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Daily Fantasy NASCAR: DraftKings DFS Picks & Analysis for the Ford Ecoboost 400

By Bo Nash (Flickr) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

We have made it to the final race of the NASCAR season and it is time to crown a champion. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Martin Truex Jr have all advanced into the Championship Round and will battle each other Sunday for a shot to be called a Sprint Cup Champion.

We have a little bit of everything when looking at the four drivers competing for the title. First we have the defending champion Kevin Harvick looking to go back to back and become only the 3rd driver(Jeff Gordon & Jimmie Johnson) to win back to back championship since Dale Earnhardt did it last in 1993/1994. He has been extremely consistent this year with three wins and 27 Top 10 finishes. Next we have the final race in four time Sprint Cup Champion, Jeff Gordon's career. He won the first race last round at Martinsville and will now compete for his 5th championship.

Kyle Busch will race for his first shot at a championship this week at Homestead after an amazing comeback in 2015 after a broken leg. He missed 11 races and when he returned he not only needed to finish the season with a win, but also had to be inside the Top 30 in points standings. He went on a run winning four of five races in the summer months and battled to get to this point. Finally, we have Martin Truex Jr. also racing for his first championship. The single car Furniture Row Racing team will be the underdog going in to Sunday, but don't count them out as Truex Jr. has raced himself into elite status in NASCAR this season.

The final race of the season, as always, will be at Homestead-Miami Speedway. It is a 1.5 Mile Oval Intermediate track with 18° - 20° banking in the corners. There are quite a few drivers who race well here so qualifying and practice will become very important in making our picks. It is a track where it is common for drivers starting outside the Top 10 and Top 20 to have solid finishes inside the Top 10. It will also be important to not only look at practice times but also the Consecutive 10 Lap Average Speeds, especially in Final Practice.

Below will be a breakdown of each of the final four drivers along with another strong pick to win and a value pick for this week season ending race.

 

Daily Fantasy NASCAR: DraftKings DFS  Lineup Picks

Kevin Harvick - $11,400  

A year after winning the championship, Harvick is back in the final four again after a three win season that also saw him pickup 27 Top 10 finishes. He was forced with a must win situation at Dover earlier in the Chase and came through with that clutch win to advance him and eventually end up at Homestead. In the last five races here at Homestead, Harvick has a win, two Top 5's, five Top 10's and a 6.0 average finish. He is by far the favorite on paper leading up to the race.

Kyle Busch - $10,600

It seems he has turned a corner in his career after a terrible crash back at Daytona in February. He ended up wit a broken leg which forced him out of the #18 car for the first 11 races. He returned to driving at Charlotte in May and finished 11th in his first race back. He then went on to finish 36th and 43rd in two of the next three races. It was the race at Infineon Raceway where everyone knew he was back with a vengeance. A very tough track that requires heavy breaking and clutching, yet Busch fought through the pain and won the race. After a 17th at Daytona the next week he went on to win three straight races at Kentucky, New Hampshire and Indianapolis. He finished the season with enough points to advance in the Chase is now in contention for a championship. He only has one Top 5, two Top 10's, and an average finish of 21 here at Homestead in the previous five years but he has never been racing for a championship before.

Jeff Gordon  - $9,700

What a great career it has been for Jeff Gordon. He started his first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta Motor Speedway back in 1992 and has gone on to make 796 starts leading up to this weekend with 93 career wins. He is a four time Sprint Cup Champion and leads the narrative talk this week by a mile. What an end to a Hall of Fame career it would be if he could win his 5th championship on the way out the door. The movie pretty much writes itself, right? In the previous five races here at Homestead he has a win, two Top 5's, three Top 10's with a 12.8 average finish.

Martin Truex Jr. - $9,600

He and the #78 Furniture Row Racing team had a very consistent season in 2015. He started the year out with Top 10 finishes in 13 of his first 14 races before finally picking up the win at Pocono that would lock him into the Chase. Going into the final race here at Homestead he has 22 Top 10's, eight Top 5 finishes on the season. In his previous five races at Homestead he has two Top 5's, three top 10's and a 8.2 average finish. He may be the underdog to the fans but you can bet the other three Chase drivers will be watching their rear views closely for the #78 on Sunday.

Carl Edwards  - $9,200

He is still clearly upset about the decision NASCAR made last week in calling the race due to rain. He never got a shot to race his way forward following a caution and instead was eliminated from the Chase. You can almost guarantee he will take his anger out on the track and will finish inside the Top 10 and most likely contend for the win with the Chase drivers. In his last five races here he has a win, two Top 5's and a 12.2 average finish.

Aric Almirola - $6,700

This pick will all depend on qualifying. If he qualifies outside the Top 15 he becomes a great value as he has a good track record here at Homestead. In his four races here he has one Top 5, two Top 10's and a 11.5 average finish. He is also coming into this final race of the season with four straight Top 20 finishes.

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10

  1. #11 Denny Hamlin
  2. #22 Joey Logano
  3. #18 Kyle Busch
  4. #31 Ryan Newman
  5. #24 Jeff Gordon
  6. #21 Ryan Blaney
  7. #19 Carl Edwards
  8. #2 Brad Keselowski
  9. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  10. #3 Austin Dillon

The four remaining Chase drivers will start 3rd(Kyle Busch), 5th(Jeff Gordon), 11th(Martin Truex Jr.), and 13th(Kevin Harvick). Harvick and Truex Jr. provide some nice place differential value as both should finish inside the Top 5 and contend for the win. Carl Edwards looks to have a strong car for the race on Sunday as he qualified 7th and was 3rd and 4th in the final two practices. Kasey Kahne makes a nice wild card GPP play starting 18th for the race. He was 10th and 2nd in the final two practices and had the 2nd best Consecutive 10 Lap Average in final practice. On the low end, David Ragan provides the biggest value this week as he qualified back in the 38th position. At his low salary of $6,300 he makes a great play in any format.

DFS & Fantasy NASCAR Chat Room

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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success

NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller!
Our DFS NASCAR Premium Package features several heavy hitters and proven winners.

Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! In 2022 DFS contests, Jordan had a +33.92% profit margin good for +$10,467.06 profit and qualified for the Fantasy Racing World Championship.

Four-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team.

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