Commanders vs. Eagles TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith

After last week's 35-34 edge-of-your-seat matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati, what can the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles do in Week 11 for some kind of encore for fantasy football managers? This game promises a lot of top-end talent with immense upside, but very little in terms of borderline plays.

Will we get an exciting game full of offense for the fourth straight Thursday night? Fantasy managers are more used to teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns laying eggs on Thursday night (don't worry, you will get those two teams over the next two weeks!). For now, however, one of the best offenses in the league against the best rookie in the league looks like quite the way to kick off Week 11.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 11 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles - 8:15 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries:

• Brian Robinson Jr. (RB - WSH) - Hamstring - Will play on Thursday
• Dallas Goedert (TE - PHI) - Hamstring - Will play on Thursday
• DeVonta Smith (WR - PHI) - Hamstring - Will play on Thursday

Commanders vs. Eagles Matchup Breakdown

At first glance, you might look at this game and think a couple of things. Rookie quarterback, short week, traveling to Philadelphia, hostile crowd. There is no way Jayden Daniels can win in this environment, right? However, Daniels has been proving people wrong on the road all year long. Washington is 3-2 on the road and has had a much more efficient offense away from home.

Take Command on Thursday 😤@Toyota | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/Uqw6UD4ArL

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 13, 2024

Daniels' completion rate is much better on the road (76.9% to 62.3%), his yards per attempt are higher (8.6 to 7.8), and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (7:1 on the road) is better than at home (4:1). As a team, Washington also has 11 rushing touchdowns away from home and just seven in its home stadium.

Philadelphia is going to be Daniels' toughest test all year. And it will also be the toughest test for the Washington defense as well. On the back of its big four (Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith), Philadelphia is sixth in red-zone scoring attempts per game and touchdowns per game. It is third in average scoring margin and is seventh in points per game in 2024. Washington is just 24th in the league in stopping teams in the red zone, so if the Eagles spend much time there, this game could be over in a hurry.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Jayden Daniels (QB, WSH)

Despite two of his last four games going for under 10 fantasy points, Jayden Daniels is still QB8 in fantasy points per game this season. He has seven games of 19.9 fantasy points or more thanks in large part to his accuracy on the deep ball. He is sixth in the NFL with 8.2 yards per attempt and third in fantasy points per dropback.

Terry McLaurin (WR, WSH)

Jayden Daniels has turned Terry McLaurin into a superstar and Scary Terry is now in the top 15 in wide receiver fantasy points per game (12.9). McLaurin just set a personal record with his fourth 100-yard game this season, and he is doing it while averaging over 15 yards per reception (he is at 14.1 for his career).

It’s great to see Terry McLaurin becoming the player he was supposed to be alongside Jayden Daniels #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/6136BnDIyC

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) November 12, 2024

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)

What more can be said about Jalen Hurts' season at this point? If Lamar Jackson didn't exist, Hurts would be the QB1 in fantasy football this year. Not only is he throwing the ball well, but he has eight touchdowns thanks to how many times Saquon Barkley has been tackled near the goal line. Hurts' eight rushing scores trail only Derrick Henry in all of football. Despite some recent improvements, the Commanders have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the league this year.

Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI)

Despite being vultured at the goal line multiple times per game over the last month, Saquon Barkley still ranks third in fantasy points per game this season with 19.5. That's because the Commanders allow the fifth-most rushing yards and sixth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Barkley has 12 breakaway runs already this season (second among running backs), and the Commanders have struggled to contain big plays recently.

By the time this season is done, Saquon Barkley’s highlight reel is going to be something you have to set aside time to binge watch.

pic.twitter.com/PUydvySllI

— Eagles Fan Central (@EagleFanCentral) November 12, 2024

A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)

The only thing missing from A.J. Brown's game right now are the truly elite target numbers we have seen in years past and Week 1 this season (when he had 10 targets). Despite not getting more than seven in any of his last four games, Brown ranks as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. The wildest thing about Brown's amazing season? He has one red-zone target all year. Imagine if Hurts looked for him in that area. A top-2 wide receiver spot would be in play.

DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)

DeVonta Smith's fantasy football box scores are often more volatile than you want to see, but no receiver on this Eagles team has a higher ceiling than Smith. But for all the ups and downs, Smith is 15th among his peers in target share, fifth in route participation, and 14th in yards per route run. He has the potential to blow the roof off this Washington secondary, which has allowed the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WSH)

Brian Robinson Jr. has missed three of Washington's last five games with an injury. In the last three games he has played, he hasn't topped 47% of snaps played. He is on the razor's edge for me as a startable player on Thursday if he is active, but he has declared himself ready to go.

A team won't deploy a player off injury on a Thursday if it feels it would benefit from that player getting 10 more days off, so I'm trusting Robinson if he goes. In games he played this year, Robinson has at least a touchdown or 75+ total yards in every one of them. He is a risky start, but the touchdown upside is immense.

Washington’s record with and without Brian Robinson this year:

With: 6-1
Without: 1-2#RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/nXmkrBm3Z0

— kj (7-10) (@DEFUNDDCSPORTS) November 11, 2024

Austin Ekeler (RB, WSH)

In PPR formats, we should start Ekeler as a flex play, but he jumps up to a must-start if Robinson is ruled out again between now and the start of the game. In the last two games, Ekeler has averaged 14 touches per game and has scored three times. Ekeler played over 70% of snaps last week and has shown he still has something left in the tank at 29 years old.

Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)

After playing essentially zero snaps for five straight weeks, Dallas Goedert returned in Week 10 and played 43 snaps (63%), had three targets, and caught two balls for 25 yards and a touchdown. He remains an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, Week 10 was likely just a warm-up to a game like Thursday night where the Eagles will need every offensive piece at their disposal.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Olamide Zaccheaus (WRs, WSH)

Between these three receivers, they have two total games between them where one of them scored more than 10 half-PPR points. If you must pick one, roll with Noah Brown, who jumped up to 89% of snaps last week and has three straight games with at least six targets.

Zach Ertz (TE, WSH)

There was a two-week stretch where Zach Ertz scored more than 11 fantasy points per game a few weeks back. But since then, he has just five catches for 36 yards in his last two games. Most notably, he only has two red-zone targets in his last three games.

TE Zach Ertz will return to Philadelphia to play against the #Eagles for the first time on Thursday.

Will be extremely weird seeing him on the opposite team in a pivotal game. pic.twitter.com/KIMGvkLxyK

— Jake Rabadi (@JakeRabadiNFL) November 11, 2024

Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson (WRs, PHI)

Johnny Wilson scored a nice touchdown for his first NFL score last week and Jahan Dotson consistently plays more than 40% of snaps even when both top wide receivers are healthy. But both are outside the top 125 wide receivers in fantasy points per game. Almost 80% of targets this season go to Brown, Smith, and Goedert.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI)

Kenneth Gainwell plays fewer than 30% of snaps in games that are competitive and is RB79 in half-PPR fantasy points per game. He is an easy fade in this game.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Over/Under: 48.5

The big question when considering how to bet this game is which side will dominate when the Commanders have the ball. On the road this year, they score 30.0 points per game, ranked third in the NFL. Conversely, Philadelphia allows just 20.0 points per game at home. However, the Eagles' true home games this year have been against Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Cleveland (with Deshaun Watson). The game against Green Bay counted as a home game but was played in Brazil.

This will be the Eagles' toughest defensive test at home this year. Expected to be at full strength, I believe the Commanders can hang with the Eagles and match them point for point, but Philadelphia's ability to control the clock and run the ball will allow it to pull away at the end.

Put me down for Philadelphia 30, Washington 24.

The Pick: Philadelphia -3.5, OVER 48.5

2024 Record:
Spread (5-5), Over/Under (7-3)

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