RADIO
Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.
Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.
Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.
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Contact Rate Risers
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX): 100% contact rate last seven days (+23%)
Mazara returned from a thumb sprain last week Thursday and hasn’t struck out since. Over his last 21 PA Mazara is hitting .263 with a .807 OPS and one home run. There was a point earlier this year where Mazara looked poised for a power breakout. He hit ten of his 16 home runs in May. His ISO in May (.351) is higher than his ISO in April (.119), June (.114), and July (.022) combined. His batting average has been remarkably consistent this season, other than an atrocious July where Mazara was potentially impacted by the thumb injury. His month-by-month average (not including July) has ranged from .263-.295. His current .272 BA aligns with .278 xBA, however, both numbers seem a little low based on the batted ball profile. Mazara is pulverizing the ball with a 90.8 MPH average exit velocity and has a 42.7% hard-hit rate. His biggest problem this season has been elevation. He’s always hit the ball on the ground a little too much for a supposed power-hitter, but he’s been downright Hosmerian this season with a 56.3% groundball rate and 4.7-degree average launch angle. The power breakout was a fake out, but he might be able to finish with an average around .280.
C.J. Cron (1B, TB): 94% contact rate last seven days (+22%)
No one can go from smoking hot slugger to utterly useless at everything baseball-related quite like C.J. Cron. We got good Cron last week, however, it came in limited playing time as the Rays are having him platoon with left-hander Ji-Man Choi. That will probably continue for the remainder of the season since both players have an OPS around .850 against opposite-handed pitching. In games, he did play Cron hit .313 with a 1.063 OPS and one strikeout in 16 PA. Cron started four games last week, three of which came against left-handed starters. If Cron is mostly facing lefties it makes sense that his numbers would look better. He isn’t too bad against righties with a .777 OPS, and his .234 ISO versus righties is actually higher than his ISO against lefties. Choi is just better than Cron against righties, so while he doesn’t need a platoon partner the Rays are in a position to give him one. The loss in volume hurts more than the potential batting average gains we will get from this platoon. Cron is hitting .250 with a .254 xBA, and based on his career track record Cron is pretty much set in the .250-.260 range. His .288 BA against lefties suggests room for growth as a platoon player, but it comes with a significant cost to counting stats. He is best used in daily lineup leagues or DFS for the remainder of the year.
Robinson Chirinos (C, TEX): 81% contact rate last seven days (+22%)
It says a lot about a player when his hot week gives him a contact rate only 4% above the league average. Making consistent contact hasn’t been Chirinos’ style for the past three years, and his contact rate is at an all-time low at 67.3%. If Chirinos was a qualified hitter he’d have the fourth lowest contact rate, sandwiched between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. An uptick in contact rate didn’t do much for Chirinos, who hit .188 with a .675 OPS and three strikeouts in 20 PA. The contact he made was rather poor, as Chirinos had a 14% hard contact rate and 71.4% flyball rate. Weakly hit flyballs are automatic outs. Contact and Chirinos don’t seem to jive well together, and three years ago he seems to have decided “Screw it, I’m swinging for the fences." His contact rate has been below 73% for the past three seasons and that has coincided with a power breakout. Chirinos has had an ISO above .210 for the past three seasons. Yeah his batting average will be terrible, but if you were relying on Chirinos for batting average don’t worry, you’re team isn’t contending anymore anyway. He’s currently a top-10 catcher and could definitely finish in the top-12.
Contact Rate Fallers
Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR): 42% contact rate last seven days (-24%)
Hernandez has been in freefall since the beginning of July. Since July 1 he is hitting .205 with a .691 OPS and 39% strikeout rate. This last week may have been rock bottom in terms of strikeouts. In 22 PA Hernandez hit .158 with a .483 OPS and 11 strikeouts. If Hernandez could cut down on the strikeouts so that they are reasonably high, around say ~27%, he’d be a monster. His Statcast numbers make him look like J.D. Martinez. A 92 MPH average exit velocity, 16.7% barrel rate, and 48% hard-hit rate are numbers worth salivating over. Hernandez obliterates fastballs for a .632 xSLG and .400 xwOBA, but those dang breaking balls get him. Hernandez whiffs nearly 50% of the time against breaking balls and offspeed pitches and has an xwOBA below .305 versus both pitch types. That gives pitchers an easy approach to Hernandez, and he sees breaking balls 32.5% of the time. The league average hitter will see breaking balls roughly 27% of the time. Peripherals and xStats are fun to dream on, but Hernandez hasn’t produced anything for nearly two months. He is unusable right now.
Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN): 54% contact rate last seven days (-20%)
There haven’t been too many bad weeks for Eugenio Suarez this season, but he coming off a rough one. Suarez hit .214 with a .755 OPS and 13 strikeouts 31 PA. He still hit two homers, so Suarez wasn’t useless last week, but those 13 strikeouts are a hefty total. Suarez has experienced a career revolution over the last two seasons, and when no one noticed Suarez break out in 2017 he decided to break out even harder this year. He somehow found untapped strength in his swing and raised his average exit velocity from 86.2 MPH last year to 91.2 MPH this season. His .293 xBA supports his batting average gains, and his .578 xSLG and .402 xwOBA are elite numbers. There is no reason to worry about Suarez and he should be started in all leagues. At this point, there is no doubting his legitimacy.
Brian Anderson (3B/OF, MIA): 63% contact rate last seven days (-17%)
Anderson is normally an above average contact hitter but had a tough time finding the ball last week. He hit .148 with a .355 OPS and 10 strikeouts in 29 PA. Prior to this month, Anderson had been pretty consistent, but he doesn’t stand out in any one category. His .274 BA is fine, but not quite good enough to make up for the lack of power and steals. He’s better in OBP leagues since Anderson has an 8.8% walk rate this year and consistently had a 10% walk rate in the minors. If he does one thing well it’s hit the ball hard. Anderson has a 90 MPH average exit velocity and 41.7% hard-hit rate this season. That hasn’t translated to much because of his 52% groundball rate. His groundball rate was never this high in the minors, so perhaps there is an adjustment the 25-year-old can make. This week shouldn’t scare owners off from using him, but he isn’t very useful in standard leagues anyway. He is best used in deep Roto leagues or NL-Only. Since he plays every day Anderson is more of an accumulator than a standout player.
