RADIO
What the hell is Week Zero, anyway? A week that isn't really a week? I'm not going to complain too much because COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK! Hopefully for a full season this time.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right?
Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
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I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Even in a crazy season like 2020, I finished at 243-249 on the season, but I only lost nine betting points. Considering I was as low as 38% at one point during the season, I will take it. Overall, I start the season with 28 betting points in six seasons of doing this. It's in the black, and it took me nearly three years to pay off a monumentally bad 2016 season. This will be the first and last time I mention that little hiccup.
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience. I've been waiting to bring this college football betting series over to RotoBaller since I started here back in February, so let's get to this!
There are only five games in the first week, and one of them is a FCS vs. FBS game. Due to the lack of accurate spreads on those games, I won't make official picks on those. They aren't on the board at most Vegas casinos anyway (if you absolutely INSIST on betting this one, take SJSU. That's my unofficial pick). I will have my picks for next week up a little earlier in the week as well due to games starting on Thursday (the Wednesday game is FBS vs. FCS as well and it's not on any board that I can find).
Nebraska (-7.5) at Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Illini rolled Nebraska last year by 18 in Lincoln in what was by far the Illini's best game of the season last year. It was all downhill from there and Lovie Smith got fired. Bret Bielema is in and so is a whole new scheme. This line opened at -9.5, and if you shop around a little, you can get it under a touchdown. That's a big swing from last year, but Nebraska has a really good incoming freshman class, a really good receiver transfer in Samori Toure, and a rejuvenated quarterback behind a better line.
This is still going to be an ugly game at times, but Illinois is basically going to be learning on the fly and they can't throw to win. Michigan transfer Brandon Peters will help, but this is going to be ugly while Illnois learns a whole new system. Josh Imatorbhebhe is in the NFL and their best receiver was their starting quarterback for part of last year. I'll take Nebraska by double digits, and it may be the only time you hear me say that this year.
Connecticut at Fresno State (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The last time we saw UConn on a football field was November 30 of 2019 when they lost to Temple by 32. The only teams they beat in 2019 where Wagner and UMass. The only FBS team that they scored more than 23 points against was East Carolina (and they still lost). Even though UConn returns a lot of starters, this is not a good team.
Meanwhile, Fresno returns their quarterback, top two running backs, top three receivers and receiver Zane Pope, who missed all but two games last year. I have serious questions about Fresno's defense, but they wont be tested here. This is too low. Fresno rolls!
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Hawaii at UCLA (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that feels like a lot. This line opened at -11 and is as high as -18 with no juice in some places. Hawaii only loses Miles Reed and Rico Bussey from an offense that rolled Houston in the New Mexico Bowl to close last season. The Bruins only lost four games by a combined 15 points last year, but they allowed more than 40 points in three of those games and 38 to Oregon in the other.
Therein lies the problem. Dorian Thompson-Robinson looks to have regained the form that made him a freshman phenom in 2018, but the loss of Demetric Felton to the NFL is going to hurt. UCLA is going to win this game by double digits. I just don't know if it's by more than two touchdowns. I'll take Hawaii and the points.
UTEP (-9.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So...uh...the Miners are favored. To put this into perspective, UTEP was favored twice last year. Once against Stephen F. Austin and once against Abilene Christian. They won by games by a combined 14 points, thus losing both spread picks.
New Mexico State didn't play in 2020, but they did play this spring.....and lost to Division II Tarleton State....by 26 freaking points! Look, UTEP sucks. They really do. But there is no way they are as bad as the Aggies. Deion Hankins could win this by himself. Give me UTEP.
Overall, I have 12 betting points on the line this week. I fully expect to win them all, but who knows how that will go. Weeks 1-3 are very strange in college football and are usually pretty difficult for betting purposes. Good luck out there!
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