RADIO
Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 8 of the season.
A handful of high-profile inactives opened the door for some bench stashes and waiver adds to find their way into starting fantasy lineups in Week 7. In the Week 8 edition of the Cut List, we'll spend some time breaking down which of those fill-ins are worth keeping around after seeing what they did or didn't do with the increase in opportunity. As usual, we'll also discuss players from around the league who are rostered in more leagues than they probably should be, as well as which ones deserve at least one more week of patience.
For a new element to this column going forward, I'm will incorporate a look back on the advice I provided in the previous week regarding players I suggested dropping or keeping. I'm doing this in the interest of transparency. The way I felt about a given player last week may not be the way I feel about him today. I want RotoBaller readers, specifically those who read my work, to be able to trust me. At the end of the day, I'm using the same information everyone else has to make the best calls I can. Sometimes those calls are going to be wrong. The very foundation of providing fantasy advice is adapting to new information and acknowledging where you may have swung and missed.
And with that, let's get to The Cut List for Week 8. All roster percentages are reflective of ESPN.com leagues.
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Droppable Players
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
17% rostered
A.J. Dillon was one of two Packers running backs you could've slotted into your lineup as a flex with Aaron Jones out, but it was the other--Jamaal Williams--who rewarded you with production. Per Pro Football Reference, Dillon played just 23% of Green Bay's offensive snaps, recorded just five carries for a meager 11 yards, and saw zero targets in the passing game. None of Dillon's five carries came anywhere near the goal-line, and he only touched the ball once in the second half.
The Packers held a commanding lead over the Houston Texans for most of the game, which presumably would've allowed them the chance to give their rookie running back some... run. Instead, he was a virtually nonexistent part of their game plan. If Jones couldn't garner at least a modest snap split without the team's workhorse active in a great fantasy matchup, it's difficult to envision him carving out a prominent role unless both of Jones and Williams miss time.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
67.5% rostered
Michael Gallup might have been a huge part of the reason you won your fantasy matchup in Week 3 when he went off for 138 yards and a touchdown on six catches. If you started him in any of the Cowboys' other six games, he's probably one of the reasons you lost. He turned in his most devastating dud of the year when he failed to record a catch against Washington in Week 7. Hopefully his lack of involvement in weeks prior dissuaded you from allowing that to take place in your starting lineup.
Naturally, this downward trend is a byproduct of losing Dak Prescott for the season. With Prescott at the helm, the Cowboys offense would've likely been able to sustain three fantasy-relevant WRs in most matchups. Now Dallas is in danger of not even having its second-string QB for the near future with Andy Dalton suffering a concussion against Washington on Sunday, and it appears Gallup has become the odd man out in the Cowboys' talented trio of receivers. Here are the stat lines for Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper from Weeks 4-7 (which still includes 1.5 games with Prescott at QB):
- CeeDee Lamb - 20 REC, 34 TGT, 267 YD, 2 TD, 7.85 YD/TGT
- Amari Cooper - 28 REC, 37 TGT, 316 YD, 2 TD, 8.54 YD/TGT
- Michael Gallup - 8 REC, 17 TGT, 125 YD, 0 TD, 7.35 YD/TGT
Gallup is maintaining a strong playing-time share, logging at least 81% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps in all seven games, including 91% in Week 7. Unfortunately, not all snap-count percentages are created equally. Being on the field for a large majority of snaps with (potentially) Ben DiNucci as your quarterback isn't cause for great optimism. Under different circumstances, I'd be willing to keep Gallup on my bench for spot-starts in promising matchups. The reality facing him now is that you're unlikely to be able to predict when his boom games are coming, if he even has any. I'm moving on from Gallup if I can find anyone on the waiver wire with a more consistent offensive role.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
30.1% rostered
This is less of an alert that it's safe to drop Kerryon Johnson and more of an inquiry as to why he's still on your roster to begin with. Johnson hasn't logged more than 32% of the Lions' offensive snaps in any game this season, and was basically a healthy scratch in Week 7 (he was on the field for 14 snaps with zero targets and zero rushing attempts). He scored his only touchdown in Week 2, which is also the last time he saw more than five touches (eight) or recorded more than 30 scrimmage yards (32).
As much as we lament Matt Patricia's insistence on splitting work between D'Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson, at least he's telling us which of his running backs we can decidedly rule out of the fantasy equation. Johnson needs at least one injury ahead of him in order to inherit a larger role, and this isn't the type of backfield in which that larger role would automatically translate to start-worthy fantasy output anyway.
Hold For Now
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
53% rostered
Joe Mixon is considered week-to-week after missing Week 7, leaving open the possibility that Giovani Bernard is once again poised to be the Bengals' lead back in Week 8. Bernard racked up 18 total touches against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, hauling in all five of his targets en route to 96 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. That's certainly going to get the job done in flex spots.
Samaje Perine logged just one carry and one reception behind Bernard in Week 7, making him the only other running back to even record a touch. Bernard's involvement was a big part of the reason Cincinnati was almost able to reel off a surprise shootout win against Cleveland, and another high-scoring affair could be on the docket with the Tennessee Titans coming to town in Week 8. Another inactive for Mixon renders Bernard a viable flex option this week. And no matter when Mixon returns, we know Bernard is up to the task of leading the Bengals' backfield. He's worthy of a bench spot at the very least for now.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
63.1% rostered
Like Bernard, Jamaal Williams' value is dependent on the health of the lead back in front of him. Also like Bernard, Williams answered the bell when called upon as a fill-in. Williams was on the field for 89% of the Packers' offensive snaps, and converted 23 touches into 114 total yards and a touchdown. He was heavily featured in the red zone; the Packers ran 10 plays inside the 20-yard line, and Williams touched the ball on five of them, including his score.
With Aaron Jones' calf injury having been suffered in a late-week practice before Week 7, it stands to reason that this will be a wait-and-see situation regarding his status for Week 8. Another 20-touch outing in this high-powered offense is valuable no matter which running back gets the volume, and it could be Williams again. This could be a sell-high opportunity if you can get the Jones manager in your league to bite. If not, I'm keeping Williams in the chamber for at least as long as Jones remains on the injury report.
JaMycal Hasty / Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers
7.1% rostered, 82.1% rostered (respectively)
I'm lumping JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon in together because they are currently the only 49ers running backs not on IR (or about to go on IR). With Jeff Wilson Jr. suffering what is believed to be a high ankle sprain after torching the Patriots for 112 rushing yards and three touchdowns, we once again find ourselves in familiar fantasy territory with the 49ers: Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball and he's willing to maintain that approach regardless of who is available, but that doesn't help us decide which bottom-of-the-depth-chart RB is poised for the bulk of the work.
In Weeks 3-4, McKinnon recorded 38 total touches (including a PPR-friendly 10 catches) for 174 yards and two touchdowns. He's followed that up by almost completely disappearing from the offense; he's played on 32% or fewer offensive snaps in the 49ers' last three games.
Hasty has recorded 19 touches for 110 total yards in his last two games. McKinnon has been active for all seven of San Francisco's games and is the far-and-away leader among 49ers RBs in passing-game usage. Yet Hasty seems to have briefly surpassed him on the volume ladder.
If I must offer a prediction on how this situation unfolds in Week 8, I'd bank on McKinnon's receiving work earning him a stronger role in what figures to be a high-scoring contest against the Seahawks.
Revisiting Last Week's "Holds"
N'Keal Harry, New England Patriots
Last week, I encouraged you not to give up on N'Keal Harry, citing two key factors. The first was that the Patriots had just finished dealing with three weeks worth of COVID-related setbacks, and that I expected them to get back on track going forward. The second was that Harry was enjoying a strong 24.2% target share from Weeks 1-3, and I envisioned him resuming a prominent role once the offense started functioning again. Well the offense did not get back to functioning in Week 7, but after watching the Patriots put forth one of their most embarrassing losses in the Bill Belichick era, I'm beginning to wonder if there aren't some much bigger concerns here than those aforementioned COVID issues.
For the second week in a row, the Patriots found themselves trailing by multiple scores at halftime and could not get anything going through the air to respond. Cam Newton played one of his worst games ever, and was eventually benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Amid all this tumult, Harry was targeted just twice. He caught one pass for six yards. I'm still in favor of giving New England the benefit of the doubt and holding onto Harry with hope for better days. If you need the roster spot, though, I no longer consider him a guy who absolutely deserves the wait-and-see approach.
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Among the many things we've learned about Aaron Rodgers over the last 15 years is that when he decides he likes a player, he's going to incorporate that player into the Packers' offense. Rodgers clearly "liked" Robert Tonyan in Weeks 2-4, which is why I wasn't overly worried about Davante Adams coming back and stealing every last bit of Green Bay's passing volume. I chalked up Tonyan's underwhelming Week 6 outing to the Packers getting blown out and not being able to control the game on offense.
Week 7 was a different story. The Packers, as expected, moved the ball and put up points at will in a soft matchup with Houston. Rodgers completed 23 of 34 passes for 283 yards and four touchdowns. This is precisely the type of environment in which I'd have happily bet on Tonyan to bounce back. Unfortunately, he remained in the background for the second consecutive week with two catches on as many chances for 32 yards--while Adams commanded a staggering 16 targets and produced appropriately.
Rodgers attempted four passes inside the five-yard-line, an area where Tonyan could reasonably expect to see some looks. All four targets went to someone else. Tight end is an incredibly volatile position and if you're going to roster a fringe starting option, it might as well be one who plays in a high-scoring offense with one of the league's best quarterbacks. On the other hand, I may have jumped the gun on expecting Tonyan to remain a consistent fantasy TE. Moving on from the tight end in an Adams-dominated passing attack is more justifiable today than it would've been last week.
Other Options To Consider Dropping
- Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
- Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
- Henry Ruggs III - Las Vegas Raiders
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