Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): PGA Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Byron Nelson. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - PGA Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Kiawah Island

7,876 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Paspalum

Major championship week is back upon us, and we have an exciting tournament on tap for the second grand slam event of the year. One hundred and fifty-six players are slotted to tie it up at Kiawah Island, with 20 of those spots reserved for club professionals that are PGA of America members. History would suggest that most of the teaching pros aren't a legitimate threat to make the weekend, but even if a few can defy the odds, this tournament does carry better made cut potential for the household names because of the overall lack of depth near the bottom of the slate.

At first glance, the jarring total is the 7,876-yard distance that Kiawah Island possesses, giving us an increase of nearly 204 yards from the last time this course hosted the PGA Championship in 2012. For official bookkeeping purposes, that is the longest total in major championship history, and it might become even more challenging for golfers if coastal winds affect a layout that already deprives length with its "sticky" paspalum grass.

When trying to handicap a particular skillset for what is needed to find success, I would say a complete game will go a long way, although some variables feel more critical than others. Par-five scoring will be a must if the field wants to get an upper hand on the brutal test, and the ability to play in windy conditions, hit long irons, ball strike and avoid three-putting are just a few of those narratives I am trying to pinpoint in South Carolina. For a more in-depth course breakdown, please check out my podcast I do with StixPicks on our show "The Bettor Golf Podcast."

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by the trio of Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm at 14/1, Justin Thomas at 15/1 and Dustin Johnson at 18/1.

Key Stats 

• Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
• GIR 15%
• Total Driving 15%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
• OTT+APP 15%
• Three-Putt Avoidance 12.5%
• SG: Total In Hard Conditions/High Winds 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Justin Thomas ($11,300) - Winner of the 2017 PGA Championship, Justin Thomas comes into the week a little under the radar - despite his victory nearly two months ago at the PGA Championship. Thomas' recent run of zero top-10 finishes over his last four tournaments might be viewed as concerning by some that are looking to pick holes into his resume, but the 6.8 shots he has gained per trackable event over his last four tournaments with his irons is anything but unsteady.
• Most Upside: Jon Rahm($10,500) - Jon Rahm essentially broke my DFS model this week. The Spaniard graded out inside the top-19 in every metric I used as a quantifiable indicator for success, and he placed inside the top-two when it came to GIR percentage, total driving, par-five average and strokes gained in hard conditions. The shaky recent form bumped him down to eighth overall for me when taking into account past results, but make no mistake about it, Rahm's A-game would win him this tournament.
• Favorite GPP Play: Justin Thomas ($11,300)
• Fade: Dustin Johnson ($10,900) - There are three major red flags for me on Dustin Johnson. None of this is to say that he can't win the tournament if he transforms back into his old self, but the current form he possesses mixed with his par-five scoring and three-putt avoidance totals are troubling, to say the least.
• Most Likely Winner: Justin Thomas ($11,300)

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Collin Morikawa ($9,800) - I don't love what comes with trying to defend a major title, but Collin Morikawa's iron prowess will give us some level of built-in safety, even if the extra media obligations partially derails his schedule and mindset.
• Most Upside: Viktor Hovland - ($9,300) - Can Viktor Hovland give us back-to-back first-time major champions at the PGA Championship? If the mental mistakes around the green can be subdued, I do believe there is a chance.
• Favorite GPP Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,600)
• Fade: Patrick Reed ($9,100) - Brooks Koepka is the easy player to target in this range, but let's get slightly more creative with it. Patrick Reed ranks just 46th in my model in strokes gained off the tee/approach and comes in a paltry 98th in ball-striking. I think there is a chance that putting gets neutralized at Kiawah Island, which would only hurt Reed's chances.
• Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($9,600)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Daniel Berger ($8,700) - Many forget that Daniel Berger entered the weekend last year at the PGA Championship as the favorite at some books. A disappointing Saturday eventually was his undoing in his attempt to capture his first major, but the American is as steady as anyone in this field if we are looking for an overall skillset
• Most Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000) - Tyrrell Hatton ranks first in my model in proximity over 175 yards and three-putt avoidance and also comes in ranked fifth in my aggregate ranking that measures both off the tee and approach play.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000)
• Fade: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,200) - It is a fade in the sense that I don't believe Tommy Fleetwood will pay off his 22nd place price tag on DraftKings. He might not miss it by as much as my model projects, but I can't run my numbers in a way where he shows up as a value.
• Most Likely Winner: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Abraham Ancer ($7,900) - I always question Abraham Ancer's win equity, but there is nothing wrong with sliding him into a cash-game lineup at $7,900. Ancer has posted eight consecutive top-26 finishes.
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,800) - It hasn't been a great PGA Championship run early in his career with two missed cuts and a sloppy 71st in 2018, but it is hard to count too many of the past transgressions against the 22-year-old. Niemann has the upside and ball-striking to explode onto the scene in South Carolina.
• Favorite GPP Play: Jason Kokrak ($7,100) - Insane pricing for Jason Kokrak, who has posted two top-23 finishes in his last three PGA Championship appearances. Kokrak ranks sixth in this field in total driving and is 16th over his last 50 rounds on difficult courses/windy venues.
• Fade: Si Woo Kim ($7,200) - I got burned when I tried to fade the Pete Dye narrative for Si Woo Kim at the American Express, but the amount of public discussion the South Korean gets for being a Dye wizard will do nothing but overly inflate his ownership again. I don't believe Kiawah is quite like most other Dye tracks, but I guess it is something we will have to see at the end of Sunday.
• Most Likely Winner: Paul Casey ($7,700)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Stewart Cink ($6,900)
• Most Upside: Ryan Palmer ($6,900)
• Favorite GPP Play: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900)
• Fade: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,800)

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