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Welcome to the inaugural Daily Fantasy NASCAR picks article for RotoBaller. Three weeks ago Draftkings introduced NASCAR as their newest form of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). Going forward I will be writing an advice and picks article to be released on Wednesdays.
I will include an overview and any relevant news or information going into the race weekend. I will also include my initial picks based off of Track History, Recent Performances, and Loop Data. With practices and qualifying in NASCAR being very important to predicting race outcomes, I will provide an update to my article after qualifying and all practices are complete. I will also be releasing an article on Monday's to recap the race weekend and my picks.
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Daily Fantasy NASCAR & DraftKings Strategy
The points system that Draftkings has introduced can be viewed here. The biggest thing to point out to casual fantasy Nascar fans is that finishing position is not the only factor that should go in to your lineup building process. Each driver will receive points for finishing position but a multitude of bonus points are also awarded during the race. Drivers receive .25 points for a lap led, .50 points for a fastest lap, +/- 1 point for place differential and +/- .25 points for pass differential. Having these bonus points, which contribute heavily to a drivers final score, makes practice and qualifying very important to lineup building.
This week's race takes place at Michigan International Speedway. Michigan is a 2.0 Mile Superspeedway with 18 degree banking. It is the fastest track on the circuit and provides drivers with three, and sometimes four lines to ride to find speed. In last year's two races at Michigan, 65% of the drivers that started in the Top Ten finished there. It is a tough track to start from the back and work your way to the front. Due to the long laps run here, this race usually ends in a fuel mileage race which can really throw a wrench in fantasy lineups. With that being said here are my Fantasy NASCAR picks for DraftKings DFS for Quicken Loans 400.
Daily Fantasy NASCAR & DraftKings Picks
Kevin Harvick - $13,900 Qualified - 2nd Combined Practice Rank - 1st
Harvick comes into Michigan leading in points and has finished an amazing ten races first or second so far this year. He finished both races at Michigan runner up last season and has an average finish of 5.7 in his previous 6 races here.
Brad Keselowski - $11,300 Qualified - 3rd Combined Practice Rank - 13th
Keselowski comes into Michigan sitting 6th in the Sprint Cup Standings. He finished third and eight last year in the Michigan races and has an average finish of 8.3 over his last six races here. He was on a nice run of Top Tens early on in the season and I think he can get back to that form here this week.
Jeff Gordon - $11,100 Qualified - 6th Combined Practice Rank - 4th
Gordon came into this, his final season, with hopes of adding a few more wins to his storied career and possibly another run at a Championship. So far in 2015, things have not gone Gordon's way. He does have seven Top 10 finishes, but hasn't captured the win yet to lock himself in the Chase Playoffs. He won the fall race here last year from the pole and has an average finish of 16.2 over his last 6 races here.
Jamie McMurray - $9,900 Qualified - 25th Combined Practice Rank - 20th
A safe pick for cash games this week is the #1 car. He has finished 7th in each of the last two races and is averaging 11.0 finishing position over his previous five races. He doesn't have any Top 10 finishes at Michigan over the last six races but for his price, a Top 20 will be just fine.
Clint Bowyer - $8,700 Qualified - 32nd Combined Practice Rank - 25th
Another great play for your cash lineups this week. Bowyer has finished inside the Top 10 in each of his last six races here with a 7.0 average finish. He is also averaging a 20.4 finishing position over his last 5 races.
David Gilliland - $7,300 Qualified - 34th Combined Practice Rank - 34th
To fit Harvick into your lineups this week you will need a scrub or two to make it happen. This week Gilliland is the pick. He is right near the bottom in salary and has three finishes inside the Top 30 in his last five races. He is consistently scoring between twenty and thirty DraftKings points.
***Post Qualifying and Practice Update***
The biggest takeaway from practice and qualifying this week is that Kevin Harvick is still really fast. He should be a part of your core when building lineups.
If you are looking for some value be sure to roster Kurt Busch this week as he is starting in the 24th position but was 15th fastest when looking at combined practice averages. He should be able to pick up some pass differential and place differential points on top of his finishing position.
Denny Hamlin had some front right damage in the final practice but the team decided to repair the car rather than go to a backup car. This will keep Hamlin in his original starting instead of starting from the back of the field. Keep an eye on the #11 car going into lineup lock tomorrow. If he somehow starts from the rear he will become a great value as he will pick up a heavy dose of pass and place differential bonus points.
If you have any questions going into tomorrows race be sure to post below in the chat and I will answer all questions.
DFS & Fantasy NASCAR Chat Room
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