RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Bubba Watson smoked Kevin Kisner 7 and 6 to capture the World Golf Championship- Dell Match Play.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Houston Open. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Houston Open
With one week until The Masters, the PGA Tour heads to Humble, Texas for the Shell Houston Open. The par 72 course plays to at least 7,400 yards. There are four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. Three of the four par-5's range between 450-500 yards, the most of any range.
Players drive the ball two yards less than tour average, 282, but reach the fairway a higher clip 63%, than average, 60%. Even if you miss the fairway, the grass is short, which is similar to Augusta next week. The most common approach is 200-plus yards and players get on the the green in regulation 69% of the time (the tour average is 65%).
The greens are Bent and can be anywhere from soft, medium, to firm, but they are fast on the Stimpmeter. And don't forget those Texas winds that can come out of nowhere.
The last six years the cut line has been 2-under.
Past winners include Russell Henley, Jim Herman, J.B. Holmes, Matt Jones, D.A. Points, Hunter Mahan, Phil Mickelson, and Anthony Kim.
My custom stat model will be focusing on a five stats; Strokes Gained: putting (30%), SG: approach (30%), proximity 200+ (20%), and par-4 450-500 yards (20%).
Russell Henley has the most total strokes gained at this event the past five years, 51.67 followed by Phil Mickelson, 28.67, Rickie Fowler, Daniel Berger, and Cameron Tringale.
My custom stat model will focus on the last 24 rounds played with an emphasis on windy conditions, Bent grass greens, and courses that are more than 7,400 yards.
With the results, I keyed on the following
*I will not be including stats from last's weeks match play*
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Rickie Fowler ($11,500), Justin Rose ($11,400), Jordan Spieth ($11,100), Henrik Stenson ($10,500) and Phil Mickelson ($10,200).
Fowler has finished in the top-10 three of the last five years. He was T-37 and T-14 at his past two outings. This price is too steep though
Rose is off back-to-back top-5's at the Valspar and Arnold Palmer. His two outings in Houston were in 2015 and last year where he placed T-37 and T-15. He's ranked 59th on my rankings which is way too low for this price.
Spieth is number one in my rankings. I keep waiting for him to have everything click in one tournament, and I think it's this week. This is his home state, and although he was cut last year, he has had a runner-up and top-15 finish the two years prior.
Stenson should have won the Arnold Palmer two weeks ago after leading for three rounds, but ended up finishing fourth. He was cut last year, but was runner-up in 2016 and 2013. I'm basing my lineups around Spieth.
Mickelson loves loves loves playing this tournament to warm up for The Masters. He's been incredible at his past four events; T-5, T-2, T-6, win. From 2013-16 Lefty finished in the top-20 and last year was T-55. Obviously Mickelson wants to win this tournament, but it's far more important for him to test out some new shots for and fix anything in his game before the Masters next week. He'll be in the top-20, but don't expect a top-5 finish.
Middle-Priced Players
Luke List ($9,600) - He's had a great string of tournaments the past month finishing runner-up, T-16, and T-7. He was T-3 in Houston last year and is number five in SG:P.
Russell Henley ($9,200) - He has by far the most strokes gained at this event. He's had four consecutive top-10's at this event and is the defending champion. His salary is a fair price considering he's had a T-15, T-24, and T-58 the past three tourneys.
Matt Kuchar ($9,100) - He has been unable to continue the remarkable golf he played last year, but he has not missed a cut all year.
Keegan Bradley ($8,600) - The St. John's product has made four of his past five cuts at this event, including a T-15, T-10, and T-5. He's missed one cut all year.
Emilliano Grillo ($8,500) - The Argentine will be competing in Houston for the first time ever. He's had a steady consistent year and should continue that this week.
Jhonnatan Vegas ($7,300) - The long distance of this course should be no problem for a masher like him. He has not played since the WGC - Mexico where he finished T-20. He's improved his standing at this event each of the past years from a T-72, to a T-55, to a T-19, and to a T-15 last year.
Michael Kim ($7,100) - He had a T-27 two years ago and last year was T-12. He's been having a bleh year, but at this price, all you want is for your player to make the cut, and make some birdies and he fits that bill.
Retief Goosen ($7,000) - The two-time major winner finally had a good showing last week in Punta Cana finishing T-35. He was T-7 here in 2014.
Low-Priced Players
Ernie Els ($6,800) - The South African is second in my rankings. He missed three cuts in a row, but bounced back at the past two making the cut. He's mad three of the past four cuts in Houston.
Robert Garrigus ($6,600) - His stats are great for this even despite being cut last week in Punta Cana. He was T-20 last year.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
