Daily Fantasy Golf FanDuel Picks (PGA DFS) - Arnold Palmer Invitational

Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel slate for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.

Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller!

In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options, as well as a couple of GPP Value Plays worth considering.

Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Arnold Palmer Invitational - PGA DFS Overview

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

7,454 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bermuda - Designer: Dick Wilson & Joe Lee with substantial renovations by Arnold Palmer

Arnold Palmer fell in love with this course over 50 years ago and it still holds up in the modern era. Like lots of courses we see during the Florida Swing, water and sand are prominent at Bay Hill. It's long at just over 7,400 yards, but players can't mindlessly bomb away, as some tee shots require lay-ups and a fairly penal rough guards the fairways.

This is a second-shot golf course and those approaches often require longer irons than we normally see on the PGA Tour schedule. One of the reasons Tiger Woods has dominated at Bay Hill throughout the years is his phenomenal iron game from 200-plus yards out. We usually see this tournament play as one of the 10-most difficult courses on the Tour schedule, but while it's hard, it is still possible for golfers to go low here.

For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: T2G
• Total Driving
• Strokes Gained: Par 5s
• Proximity: 200+ Yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.

High-Priced FanDuel DFS Players 

Rory McIlroy ($12,300)

We all seem to be waiting on something from Rory. It almost feels like maybe Rory is waiting on something from Rory. There has simply been no spark in his game since the COVID layoff. It's pretty easy to pile on McIlroy because we know just how extremely talented he is, which is what makes his lack of wins so frustrating. His results have been fine (a top-10 and two top-20s in four 2021 starts). His stats are fine (seventh in this week's API field in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds). However, we expect more than fine from Rory McIlroy. This week's API presents a tremendous breakout spot. Rory won at Bay Hill in 2018 and hasn't finished outside the top-six in this event since 2016.

Viktor Hovland ($11,900)

My man V-Hova! Another tournament and another great week for Hovland at the WGC-Workday Championship, as he logged his second runner-up finish in his last three starts at The Concession. He's been a statistical beast in 2021 and leads this week's API field in SG: T2G, OTT, & Approach since the Sentry ToC. However, the big difference for the Norwegian (who has always been an excellent ball striker) this year has been the putter. Hovland has gained strokes on the greens in each of his last three outings...a feat that he's only achieved one other time since turning professional. I don't want to rain on my guys parade, but it's fair to wonder if it is sustainable. Putting aside, Hovland certainly has the tee-to-green ability needed to handle this week's beastly Bay Hill layout, which definitely can't be said for every player in the field.

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,800)

I've been lukewarm on Bryson DeChambeau to this point in 2021, which has worked out, but I imagine that will change this week, as I'm interested in Bryson for the first time in a long time. DeChambeau appeared on the verge of "breaking golf" last year, though his dominant form showed major signs of issues in an ugly performance at the Masters. He hasn't really rediscovered the form that helped him to win twice in 2020, though a second-round 64 last week in the WGC-Workday is certainly noteworthy. That round, coupled with his pristine track record at Bay Hill (4th in 2020, 2nd in '18) has me willing to invest this week. We know that DeChambeau destroys Par-5s - a key component to success at Bay Hill - but he's also surprisingly-good in another facet that carries huge importance this week...Proximity from 200+ yards. Bryson stands first in the field in that category over the last 12 rounds. He doesn't feel as "safe" as a Rory McIlroy, but the "dominance factor" is tough to ignore in large-field GPP formats.

Patrick Reed ($11,600)

I was high on Reed's prospects last week and he played well, posting a rock-solid T9. My interest in Reed last week was tied directly to his otherworldly short game, but it was actually his iron play that propelled him at Concession. He gained an impressive 5.3 strokes on Approach last week, which was his best outing with the irons since the U.S. Open in September. Reed is always very tough to predict statistically, but he would be a very dangerous player this week if his irons continue to fire. He has a T7 and a T15 on his Bay Hill resume, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him in the mix this weekend.

Sungjae Im ($11,300)

Sungjae returned from a rare multiple-week break to post a T22 at Concession last week. If there was any rust, it should now be sufficiently knocked off as Im heads to a Bay Hill layout on which he's been a well-oiled machine in previous visits. He's went 3rd-T3 at the API over the last two years, proof that playing the Korean in Florida and on Bermuda greens is consistently profitable. Im hasn't been as stable from tee-to-green this year as I'd expected, but he's demonstrated the ability to thrive on this golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($11,100)

This high price tag causes a little bit of apprehension for me, as I'm not usually in love with the idea of paying a premium for Matthew Fitzpatrick. However, there's a lot to like about the Englishman this week as he heads to Bay Hill with both terrific recent form and a stout API track record. Fitz has made the cut in four of his last five trips to Bay Hill, with a T9 and a runner-up in the last two years. He's coming off a T11 last week at the WGC and a top-five finish at Riviera the week before. Always a dependable putter, Fitz is at his most dangerous when the irons are firing and he's gained strokes on Approach in both of his U.S. starts this year.

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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Paul Casey ($11,000)

Paul Casey is always a tough DFS play to figure out. If we're talking tee-to-green ability, he deserves to priced here at $11k. However, we know the putting can take huge dips on a moments notice, which leads to some results-based consistency issues. To borrow a basketball term, it all leads to the Englishman being something of a "tweener" when it comes to DFS pricing. All that said, his game is a great fit for Bay Hill on paper, though his API track record is mixed and he hasn't played this event since posting a T41 in 2017. He is playing fabulous golf at the moment and already has a win internationally this year, as well as a top-10 at the AmEx and a top-five at the AT&T Pebble Beach. I don't love what we're forced to pay, but he feels like a strong play in this spot.

Francesco Molinari ($10,300)

After basically putting his career on hold for the majority of 2020, Francesco Molinari has looked sharp to this point in 2021. The Italian has posted top-10 finishes in three of his four starts this year and brings that form to a Bay Hill layout on which he won in 2019 and has recorded three additional top-10s. His career seemed to be a cautionary tale, but Molinari is slowly finding the form that he had in 2018-19, form that led to a victory in both this event and the Open Championship.

Will Zalatoris ($10,000)

I keep waiting on "the letdown" to happen for Will Zalatoris, but outside of an underwhelming T55 at the AT&T, the kid just continues to answer the bell every week. Zalatoris has logged a top-10 and four top-25s over five 2021 starts. The most impressive thing about those results is that he's doing it on some of the toughest golf courses in the world - a T7 at Torrey Pines and a T15 at Riviera, not to mention a top-10 result at Winged Foot late last year - against elite fields. That all bodes well for this week, as the rookie will be forced to take on another difficult layout in Bay Hill. Over his last 24 rounds he grades out fifth in this week's field in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: T2G, and by all indications, should be able to handle the challenge that lies ahead.

Max Homa ($9,900)

With victories at Quail Hollow and Riviera on his resume, it's fair to say that Max Homa plays well on tough golf courses. He logged a top-25 in his API debut last year and heads to this year's edition in sharp form. Obviously we know about his huge win at the Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago, but Homa was playing under-the-radar great even before that big victory, posting top-25s at both the AmEx and the Farmers, as well as a T7 at Pebble Beach. We're always concerned about the "hangover effect" after wins, but he showed few ill effects last week at Concession, gaining four strokes T2G en route to a T22.

Sam Burns ($9,900)

I've felt that Sam Burns had superstar potential ever since he turned pro in the fall of 2017 after a stellar career at LSU. We've seen flashes from Burns, but not the sustained consistency that we'd hoped for. However, after posting two T7s during the Swing Season, he's been able to carry that momentum into the new year against stiffer competition. Burns logged his best career finish on the PGA Tour with a third-place result at the Genesis Invitational a couple of weeks ago and is now set to return to his beloved Bermuda greens at Bay Hill, a golf course where he's made the cut in all three of his previous API starts. There are still some consistency concerns, but there's tons of upside present here.

Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Cameron Tringale ($9,500)

I was "all in" on Cameron Tringale two weeks ago at the Genesis and he produced a useable T26 at Riviera. Despite moving from Cali to Florida, I see no real reason to hop off Tringale now. He hasn't been great at Bay Hill, but has made the cut in three of his four API starts with a pair of T27 results. He hasn't played this event since 2016, though you can make the argument he's currently playing the best golf of his career. Tringale has gained strokes on Approach in seven-consecutive tournaments dating back to last year and stands third in this elite field in SG: Total over the last 24 rounds.

Talor Gooch ($9,400)

It never seems to work out when I recommend Talor Gooch in this article, but here we are again, as Gooch heads to a course where he has a strong track record (T13 & T26 in two API starts) on the heels of a sharp performance in his previous tournament (T12 at Genesis). I've resigned myself to the fact that you simply cannot depend on Gooch, but he does have a penchant for repeatedly playing well in the same handful of events (this one, Genesis, Houston Open, AmEx, & Honda), so I'm willing to give him a look in GPPs.

Lanto Griffin ($9,300)

Lanto always seems to go overlooked, but there's something to be said for a solid player with a reasonable price tag (Great, now I feel a dad that's talking about buying a Honda Accord). Griffin posted a T36 in his API debut last year and has been steady in 2021, posting an impressive T7 at Torrey Pines with top-25s at the Sentry, Genesis (a T26, close enough), and last week at the WGC. He's never going to blow us away statistically, but he's long enough off the tee (12th in Driving Distance) to handle this golf course and is a consistent iron player (15th in SG: Approach).

GPP Value Options

Luke List ($9,000)

His inconsistency always lands him in the "GPP Only" bucket for me, but Luke List is certainly in tournament consideration this week. He's been an actual beast at Bay Hill, going T17-T7-T10 in three career API starts. List owns the fourth-best career scoring average in the field at 70.50. In addition to the impressive course history, he's also flashed some form this year, posting a top-10 at Farmers and a top-25 at the AmEx. List grades out 15th in the field in both SG: T2G & SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds.

Emiliano Grillo ($8,900)

Emiliano Grillo is cut from the same Luke List "elite ball striker that can't putt it into the ocean" cloth. Maybe it says something that both of these guys have played extremely well at Bay Hill? Grillo ranks third in career API scoring average at 70.38 and - outside of a DQ last year - has never finished worse than T26 in the API. He's coming off a T11 in Puerto Rico last week where he fired a blistering final-round 65.

Wyndham Clark ($8,900)

If you squint your eyes real hard, Wyndham Clark almost looks like a cheaper version of Sam Burns. Like Burns, Clark is super long off the tee (third in field Driving Distance) and an excellent putter. Unfortunately, he's also similar to Burns in that his irons are extremely inconsistent. This is a classic high-risk/high-reward GPP play.

Chris Kirk ($8,700)

Extremely surprised to find Chris Kirk at just $8.7k this week. He pulled off a minor miracle to finish runner-up at the Sony Open to keep his card earlier this year, but his subsequent results indicate that wasn't a fluke, as he's posted a pair of T16s over his three post-Sony starts. The former Georgia Bulldog also has some eye-catching course history at Bay Hill. Kirk has posted three finishes inside the top-16 over his last four starts at the API.

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