We had our first taste of playoff football last weekend, with quite spicy results. Every road team came in and won, with three out of the four games hitting the under. The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is here now, and even with an eight team slate you better believe we've got DFS games to play.
Let's peek at the Vegas lines for these four games. The highest projected point total is the 50-burger for the Green Bay-Arizona matchup. After that it is Seattle at Carolina with a 44, Kansas City at New England at 43, and as of now Pittsburgh-Denver is hovering around 40. I'd wager this weekend sees more points scored than last weekend, and that means more fantasy goodness to go around.
Rest assured there is still plenty of potential far down on the player lists in DraftKings player pool. The risk is inherent, but if you're trying to make a bunch of a stud plays work, you're going to need to roll some serious dice on a few slots. Let's try to make those dice a little loaded.
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Cheap Wild Card DraftKings Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning (QB, DEN): $6,000 - vs. PIT
AJ McCarron didn't do well against the Steelers, but there is little doubt that the way you beat Pittsburgh is through the air. They insist on letting the burnable Antwon Blake play more snaps over Ross Cockrell despite the latter outplaying the former. The Steelers are really doing that whole "bend but don't break" thing, giving up the yards but going for the turnovers and making it work. A savvy vet like Peyton could take advantage of them and pick Pittsburgh apart when they come in with blitzes and roll their coverage. Honestly, this pick is mostly contingent on gameflow and how much Peyton truly ends up needing to do, because if a beat up Ben Roethlisberger can't generate much offense then Denver won't need to air it out that often. All the same, the chance is here for a vintage Peyton line.
Alex Smith (QB, KC): $5,400 - @NE
Smith had the lead before he even took the field, and the Chiefs never looked back against a Houston team that honestly just looked deflated and scattered the whole way through. J.J. Watt being hurt, missing Jadeveon Clowney, and having Brian Hoyer throw four picks might just do that. Anyway, Smith may have lost Jeremy Maclin in that one but he remembered that he has an incredible tight end to throw to in Travis Kelce, and even some serviceable complementary pieces in Albert Wilson and Chris Conley at receiver. The Chiefs love using their running backs and defense to win games, but one has to imagine the chances of that being enough against Belichick and the Patriots on the road are slim. Look for Smith to have to make some plays in this one, with a healthy chance at touching 50 yards rushing to boot.
Cheap Wild Card DraftKings Running Backs
Christine Michael (RB, SEA): $4,600 - @CAR
Don't look now, but Carolina's last five games have seen them give up 10 points or more to Mark Ingram, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, and Charles Sims. Obviously if Marshawn Lynch ends up playing then you won't want to play Michael, but Lynch may very well not be able to be effective again and ride the pine again. Michael hasn't gotten the chance to light the world on fire, and perhaps that is by design so that Seattle can lean on Russell Wilson as opposed to an unproven Michael. All the same, Michael just needs to get some decent yardage and a punch in TD to make great value here. Consider him.
Fitzgerald Toussaint (RB, PIT): $4,200 - @CIN
Mike Tomlin was talking about how well Toussaint has stepped up for Pittsburgh before, and he came through with a good performance against Cincinnati last Saturday. Rushing 17 times for 58 yards and most notably catching four of eight targets for 60 yards, Toussaint did well enough to still stand out despite Jordan Todman's own good showing. Toussaint played on 49 snaps to Todman's 14, and this should carry forward. I like Toussaint the most for being the favorite for the heavy work and goal line package opportunities. I'd want Toussaint above the others and hope he gets a cheap plunge or two like DeAngelo Williams did in Week 16 off of the two pass interference calls, or sees around six targets in the passing game (especially if Antonio Brown cannot go).
C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN): $3,700 - vs. PIT
This isn't all that advisable, but this is the cheapest guy I'd feel comfortable throwing a tournament slot at. As we said in the Peyton blurb, the Broncos may look to control this game with their defense and running game. This means heavy doses of Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. While Pittsburgh has defended the run well all year (which continued against Cincinnati last week), the Broncos might be in a position to just stubbornly abuse the rushing attack and look for Anderson to be that gamebreaker on the edge. He's made quite a few splashy plays on halfback tosses once defenses start committing to getting upfield or crunching into the A and B gaps.
Cheap Wild Card DraftKings Wide Receivers
Markus Wheaton (WR, PIT): $4,300 - @DEN
If Antonio Brown can't go, Wheaton is just that much more likely to be involved. Wheaton has seen additional action lately, even though he didn't really get much of anything going against Cincinnati last week, but he had a good game against Denver the last time out and overall has seen a real increase in targets from Roethlisberger, as well as the running game taking a serious ding with DeAngelo Williams' injury, and things look pretty good for Wheaton to pan out for owners. We saw how crazy Pittsburgh went in rolling out the aerial assault on Denver the last time they played in that second half, and if they are to win this game it should require a good portion (if not more) of that magic. You'd be hard pressed to envision a scenario where Wheaton isn't a part of that.
Chris Conley (WR, KC): $3,000 - @NE
Jeremy Maclin didn't leave the game until the third quarter, and Chris Conley still managed to play on 44 of 63 snaps. He had only one catch but made it count, catching a nine yard touchdown. Albert Wilson is more of a gadget type receiver, think Tavon Austin, who can run the jet sweeps and agile routes, but Chris Conley is the best all around wide receiver that Kansas City has sans Jeremy Maclin. Travis Kelce has a bad matchup against a good Patriots linebacking corps, while Conley gets to operate against a secondary that gives up big chunks of yards. If he sees Malcolm Butler that isn't ideal, but the odds are that the only shadow coverage that Kansas City will be affected by is bracketed coverage on Kelce.
Jared Abbrederis (WR, GB): $3,000 - @ARI
Nothing too special here, but assuming Davante Adams cannot go, Abbrederis is poised to be the next man up to step in (with a sprinkling in of Jeff Janis). James Jones and Richard Rodgers probably stand to gain the most from Adams' absence if we assume that Patrick Peterson will shadow Randall Cobb again, but don't forget about Abbrederis if you need a minimum play and don't like Chris Conley's chances. If this game resembles their matchup from a few weeks ago, this is not a game where Green Bay will be able to take their foot off of the gas pedal at all. The odds are very strong that Aaron Rodgers will need to be throwing often, and three wide sets should give Green Bay a better chance at exposing a Mathieu-less Cardinals secondary that has to lean on Jerraud Powers and Justin Bethel (who, spoiler alert, have not done that well lately).
Cheap Wild Card DraftKings Tight Ends
Richard Rodgers (TE, GB): $4,000 - @ARI
The Cardinals defend everything well, but if Davante Adams cannot go (which is seems like he shouldn't) then that's just a few extra targets that could go Richard Rodgers' way. In Week 12 Vance McDonald put up a 6-71-1 line on Arizona, in Week 14 Kyle Rudolph had a 6-67 game, Week 15 saw Zach Ertz go 8-78-1, the point here is that it can be done. Without Tyrian Mathieu scoping out the middle of the field anymore, this could be Rodgers' place to attack.
Heath Miller (TE, PIT): $3,200 - @DEN
As we've said, the Steelers are banged up. The passing game is dinged on top of the rushing attack now, and if Brown isn't cleared then Miller really becomes the most reliable receiver out there for Pittsburgh. Bryant and Wheaton will deal with Denver's corners on top of them just not having that veteran presence out there. Don't even try to sell me on Darrius Heyward-Bey filling that. Heath is the guy. The Steelers defense isn't anything special, and Pittsburgh may very well need to rely on a voluminous passing attack in lieu of a true RB1 to carry the load against a good Denver front, and Miller should be heavily involved. Miller didn't hit against Cincinnati, so his price remains low. This is a very good shot to take if you want to save some coin.
Owen Daniels (TE, DEN): $2,500 - vs. PIT
On the flipside, Peyton Manning comes back under center and may very well try to hit up his old boy Owen Daniels quite a bit. Obviously Denver's wide outs have great matchups, and the Broncos may try to win this with the running game/defense combo without taxing Peyton too much, but should those third downs come or sneaky play action roll outs, and you've got spots for Daniels to land some decent value. Pittsburgh has fared well against tight ends all year, but with Daniels so far down on the list of priorities to attend to, he might just get a gamebreaker.
Cheap Wild Card DraftKings Defense
Every team falls inside the $4,200 - $3,400 range, with each team checking in at every $100 interval in between. Honestly, that's pretty impressive. There's no sub $3,000 team to be tempted by this weekend.
New England Patriots, D/ST: $3,500 vs. KC
The Patriots are the cheapest team that is playing at home, and they have a maestro at head coach who rarely gets outmatched. The Patriots also match up very well with the Chiefs, especially if Jeremy Maclin cannot go. Even if Maclin does play, you can't think he'll be 100% effective out there with a bum ankle. We saw Travis Kelce go off against the Texans, but the Patriots come into this game having only given up one big game to a tight end (Delanie Walker in Week 15). It's the playoffs, so there really isn't going to be a clear team to "beat up on", but this is a good option for those of you who want to squeeze the most out of your dollar for offensive players.
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