X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Conspiracy Theories and the "D" in R.O.I.D.S.

Josh Leonard teaches us about fantasy baseball magic with dark horse picks of outfielder Avisail Garcia and first baseman Steve Pearce.

 

Conspire With ROIDS

As we begin cycling off our first official ROIDS program, I want to direct your attention away from fantasy baseball for a moment. A popular Katy Perry song goes: “So you wanna play with magic? Boy, you should know what you’re falling for. Baby, do you dare to do this? 'Cause I’m coming at you like a dark horse.”

The pop goddess has conspiracy theorists convinced she wrote this song as a tribute to Satan and the Illuminati. Crazy, right? My theory actually takes it another step. Perhaps, the Illuminati play fantasy baseball? In typical Illuminati fashion, they use pop culture to spread their message-- in this case, fantasy baseball sleeper advice.

Why else would KP have embedded so much secret elite draft advice into her hit song? The good news is, you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to understand what it all means. So in honor of Katy and her devotion to the Illuminati’s interest in fantasy baseball, I have named the D in ROIDS, after her hit song, Dark Horse.
 

“So you wanna play with magic?”

Well yes Katy, I do. But first you have to know how to find draft magic. Draft magic comes from the eye test. It comes from clues hidden in the comment sections in local sports news. It also comes from advanced statistical analysis. It’s most importantly the magic you feel deep in your plumbs, like a gut feeling. It’s the only reason I was able to predict Michael Brantley’s outbreak in 2014 (I have no proof of this).

At the start of the 2014 season Razzball projected Brantley, then 26, to hit 13 HR and 73 RBI with an OPS of .768. He ultimately nearly doubled his home run projection, had 97 RBI and a .890 OPS.  My point is, projections aren't guarantees.

So who knew about Brantley?

Besides me? The small amount of people in Cleveland that religiously watch the Indians play. You find them in the comment sections of local sports stories. Whenever Brantley was under-ranked or underestimated,  Indians loyalists would come out of the woodwork. They all knew he was legit and weren't wondering if he would break out, but when. I tend to pay attention to stuff like that.
 

Magic in Action

So, who has the Katy Perry Dark Horse Magic in 2015? Look no further than Avisail Garcia, outfielder for the Chicago White Sox. Ever watch him play? He passes the eye test. Ask anyone in the South Side of Chicago, and they know what I mean.

His potential 20/20 bat, plus Steamer’s enticing prediction of .282/.336/.479 and 17 HR, 67 RBI is eerily similar to Brantley in 2014. Garcia is currently ranked around the 48th-best outfielder in standard drafts. At only 23 years old, he hasn’t reached his potential.

Garcia’s weaknesses are evident. He has a high swing rate and a tendency to flail at the plate. He’s posted minimal walk rates at every level of play. If he doesn’t improve at the plate, he is B.J. Upton. If he learns discipline, his speed and plus power makes him Shin-Soo Choo.

“Boy you should know what you're falling for. Baby do you dare to do this?” Katy Perry must have been looking into a crystal ball when she wrote those lyrics, because she's serenading me about drafting Baltimore’s Steve Pearce.

Over the 2014 season, Pearce managed a .263 ISO in 363 at-bats. That would would rank him seventh, just ahead of David Ortiz. His 17.5% HR/FB puts him in front of Todd Frazier and not far behind MVP Mike Trout. Additionally, in 383 at bats, Pearce’s 161 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created plus) would have ranked him 16th in MLB.

Steamer predicts very little regression in 2015, with 23 HR, 73 RBI and .270/.349/.467. He reminds me of a 2010 Jose Bautista, when Bautista was the dark horse. I’m not suggesting that you draft Pearce with the expectations of a Jose Bautista, that's crazy. But I think there is substantial draft value where he currently sits.

What I like best about the Joey Bats and Pearce comparison is that each swings a bat like an axe murderer. That's exactly what I want to do to my speakers when the Katy Perry song is playing.

Tune in next week to get your final butt injection of ROIDS, and as a bonus, my Dad will be making a special appearance. If you have any ideas, physical challenges or questions for him, please post them in the comment section.

Missed a letter? Find previous editions of ROIDS here: R O I.

 

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Nola

Pitches Seven Strong Innings
Tylor Megill

Strikes Out Nine In No-Decision
Hunter Brown

Strikes Out Nine In Win
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice
Andy Pages

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Ketel Marte

Expected To Return Next Weekend
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Noelvi Marte

Has Big Game On Sunday
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh

Removed Early During Rehab Game
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Looks Sharp In Rehab Start
Josh Jung

Makes Early Exit On Sunday
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Jarren Duran

Collects Four Hits On Sunday
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Clayton Kershaw

To Make Two Rehab Starts This Week
Jackson Merrill

Takes Batting Practice On Sunday
Sean Murphy

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Will Smith

Resting On Sunday
Max Brosmer

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Tyler Fitzgerald

To Miss Second Straight Game
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

No Longer Facing One-Game Suspension

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Cam Ward

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Quinn Ewers

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday
Will Howard

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Kyle McCord

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Ollie Gordon II

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Oronde Gadsden II

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
DJ Giddens

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Jaydon Blue

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round
Jordan Watkins

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Shedeur Sanders

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings
Elic Ayomanor

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Royals

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Jaylin Lane

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room
Dylan Sampson

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Gunnar Helm

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF