Commanders vs. Falcons: Week 6 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Desmond Ridder, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Sam Howell, Brian Robinson Jr., Logan Thomas

Welcome to our Commanders vs. Falcons fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em matchups analysis article for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season.

Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -2.5
Implied Total: Commanders (19.75) vs. Falcons (22.25)
Pace: Commanders (14th) vs. Falcons (10th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: 20.7% Pass (28th), -10.6% Rush (16th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 26.8% Pass (29th), -21.7% Rush (7th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 20.7% Pass (28th), -10.6% Rush (16th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 26.8% Pass (29th), -21.7% Rush (7th)

Matchups We Love

Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)

Robinson's highlight reel catch only adds to the fandom he receives, and rightfully so. Unfortunately, he played a season-low 61% of the snaps, resulting in more carries for Tyler Allgeier (17-14).  He also had just one more target. It seemed like a smash spot against Houston, making his output and usage even more frustrating.

The higher pace of play for the Falcons and Texans led to more plays, allowing Atlanta to throw 38 passes along with 36 rushing attempts. That's 10 more plays than their season average, meaning it's unlikely they can throw and run that many times. Against Washington, there should be more success as a whole, including on the ground. Robinson is obviously in your lineup while Allgeier maintains flex value.

Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)

Thomas started the season hot with eight catches for 43 yards in Week 1 and a touchdown in Week 2 before suffering a concussion. He blew up again last week against Chicago, leading the team in every receiving category. He also ranks second on the team in targets and leads the team in receiving touchdowns on the season, despite missing six quarters of action. He's a strong streamer against the Falcons, who've allowed the second-most points to tight ends.

Matchups We Hate

Sam Howell (QB, WAS)

Washington forgot to show up in the first half, forcing them to throw 51 times. They called a pass play 84% of the time, which is an absurd run-pass ratio. Howell couldn't escape pressure or throw the ball away quickly enough, taking five more sacks. He's talking an average of nearly six sacks per game, which puts him well above the pace of the 76-sack record set in 2002.

The Falcons pass defense ranks poorly by DVOA because they've allowed seven passing touchdowns to teams that don't typically score through the air. However, they just held C.J. Stroud to his worst performance of the year, so Howell is a riskier streamer this week.

Other Matchups

Falcons Passing Attack

After begging Atlanta to throw at a league-average rate for over a year, they were finally backed into a corner because teams no longer respect their passing attack. Houston, whose run defense is bad, committed all their efforts to slowing down Robinson and Allgeier. They faced eight-plus defenders in the box on 42.86% and 47.06% of their carries, respectively, which ranked third and fourth on the week.

The result was the best outing of Desmond Ridder's young career with 37 passing attempts for 329 yards. That kind of production meant great things for the receiving options, including Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who combined for a 54% target share. Pitts still trailed Jonnu Smith in snaps but led the team in every receiving category. It offers a level of hope that didn't previously exist. As an interesting wrinkle, the team acquired wide receiver Van Jefferson from the Rams, who they deemed as disposable with Cooper Kupp back. He's nowhere near as talented as Pitts or London, but adding another body isn't ideal. The matchup is good enough to take a shot on Pitts as a streamer and London as a top-36 receiver.

Commanders WRs

The projection entering 2023 was Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as the top two options with Curtis Samuel sprinkled in. So far, that's not the way it's worked out. They both trailed Samuel in targets, receptions, and yards while combining for fewer receptions and targets than Thomas had alone. Further complicating the situation is the distribution of volume. 11 different players caught a pass on Thursday, which is not dissimilar to the rest of the season. McLaurin leads this group with a mere 17.1% target share. It leaves McLaurin as a fringe top-36 option with Samuel, who has the better matchup, as a flex, and Dotson as a bench.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)

Much like the other Robinson, taking on the Bears propelled Robinson Jr. into the top 15 of most rankings. Sadly, the game script destroyed his opportunity for a heavy workload, leading to only four carries. What was a positive sign though was the four receptions for 33 yards. Antonio Gibson had more targets (six) and receiving yards (64) on 13 more snaps, but at least we can rely on Robinson not to vanish when they're trailing. Atlanta's run defense is solid, and they are likely the better team at this point, pushing Robinson into the top-24 range.

Notable Injuries

None

More Fantasy Football Analysis