D/ST Matchups to Target in Week 16 - San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens

We're back with another set of D/ST picks for Daily Fantasy Sports. In this piece, we'll do a deep dive into the situations for defenses and the offenses they'll face in Week 16 and why that makes them good pickups in DFS.

They may not be the highest-scoring defenses, but they're who we think will be the best values. They also might not be the best values, because it's impossible to predict everything accurately. But at least we think they'll have a chance of doing very well in their matchups.

We'll provide as much evidence as we can that we believe will help them return great value relative to how much you had to spend on them to get them into your lineups.

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San Francisco 49ers D/ST

$2.8k on DraftKings, $4.6k on FanDuel; @ Miami Dolphins

This is a much better value on DraftKings than it is in FanDuel, so keep that in mind before making your picks. But the San Francisco 49ers defense will likely have both defensive end Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles, knee), who both played last week. Their statuses are somewhat up in the air, though.

Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw are questionable against Miami.

Full @DignityHealth injury report 👇

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 20, 2024

If neither of them plays, obviously this isn't as tantalizing of a pick. But, significantly, the Miami Dolphins have been trying to play around a bad offensive line all year, and they may be without starting offensive tackles Terron Armstead (knee) and Kendall Lamm (back).

Final Dolphins-49ers injury report with Tyreek Hill questionable.

Like Mike McDaniel said, wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Dee Eskridge doubtful, tackles Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm questionable, as are Bradley Chubb and Cameron Goode in hopes of PUP activation. https://t.co/OsuP745sFX pic.twitter.com/TXv3sHnY2R

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) December 20, 2024

Lamm logged a full practice, but both of them would be playing through injury in the game, and that would be a big weakness for them. Miami is now second-to-last in team yards per rush attempt on the season. Their three top running backs average between 1.8 and 2.2 yards before contact per rush, which is not good.

And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (hip) who will play through a hip injury in the game, has been forced to let the ball go quickly this season. His time to throw is much lower than it was last year, as is his average depth of target. You can see that his yards per attempt declined markedly from last season.

Jesus, look at this rep yesterday from Miami #Dolphins RT Jackson Carman, who filled in for Kendall Lamm: pic.twitter.com/t1uaimBK5X

— Brandon Liguori (@BrandonRLiguori) December 16, 2024

Miami has very little depth on the OL behind their starters. That's bad news against pass-rushers like Bosa. And wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (knee) is dealing with a knee injury he picked up last week. He's listed as "Doubtful" on the Dolphins' injury report, and he's extremely unlikely to play.

We like SF's talented defense against a seriously banged-up MIA offense on DraftKings, where they're pretty cheap.

Tennessee Titans D/ST

$2.6k on DraftKings, $3.9k on FanDuel; @ Indianapolis Colts

The Tennessee Titans will take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16, and they're another D/ST that fits into the category of absolutely dirt-cheap. They forced three turnovers against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15, one week after holding the Jacksonville Jaguars to just 10 points.

Titans Arden Key winning with violent hands to get past two Bengals pretty quickly. Gets a hit on Joe Burrow and rushes him into throwing an interception. pic.twitter.com/sG3BtkFHv4

— NFL Shock (@NFLShock) December 18, 2024

The Titans have been excellent at holding opposing offenses to low yardage totals this season, but not as great in the scoring department. They'll face quarterback Anthony Richardson, though, who has been inaccurate this season.

Highest catchable throw rates when targeting a receiver who has at least one step of separation:

1) Jalen Hurts - 93%
2) Joe Burrow - 93%
3) Tua Tagovailoa - 92%
4, Jared Goff - 91%
5) Sam Darnold - 91%

The lowest are almost exactly who you'd expect: pic.twitter.com/oqPSu7bWWb

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 20, 2024

Richardson is the worst QB in the league at getting the ball to his open receivers by a significant margin. His accuracy issues have been a consistent problem, and he's a big reason why his team is bottom-10 in scoring this year. And the Titans' defense may not be as bad as it seems scoring-wise.

They've had to face the Washington Commanders, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers this season. That's a verifiable gauntlet of good to elite offense spread out over the year, so it's no wonder they've allowed 27.1 points per game.

But Indy is far from a tough matchup. TEN is also not quite as well off as they could be, since they have plenty of key defenders on injured reserve. Still, they present a very good value this week, especially on DraftKings, where they're a lower rank in price compared to FanDuel.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST (Saturday)

$3.3k on DraftKings, $4.8k on FanDuel; vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week, we recommended you snag the Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, as they were facing the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were without wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring), who was dealing with a hamstring issue. Well, he's not healthy yet, and he was once again ruled out, meaning he won't play in Week 16 either.

#Steelers final injury report:

- George Pickens & Justin Fields are OUT

- DeShon Elliott listed as doubtful.

- Donte Jackson & Larry Ogunjobi are questionable, but Ogunjobi expects to play.

- No injury designation for TJ Watt. He’s good to go. pic.twitter.com/Bxm5u4JNHO

— Jason Shetler (@Jason_Shetler) December 19, 2024

Also, quarterback Justin Fields (abdominal) won't play due to an abdominal issue. While that's not incredibly impactful, Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator likes to use run packages with Fields, and they've been very effective this season, allowing the team to pick up some key first downs. They won't have that option now.

Pittsburgh mustered just 163 total offensive yards last week. While they're not typically a turnover-prone team, Wilson had an awful day against the Ravens earlier in the season, throwing for 205 yards, no TDs, and one interception. And that was with Pickens healthy and playing the full game.

Russell Wilson PICKED OFF IN THE END ZONE 😱

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/RUZqKDnZUR

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 17, 2024

Baltimore has the best run defense in the league, and it isn't close. Without Pickens there to stress the defense vertically, it's likely that the Ravens will be able to focus even more on the run. And that's not ideal for their rivals, who love to run the ball heavily. It could ugly very quickly for Pittsburgh.

For those reasons, we like the Ravens, but only on FanDuel, as they're priced much lower (13th-lowest) relative to the other D/STs there than they are on DraftKings (seventh-highest for some reason).

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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