished 10th in yards after the catch per reception (9.5 yards), 11th in yards per route run (1.30), 12th in yards per target (6.5), and ninth in yards per reception (8.5). Dowdle only had 24 targets, so there is an element of a small sample size at play, but those are numbers to be optimistic. Deuce Vaughn could also play a pass-catching role.

Elliott was barely targeted in 2022 despite playing almost as many passing snaps as Pollard. He finished with just 23 targets, 17 receptions, and 92 yards. If we expect Elliott to handle nearly all the scoring opportunities and Dowdle to handle most of the targets out of the backfield, they'll both cap their potential upside. Elliott overcame this in 2022 because of how many touchdowns he scored; the same could occur this upcoming season. However, Dowdle's weekly and seasonal upside is minimal if Elliott monopolizes the touchdowns. Still, his 13th-round cost is so cheap it's hard to ignore.

Dallas will once again have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. Elliott will be 29 years old when the season starts, and he's been declining for a few years. If Elliott were to miss time, Dowdle would become a must-start running back. Given just how affordable these running backs are and how strong this offense is expected to be, being able to draft these two players in the 11th and 13th rounds can be considered a good value for anyone waiting on a running back or even looking for a bench piece.

Verdict: Buy Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: WR1, ADP 2
Brandin Cooks: WR59, ADP 136
Jalen Tolbert: WR86, ADP 213

We've already discussed how the Cowboys' offense changed following their Week 7 bye, and from that point on, Lamb was on a whole other level. From Weeks 7 through the Super Bowl, Lamb averaged 23.4 half-PPR PPG. The next closest receiver was Amon-Ra St. Brown, at 16.8. From Weeks 1 through the Super Bowl, Christian McCaffrey averaged 23.2 half-PPR PPG. In 2021, during Cooper Kupp's greatest fantasy season all-time for a receiver, he averaged 21.5 half-PPR PPG. Tyreek Hill hurt his ankle in Week 14 last year. From Weeks 1-13, he averaged 22.2 half-PPR PPG. Lamb should be the undisputed No. 1 receiver selected this year.

From Weeks 7 through the Super Bowl, Lamb averaged 12.9 targets, 9.2 receptions, 115.3 yards, and 0.92 touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, those per-game averages would equate to 219 targets, 156 receptions, 1,960 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Lamb could not be stopped, and the insane numbers and stats did not stop at the surface level. He was one of the most efficient receivers while handling incredible volume during this time. Below, you'll find some of his advanced metrics from this period. You'll see where these numbers ranked among receivers with at least 75 targets from Weeks 1-17 in parenthesis.

• 32.4% target share (first)
• 32% target rate (second)
• 37.4% team market yard share (third)
• 33.3% team market touchdown share (14th)
• 40.1% air yard share (eighth)
• 12.6 yards per reception
• 8.9 yards per target
• 71.0% catch rate (15th)
• 2.90 yards per route run (fifth)
• 5.05 yards after the catch per reception (19th)
• 0.15 missed tackles forced per reception (19th)
• 0.59 fantasy points per route run (second)
• 24.9 half-PPR expected PPG (first)

Looking at Lamb's situation, few receivers have the same opportunity as him. He has an excellent quarterback. He's in a very pass-heavy offense. There's very little, bordering on zero, target competition. He's in his prime age. Lamb is primed to go absolutely bonkers this year, and when it happens, we shouldn't be surprised. He had already shown us the upside in last year's second half. Lamb's ADP is high, but there's an argument that he might be closer to CMC than anyone else is to him.

This sounds weird but if we use the following criteria:

Talent
QB Quality
Target competition
Age

CeeDee Lamb belongs in a tier all by himself.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 3, 2024

This brings us to Brandin Cooks. In his first season with Dallas, he finished last season as the WR44 with an 8.9 half-PPR PPG average. Considering his current price of WR59, he looks like a pretty good bargain right off the bat. Like Lamb, Cooks was much better following the team's Week 7 bye. From Weeks 8-17, Cooks' half-PPR PPG average increased to 10.8. Calvin Ridley and Jordan Addison averaged 10.8 half-PPR PPG last year. That would've been good for WR28 on the season.

In Weeks 1-6, Cooks averaged 4.6 targets, 2.6 receptions, 21.8 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. These poor numbers could be explained by the low passing volume Dallas was utilizing and the fact that he was in his first games with a new team, new offense, new system, and new quarterback. For the remaining 12 games, Cooks averaged 5.5 targets, 3.9 receptions, 49.6 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns per game. Those per-game averages would have equated to 94 targets, 66 receptions, 843 yards, and 10 touchdowns. We may see an increase for Cooks in his second season with Dallas.

"The connection between Brandin Cooks and Dak Prescott stood out most. It was a solid rapport last year at this time, but it was obvious during OTAs and minicamp that the two now have a full year working together."

(Cooks ranked 14th among WRs in PPR points from Week 10 on last…

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 19, 2024

The touchdowns weren't much of a fluke, either, if that's what you think. For the 2023 season, Cooks finished 24th among receivers with 25 red zone targets and tied for fourth with 17 end zone targets. As you can see below, Cooks was a quality player for fantasy managers in the second half of the season. In 10 games (not counting Week 18), Cooks finished as a top 24 receiver five times and scored 12.0 or more half-PPR PPG in five contests. If the image below is the kind of production we can expect to receive from Cooks in 2024, his current price tag of WR59 is an absolute steal.

If there's an argument against Cooks, and thus, for Tolbert, it's that Cooks has gotten worse in most advanced stats across the board in the last three years. In 2023, Cooks had a 16.1% target rate, a 14.3% target share, and a 1.30-yard-per-route run average. Those averages were 23.5% (target rate), 21.0% (target share), and 1.77 (yard per route run) in 2022. In 2021, he had a 27.5% target rate, 26.9% target share, and a 2.15-yard-per-route run average. That doesn't look good, but context could explain some of that. Houston's quarterback in 2022 was Davis Mills, who performed as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Had it not been for Zach Wilson of the Jets, Mills would have been the worst quarterback in the league that year. This past year, Cooks, like most Cowboys' was negatively affected by the offensive play-calling the first six weeks of the season. On top of that, everything was brand new for Cooks (offense, system, team, quarterback).

If you're looking to buy Tolbert, the argument is that Cooks' continued decline will increase Tolbert's role. However, we still need to ask ourselves if Tolbert is good enough to take advantage of that opportunity if it even presents itself. The answer to that question is unknown. He played behind Lamb, Cooks, and Michael Gallup last season, playing over 50% of the snaps in just two games. Since Tolbert only requires a 17th-18th round pick, there's no reason to have a strong opinion on him one way or the other. Cooks is declining, and Ferguson has benefited from the Dallas ecosystem. That's not to say he's terrible, but his talent level is likely exaggerated by his box score judging. Due to this, there's no reason not to throw a few darts at Tolbert.

Verdict: Fair Price on CeeDee Lamb, Buy Brandin Cooks, and take a few dart throws on Jalen Tolbert

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: TE9, ADP 88

Ferguson finished last season as TE9 with an 8.3 half-PPR PPG average. However, based on his utilization, he had the potential for many more touchdowns. Banking on improvement in the touchdown department isn't always the best science, but there is reason to believe Ferguson could find the end zone more in 2024. Expecting some regression to the mean in a positive direction isn't outrageous thinking. Not to mention, touchdowns are a big part of the tight end position's scoring. Let's look at some of the statistics Ferguson put down last season.

• 102 targets (seventh among all tight ends)
• 16.9% target share (16th)
• 20.0% target rate (17th)
• 275 slot snaps (11th)
• 511 routes run (third)
• 83.2% route participation rate (11th)
• 71 receptions (ninth)
• 761 yards (eighth)
• 520 air yards (16th)
• 1.49 yards per route run (15th)
• 7.5 yards per target (15th)
• 10.7 yards per reception (13th)
• 1.24 yards per team pass attempt (13th)

As you can see, Ferguson isn't precisely blowing away the competition regarding his efficiency. He's a solid player; nothing more, nothing less. However, he has a desirable situation. He received 24 red-zone targets, the third most among tight ends, and the ninth-most end-zone targets, tied for second most. Despite having the seventh-most targets, third-most red-zone targets, and second-most end-zone targets, Ferguson tied for seventh with just five touchdowns. Based on his utilization, his expected touchdown total was seven.

Jake Ferguson also = very unlucky on TDs

He scored -3.8 TDs vs. expected per @HaydenWinks. No TE is due for more +TD regression

Saw that already in playoffs, where Ferg went:

10 rec (12 tgts), 93 yds, & 3 TDs for 37.3 PPR FPs!

Ferg = top bet to be elite TE w/o Top-50 cost pic.twitter.com/Rkb76yKThM

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) June 25, 2024

Ferguson was Dallas's second-leading target earner, besting Brandin Cooks by 21. He was second in receptions and yards, finishing with 17 more receptions and 104 more yards than Cooks. Cooks is another year older now and will turn 31 in September. He's coming off of back-to-back seasons with fewer than 700 yards. He averaged just 41.1 yards per game last season, well below his 62.7 career average. Last season, Cooks was having lunch here and there with Father Time, but for the 2024 season, Father Time has officially moved in. Dallas's No. 3 receiver is third-year player Jalen Tolbert. He had 268 yards in 2023. Ferguson is all but locked in to be Dak Prescott's No. 2 target-earner in a huge way this season.

Not only that, but we could see Dallas become even more pass-heavy this upcoming season. Last year, it finished with the eighth-most pass attempts, third-most yards, and the most passing touchdowns. It lost Tony Pollard in free agency this offseason and replaced him with Ezekiel Elliott. Rico Dowdle and Zeke will be the team's primary running backs this season. Over the past three seasons, these two players have combined for 2,905 yards on 748 carries, roughly a 3.9 yard-per-carry average. Granted, Zeke accounts for 95% of that, but Dowdle wasn't much better last year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. With a backfield deprived of talent in such a big way, the offense may be forced to lean on Prescott and the passing game even more heavily this year than they did last.

Verdict: Buy Jake Ferguson

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