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We had the return of Tuesday and Wednesday college football this week and I love it! Those picks were released in the DFS articles again this week. We have a busy Thursday and Friday again, which I also love. There is no better time to be a college football fan than in October when we have games five days a week!
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year, but there is still a lot of season left. We'll recap how Week 8 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 9.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 24, and Friday, October 25
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
No chance. I'm taking the team that beat Vandy and thumped James Madison. Give me the Eagles!
Syracuse at (19) Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know that I trust the Syracuse defense enough, but I also look at Pitt's schedule and realize that Syracuse might be the best team Pitt has faced. I'll take the Orange. I have a feeling about this one.
Louisville (-7.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Eagles just got smoked by the Hokies and Louisville almost toppled Miami. I'm lowering the bet because of the hook, but this feels like a game that Louisville should win.
(17) Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not touching this. I'm just going to watch the game and enjoy it! Ashton Jeanty is going to have a big game and so is Ricky White III. This is going to be one of the better games of the weekend. Give me UNLV. I'll say a field goal decides it.
Rutgers at USC (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Rutgers really that much worse than Maryland? I don't think so. This is too high. Give me Rutgers.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Troy at South Alabama (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
USA didn't pull away late. They coasted on the strength of the defense.
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Kennesaw State defense is solid. The offense? Not so much...
Louisiana Tech (-11.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a rough loss for the Bulldogs.
Western Kentucky at Sam Houston (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is not your normal WKU team. They can run the ball this year!
Florida International (-7.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jevon Jackson is a difference-maker for the Miners. He's their best running back since Aaron Jones.
Georgia State at Marshall (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Whatever the question is, Zach Gibson is not the answer. A.J. Turner is definitely the answer for Marshall.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where was this Tech team in September?
Florida State at Duke (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We've already established that Florida State can't fire Mike Norvell, and the buyout is still prohibitive into next year. Will the Seminoles survive? We are now realizing how special of a player Jordan Travis was. I thought he was really good last year, but seeing Florida State on the canvas before September ended cemented Travis's legacy.
Florida State bro… it’s not even funny anymore..
— College Football Fan (@CFB_Fan_) October 19, 2024
Florida State did lose a lot from last year, but we see the good coaches reload year after year. Even in the era of college football free agency, Florida State has managed not only to fail but fail spectacularly in a watered-down ACC. Some of that has to be on the coaching staff.
(2) Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon notched their first road shutout in 30 years...one week after Purdue almost beat a ranked Illinois team. The gap between the haves and have-nots in the Big Ten (18) is about the size of the Grand Canyon.
Oklahoma State at (13) BYU (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Garret Rangel made a huge difference for the Pokes, but the Cougars managed to escape. Their 40-anniversary tour rolls on.
Fresno State (-2.5) at Nevada: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nevada had a strong game, but still couldn't survive Fresno's offensive line.
(6) Miami (FL) (-4.5) at Louisville: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I need the extra points for correctly predicting the margin of victory. This game started innocently enough, but then this happened.
#Louisville Scoop and score overturned.
Can Ward and Miami got away with one here look like a fumble to me . pic.twitter.com/NaUxlFB6lK
— Hoody (@TheHoody27) October 19, 2024
It was another controversial call that Miami got the benefit of the doubt of. This is one of those calls that varies greatly from crew to crew and league to league (go look at some of the NFL calls over the years on plays like this. The Raiders still haven't recovered). To me, that looks like his arm was coming forward.
I know...I know. I sound like a Miami fan. I'm impartial. I promise. I'm not even impartial. I bought tickets right by the Miami tunnel for the 2007 game in Norman in the first meeting since that damn Orange Bowl. I let them have it. I couldn't help it. I was still sore 20 years later.
Again a close call like this overshadows another good game. I think the crew ultimately got it right, but Miami being one of the most hated college football teams, you don't see many that share my opinion on social media.
However, if I'm not impartial, I'm not doing anyone any good. Miami has been involved in many controversial calls this year, but for the most part, I think the officials got them right. Now, about the ineligible receiver downfield on the winning touchdown against Cal...
Virginia at (10) Clemson (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Thanks, Clemson. If the Tigers hadn't put in the backups, I had no chance of winning this. It was another dominant performance by the Tigers on offense. More importantly, it preserved my perfect record picking Virginia this year.
Nebraska at (16) Indiana (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was supposed to be the game where Indiana would be exposed as frauds. A good Nebraska defense was going to give them trouble. Instead, the Hoosiers nuked the Nebraska defense and forced freshman Dylan Raiola into his worst collegiate game. Does anyone really want to play Indiana right now?
Auburn at (19) Missouri (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That stupid half! Brady Cook was knocked out of this game and taken to the hospital in the first half. He came back and led Missouri to victory in the fourth quarter. There's no way Missouri wins the game without him.
Brady Cook went to the hospital for an MRI during today’s game…
“I’ve only got 2.5 games left on Faurot Field. I’m not missing this one in the hospital.”
Cook returned. Mizzou won. WARRIOR.
(via @PowerMizzoucom) pic.twitter.com/3kfe5cw8BN
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 19, 2024
East Carolina at (23) Army (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The half gives back here. The line was up to -18 by kickoff, so I'm glad I got it when I did!
Wisconsin (-7.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tawee Walker carrying the Badgers sums up Oklahoma's season perfectly. He should be carrying the Sooners, but they were too dumb to put him on scholarship. Oklahoma desperately needs a back like Walker. Go figure. I was always on your side, Tawee. I'm glad to see you having success with your new team.
UCLA at Rutgers (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm upset about this one because I knew it was coming. I let the early kick cloud my judgment. Don't be shocked if UCLA rebounds from a 1-5 start to make a bowl game. The Bruins will likely only be dogs against USC from here on out.
Wake Forest at Connecticut (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Another week, and more bad officiating. Seriously...enough is enough. There have been more bad calls that affected the outcome of the game than in the last five years combined and we're only halfway through the season.
In this case, it was UConn that was robbed of a chance to finish the game. That was the definition of pass interference on the last UConn play from scrimmage and crickets from the officials. Connecticut may not have won, but they might have been in field goal range had the penalty rightfully been called.
Arizona State at Cincinnati (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was an impressive performance by the Cincinnati defense. Cam Skattebo did score both Arizona State touchdowns, but he was held to 75 yards on 17 carries.
Louisiana (-4.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ben Wooldridge has the Cajuns bowl eligible and October isn't even over. That ULL-ULM game is going to be lit!
South Carolina at Oklahoma (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can tell by my pick that I expected to lose this game. What I did not expect was three turnovers in the first eight plays and suffering our worst home loss in 10 years (I still have nightmares about that 2014 Baylor game)...not to mention losing consecutive home games for the second time since 1999.
The good news is that Jackson Arnold had a respectable game. The Michael Hawkins Jr. experiment has been shelved for now since Oklahoma burned Arnold's redshirt in this game. Brent Venables wouldn't have done that if he didn't intend to start Arnold for at least the next game.
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cole Snyder is back in MACtion. This time leading the Eagles to an unlikely win with 22 points in the fourth quarter to snatch this game away from Central.
Tulsa at Temple (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This might be the worst Tulsa team this century...which is saying a lot.
(7) Alabama (-3.5) at (11) Tennessee: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both goal posts are down. Security is fighting it. Let it happen my guys. Go Vols. pic.twitter.com/2t90KUrIaC
— Paxton Elrod (@paxton_elrod) October 20, 2024
Yes, the goalposts came down. But then what happened? That is the subject of great debate. Some say they never made it out of Neyland Stadium this time because security wasn't having it. Others say they took another bath. Where are the social media posts describing the whereabouts?
(12) Notre Dame (-10.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2 4
I raised the bet with Haynes King out. It's a good thing I did. I needed it this week.
(24) Michigan (-3.5) at (22) Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This should have surprised absolutely no one. Jack Tuttle isn't the answer either. We're all shocked. This is our shocked face.
Charlotte at (25) Navy (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew that I should have maxed this one out.
North Carolina State at California (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What's frustrating is that Cal should have won this game. I guess it doesn't matter. They still wouldn't have covered...
Houston vs. Kansas (-5.5) at Kansas City, MO: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal conjured up images of the 2022 Jayhawks in this one. Unfortunately, it's too little too late.
Hawaii at Washington State (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mainland Hawaii is somewhere between UMass and Tulsa.
Texas State (-9.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yep. Old Dominion is my 2024 kryptonite.
Ohio at Miami (OH) (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The 100th Battle of the Bricks saw the Redhawks win at home for the first time in six years in this rivalry.
Kent State at Bowling Green (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cursed by another half. The Bowling Green defense was solid in this one. Of course, it's easy against an offense like Kent. In other news, Harold Fannin Jr. is pretty damn good.
Harold Fannin caught this with one hand and a helmet pic.twitter.com/OA10DWbHIk
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 19, 2024
Western Michigan (-1.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How does the Buffalo defense hold Toledo, then allow 48 at home to Western Michigan? This team drives me nuts!
Toledo at Northern Illinois (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
...or not. The struggle is real for the NIU offense.
UAB at South Florida (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UAB is better with Jalen Kitna, but they would have had no chance against Byrum Brown.
Florida Atlantic at UTSA (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's the UTSA team that I remember. Too bad I had bailed on them weeks ago...
Rice at Tulane (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
E.J. Warner only threw one touchdown pass in this one, but he helped keep the Rice offense on the field long enough to not get blown out.
USC (-7.5) at Maryland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yes, USC blew up the Pac-12 for this. Congratulations, you morons...
This is what USC blew up the Pac-12 for. pic.twitter.com/7PDWWefo7q
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 19, 2024
Colorado at Arizona (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If Isaiah Augustave is the back that Colorado has been looking for, look out.
Baylor at Texas Tech (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Lubbock, Texas-native Sawyer Robertson totaled FIVE passing touchdowns to lead the Bears to the W ?#Big12FB | @BUFootball pic.twitter.com/yzeGvGxsAi
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 20, 2024
So much for the Texas Tech defense...
New Mexico (-1.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Utah State jumped out early and Spencer Petras did have a big day. Devon Dampier had a bigger day, especially on the ground. 95 combined points later and the Lobos are staring down .500.
Wyoming at San Jose State (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Walker Eget is still better than any quarterback Wyoming has. Let's hope Emmett Brown is okay.
James Madison (-9.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win (by two touchdowns!). It just goes to show you that the Eagles are a very fun (and very dangerous) team again this year.
(14) Texas A&M (-17.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Van Buren in his last two games: (#1 Georgia/#14 Texas A&M)
• 516 Yds
• 6 TDsThe Future pic.twitter.com/88p6Oht9zw
— FergSZN (@FergSZN) October 19, 2024
This is especially impressive given what the Georgia defense did to Texas in Austin. Give Michael Van Buren Jr. a year. He might be the best QB in a conference loaded with them. If only Oklahoma had someone this cool under pressure...
(8) LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It wasn't close. LSU demolished a solid Arkansas team. The Tigers are lurking in the SEC weeds and Caden Durham gives the offense balance. If they had that against USC, the Tigers would be undefeated.
Ball State at Vanderbilt (-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's games like this that convince me that Vanderbilt is still a long way away from consistently winning against good teams.
Arkansas State (-6.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Southern Miss can make any team look good for one week.
(5) Georgia at (1) Texas (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas ? thoughts
1. Think Texas underestimated Georgia's speed on the defensive front 7
2. QB play will get a lot of scrutiny, but Georgia won this up front
3. Can't be 1 dimensional against elite teams
4. Terrible on 3rd down when it mattered
5. All goals still in play pic.twitter.com/YJOckC8kQb
— Jim Thrasher (@thrashman10) October 20, 2024
This is what it looks like to lose with class. Georgia showed up and played a great game defensively. Texas didn't give them much. Georgia went in there and took it. The Bulldogs tanked the draft stock of Quinn Ewers and destroyed Arch Manning's storybook comeback bid.
I don't think any less of Ewers than I did before the game. He's still one of the best quarterbacks in this class. How he rebounds from this will decide what happens to his draft stock after this.
Central Florida at (9) Iowa State (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don't know what this was, but it certainly wasn't Cyclones football. Jacurri Brown made a giant difference for Central Florida. R.J. Harvey decimated one of the best rush defenses (statistically) in college. This has to feel like a win of sorts for UCF.
On the other side of the coin, this was Rocco Becht not playing his best game, but still leading his team to a win. Becht didn't make mistakes despite a subpar (20-of-46) passing day.
(17) Kansas State (-2.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was absolute domination by the Wildcats. This defense is better than advertised. Most of the damage that BYU did in Provo was on special teams and a defensive touchdown. They didn't get it against the K-State D.
Iowa (-5.5) at Michigan State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Let's give some love to a kicker. Jonathan Kim set a Michigan State record with six made field goals. The Iowa defense was nowhere to be found. Aidan Chiles had his coming out party in East Lansing. And that much-improved Iowa offense? Shut out in the first half. That's the most Iowa thing ever.
North Texas at Memphis (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Much as I thought, Chandler Morris had a big game. The North Texas defense also gave up a ton of points, but Memphis wasn't much better. This was great fun to watch for those of us who appreciate offense. This looked like an old Big 12 game...
Kentucky (-1.5) at Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Much like the UCLA pick, I also knew better in this one. Jadan Baugh gave Florida the added dimension that it needed. DJ Lagway had some big plays and also a couple of ill-advised ones. Overall, it was a strong game for Lagway and a huge game for the Gators going forward. Florida should at least make a bowl this year.
(21) SMU (-16.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
We can't get too excited about the stats against a team like Stanford, but Kevin Jennings had a really nice game.
Colorado State (-6.5) at Air Force: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew exactly what kind of game this was going to be after Avery Morrow ripped off a huge run on the opening play from scrimmage and then promptly fumbled into the end zone. The Rams had the last laugh.
UNLV (-6.5) at Oregon State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was really impressed with Gevani McCoy, but UNLV does what UNLV does. They take the ball away. The Rebels have the best turnover ratio in college this year. I think it's just because of this bad boy.
Whoever came up with the Turnover Slot Machine at UNLV deserves a raise
(Video Credit: @stevecofield) pic.twitter.com/TGv2IPkJbT
— The Get Back Coach (@TheGBCoach) May 12, 2023
TCU at Utah (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a rough game for Isaac Wilson and the rest of the Utah offense. The home field didn't mean as much for Utah. This looked like a team that was lost without Cameron Rising.
College Football Betting Season Results
I finished just a touch under .500 on the week at 28-31. That puts me at 211-192 on the season. That's still a solid number. I know I missed both max bets this week, so it's assured that I lost points. How many did I lose?
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-3 (24-25) = -1
2. 15-12 (92-73) = 38
3. 6-11 (54-65) = -33
4. 4-3 (30-16) = 56
5. 0-2 (12-15) = -15
I lost 15 points on the week, which is a bit disappointing. I'm now up 45 points on the season. This could be another tough week, but there are still some good spots. I just need to make sure that I hit the right ones.
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