2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values Based On Contact Quality

In part one of this series, I established that zxwOBAcon is the primary driver of season-to-season changes in xwOBAcon and that the biggest risers in zxwOBAcon each season tend to be rebound candidates. Furthermore, rebound candidates recover all of their zxwOBAcon losses more often than not and frequently outperform their season x zxwOBAcon in season x+2 despite declines in season x+1.

Using that information, the 2021 xwOBAcon for each 2021 rebound candidate can be estimated, and a target draft range can be determined for those players. As a brief refresher, rebound candidates (in this case) are hitters who saw their zxwOBAcon decrease between the 2019 and 2020 seasons and in most cases saw their fantasy value suffer as a result.

This article is part two of a three-part series that derives fantasy implications from a breakdown of xwOBAcon. Part one introduced the research and discussed the findings, part two will identify potential fantasy values for 2021 based on the findings, and part three will discuss the longer-term applications of the findings.

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Methodology

Rebound candidates have a wide range of outcomes in the season immediately following their down year, with follow-up seasons ranging from significant improvements to continued decline. Nevertheless, the average rebound candidate posts a zxwOBAcon in their rebound season that’s 107% of their zxwOBAcon in season x, and just over two-thirds of rebound candidates post a zxwOBAcon in their rebound season that’s between 83% and 130% of their zxwOBAcon in season x. 

That’s still a wide range, but it provides some context into the likely outcomes for rebound candidates in 2021. Given that range, each rebound candidate in the table below will receive a middle, high-, and low-end projection for their 2021 xwOBAcon. 

Each projection holds zBBE% and oxwOBAcon constant at the hitter’s 2020 values but changes their zxwOBAcon to determine a 2021 xwOBAcon projection. The middle projection has the hitter posting a zxwOBAcon that’s 107% of their 2019 zxwOBAcon, the average change for all rebound candidates. Hitters are most likely to post a zxwOBAcon near their middle projection in 2021, making it the most reasonable expectation for the hitter’s 2021 zxwOBAcon and resulting xwOBAcon.

The high projection applies a one-standard-deviation improvement in zxwOBAcon relative to the hitter’s 2019 mark. The low projection applies a one-standard-deviation decline in zxwOBAcon relative to the hitter’s 2019 mark. Roughly 16% of hitters will outperform their high projection, and an additional 16% will underperform their low projection, but the vast majority are likely to post a zxwOBAcon in 2021 that results in their middle projection for xwOBAcon.

Largest zxwOBAcon Fallers, 2019 to 2020

The table below includes the 20 hitters who saw their zxwOBAcon fall the most between 2019 and 2020 (min. 100 zBBE) and shows their 2019 and 2020 xwOBAcons. The table also shows the middle, high, and low projections for each hitter’s 2021 xwOBAcon based on the changes in zxwOBAcon outlined above, and each hitter’s ADP coming into the 2020 season.

Keep in mind that these are imperfect projections of a hitter’s 2021 fantasy value -- by holding zBBE% and oxwOBAcon constant, these projections neglect potential changes in those variables. Additionally, contact quality is only one part of a hitter’s overall fantasy value, and these projections (when applied to draft values) effectively hold all non-contact-quality-related variables (like strikeout rate) constant as well. The number of batted balls required to qualify for this section has also dropped from the research to this analysis to allow for the inclusion of 2020 hitters, casting additional uncertainty on the projections.

As a result, the information below should be used only as a guide for part of the puzzle of determining player value in 2021, and the primary takeaway should be that the hitters detailed below should not see their 2021 draft value heavily discounted solely because of contact quality declines between 2019 and 2020. Hitters detailed who do see their 2021 draft values heavily discounted based solely (or largely) on declines in contact quality last season represent likely bargains in 2021 drafts.

Best Potential 2021 Draft Values

Joey Gallo (OF, TEX) - 82 ADP in 2019

Gallo’s ridiculous 2019 contact quality provides him with an extremely attractive set of projections for 2021. Even Gallo’s low-end projection of a .538 xwOBAcon is impressive, as it would rank as the third-best mark among qualified hitters since the start of the 2019 season. Gallo likely has a relatively high chance of underperforming his low-end projection thanks to his absurdly strong 2019 numbers, and his .825 xwOBAcon high-end projection is probably unachievable, but he’s a good bet to see his contact quality bounce back in 2021 and should not be discounted far below his 2019 ADP as a result.

Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL) - 43 ADP in 2019

Blackmon cooled off in a big way after a blazing hot start to the 2020 season to post a .804 OPS and a .358 xwOBAcon for the year, but he has a strong chance of seeing his contact quality rebound in 2021. At -0.036, the difference between Blackmon’s low-end 2021 xwOBAcon projection and his 2019 xwOBAcon is the lowest among the hitters listed in the table above, making him the safest option to match his 2019 xwOBAcon of the group (based on those numbers alone). Fantasy managers should comfortably target Blackmon in drafts if he falls outside of the top-50 picks in 2021 as a result.

J.D. Martinez (OF, BOS) - 22 ADP in 2019

Martinez endured his worst offensive season since 2015 in 2020, and it came with an ugly .367 xwOBAcon and a .394 zxwOBAcon. Two consecutive seasons of xwOBAcon declines may scare some fantasy managers off, but let’s not forget that Martinez still managed to hit over .300 with an OPS above .900 in 2019, and even a mild decrease in contact quality from 2019 (which would be the result of a zxwOBAcon between his middle and low-end projections for 2021) should allow Martinez to post an OPS around .900 again. Martinez was worth a top-20 pick in 2019 according to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research, and he appears likely to at least come close to matching that value in 2021 based on the research outlined in this series of articles. Martinez makes for an excellent value pick if he falls outside of the top-30 picks in drafts this year as a result.

J.D. Davis (3B, NYM) - 170 ADP in 2019

Davis saw his zxwOBAcon drop from .515 in 2019 to .409 last season, driving a .081 point dip in his xwOBAcon. A rebound in Davis’s zxwOBAcon would go a long way in allowing him to reproduce some impressive 2019 production that included a .891 OPS, as his middle projection for xwOBAcon in 2021 sits at .518 -- .022 points higher than his 2019 mark. Combined with Davis’s high-end projection of .623 xwOBAcon, Davis offers a ridiculous amount of upside for his likely draft price. Potential strikeout and walk changes should affect Davis’s 2021 draft value, but he’s worth a top-150 pick based on contact quality alone coming into 2021 and is an appealing value candidate as a result.

Yoan Moncada (3B, CHW) - 64 ADP in 2019

Moncada has said that coronavirus affected his 2020 performance, but the virus’s effects on his sharp decline in xwOBAcon aren’t really measurable. Moncada is likely primed for a contact-quality-related rebound in 2021 regardless of how much of an impact coronavirus had on his contact quality decline in 2020, making him a valuable buy-low option in 2021. If the effects of coronavirus wear off before the 2021 season for Moncada (which they hopefully do), then he has an even better chance of seeing his contact quality bounce back, and fantasy managers should not allow Moncada to fall far below his 64 ADP from last season if he fully recovers from coronavirus.

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