Corbin Burnes' 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Analysis Of Free Agent Signing

Just a week after trading for All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor, the Arizona Diamondbacks bolstered their starting rotation by signing starting pitcher Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract.

The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the free agent market alongside former World Series champion Max Fried and Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki.

Will Corbin Burnes continue to produce as a Cy Young quality pitcher in the desert? Let’s dive deep into his 2024 production and see if it will hold up in Arizona. If you have any questions about any offseason moves and trends, feel free to chat with me on X @A_Smith_FS.

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Corbin Burnes 2024 Season Review

Burnes spent the entire 2024 campaign in Baltimore after residing in Milwaukee during his first six MLB seasons. Across 194 ⅓ innings in Baltimore, the right-hander held a 15-9 record, 2.92 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP en route to finishing fifth in AL Cy Young voting.

In his lone postseason start, Burnes tossed eight innings of one-run ball.

Burnes maintained stable ratios throughout every month except August when he had a hefty 7.36 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He had an ERA of 3.09 or less every other month, with a lowest of 1.20 ERA in September.

The Orioles season is underway with a strikeout!

88 of Corbin Burnes' 200 strikeouts (44%) came on cutters in the 2023 season, highest among qualified SPs in MLB. pic.twitter.com/qfdF85eS6X

— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) March 28, 2024

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2021, Burnes has made at least 28 starts in each campaign. Burnes made at least 30 starts in his past three seasons, showing that he should be considered a true ace who carries one of the highest floors in fantasy baseball.

Burnes was also voted to the All-Star game in each of his past four seasons and posted a cumulative 2.94 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over these years. 

The 30-year-old has been one of the most reliable starting pitchers, not only in fantasy baseball but in real baseball. Heading into 2025, he should still be viewed as an ace.

A Look Under The Hood

While his standard statistics align with his career averages, let’s examine his metrics more closely to analyze where his production may go in 2025.

Burnes generated a stellar 31.6% hard-hit rate, which placed him in the 95th percentile among qualified pitchers. This was also his best mark in this statistic since his 2021 Cy Young campaign.

Burnes also placed significantly above the average marks in terms of chase rate, barrel rate, ground ball rate, and xERA.

However, the one troubling sign in his seventh MLB season was his strikeout rate. Last summer, Burnes struck out batters at an underwhelming 23.1% rate, placing him in the 51st percentile among qualified pitchers. This was a two-percentage-point drop from his 2023 rate and a hefty seven-point drop from his 2022 mark.

Burnes relied on his cutter 45% of the time, and by looking at this pitch, we can see why his strikeout numbers declined. This pitch averaged a mere 17.6% whiff rate from April through August. However, in September, Burnes modified his delivery and saw the whiff rate of this pitch jump to a strong 26.3% whiff. This rate was much more in line with his pre-2022 numbers.

This increase was credited to his sharp increase in average horizontal break during the season's final month and drastic decrease in average vertical break.

While the sample size was small, it is promising to see the veteran continue to modify his delivery to ensure his most-used pitch still generates whiffs at an elite rate. As a result, fantasy managers should not be concerned with his overall production in 2025. They should even be optimistic, seeing how his strikeout production significantly increased at the end of the season.

2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Leaving the new Camden Yards is typically a downgrade for pitchers, as it is considered one of the best venues for run prevention. Optimists will note that Chase Field in Arizona is just as favorable in terms of expected home runs. According to Baseball Savant, Burnes allowed 21 expected home runs in each venue last season, which may ease some fantasy managers' fears over production due to a change in his home park.

However, Statcast also graded Chase Field as 2024's second-highest offensive environment with a park factor score of 106 despite the below-average expected home run mark. This score was only behind Coors Field (110).

EVAnalytics (The BAT) also scored Chase Field quite well in terms of a conducive offensive environment as it boasted the second-highest BABIP (1.05) and sixth-highest wOBA (1.02).

But the Diamondbacks' defense posted the second-highest Outs Above Average (OAA) last season while the Orioles held the tenth-lowest, which should help offset the increase in offensive production that occurs at Chase Field.

In addition, Burnes will also be pitching in front of a team with championship aspirations this season, and fantasy managers should project a double-digit win season for the right-hander.

The Diamondbacks will now boast a solid 1-2 punch with Burnes at the front and Zac Gallen slotted behind him. However, after these top two, the rotation has several question marks.

Merrill Kelly is slated to be the No. 3 option but dealt with a shoulder injury through most of the 2024 season. He logged just 73 ⅔ innings to the tune of a 4.03 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.

Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez will compete for the final two spots. However, with Burnes now in the rotation, one of these starters will either revert to long relief or could be placed on the trade block. 

In addition, left-hander Jordan Montgomery has had his name tossed around trade rumors throughout the winter. With Burnes now taking a rotation spot, Montgomery could be nearing the end of his disappointing tenure with the Diamondbacks.

With an ADP of 35.73 on the NFBC and the No.6 starting pitcher off the board, fantasy managers should feel confident taking one of the safest arms in the sport at a surprisingly lower cost. Take the discount and bet on his half-decade of ace-level production.

HOT START🔥

• Corbin Burnes OV 5.0 strikeouts ✅

6K’s 62 pitches 0 sweat

Need more 📈🧀 pic.twitter.com/mqwYeEI9Q6

— D-Man🧀 (@Dman_Picks) July 31, 2024

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