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We had the return of Tuesday and Wednesday college football this week and I love it! Those picks were released in the DFS articles. We have a busy Thursday and Friday again this week, which I also love. There is no better time to be a college football fan than in October when we have games five days a week!
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year, but there is still a lot of season left. We'll recap how Week 7 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 8.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 17, and Friday, October 18
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Georgia State at Marshall (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, this feels high, doesn't it? Both teams are mired in a quarterback controversy. How quickly bettors forget that the Panthers beat Vanderbilt. Yes, the same Vanderbilt that beat Alabama. Give me Georgia State.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that hook. At all. It's enough to keep me off of Tech. Beating Stanford handily isn't much of an achievement. BC and Thomas Castellanos almost beat Missouri in Columbia. Give me BC.
Florida State at Duke (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I haven't seen anything from the Noles that says they'll show up for this one. Give me Duke.
(2) Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This has letdown written all over it. I don't think Oregon will lose, but Ryan Browne and Devin Mockobee are going to keep the game within about half this line. Give me Purdue.
Oklahoma State at (13) BYU (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ollie Gordon II can't run the ball and Alan Bowman isn't any better than he was three years ago at Texas Tech. BYU rolls.
Fresno State (-2.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is falling fast. Savion Red's coming out party against Oregon State is skewing this, but I still like Nevada outright. They have something going on there in Reno.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
There is a #CollegeFootball game tonight! We don't need an article for one pick, so I'll make it here. @RotoBaller @RotoBallerNFL
Florida International at Liberty (-17.5): I don't like the hook, but FIU beating La Tech at home isn't fooling me. Liberty for 3 confidence points.
— Mike Marteny (@MikeMarteny) October 8, 2024
Florida International at Liberty (-17.5): MISS!
FIU pushed the Flames to overtime before finally losing this one.
There is another #CollegeFootball game tonight! We don't need an article for one pick, so again, I'll make it here. @RotoBallerNFL
New Mexico State at Jacksonville State (-20.5): Every time I think the Aggies aren't that bad, they prove me wrong. I'll take JSU for 2 points.
— Mike Marteny (@MikeMarteny) October 9, 2024
New Mexico State at Jacksonville State (-20.5): HIT!
More domination from the Gamecocks.
Coastal Carolina at James Madison (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is nowhere close to the CCU team that was the class of the Fun Belt in 2020 and 2021.
Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Evan Bullock is going to salvage a lost season for the Bulldogs.
UTEP at Western Kentucky (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The WKU offense, much like their helmets, is a thing of beauty.
Tonight the most absurd football helmet on earth will be worn for a Thursday night game.
This is why CFB is the greatest pic.twitter.com/nnoqMKOnPV
— CFB_takes (@4thandsaturday) October 10, 2024
Northwestern at Maryland (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maryland completely lost control in this game. Mistake after mistake after mistake. If they had played a team with an explosive offense, they would have lost by 50.
UNLV (-18.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UNLV was up 41-7 at the half. They let off the gas and went vanilla on offense to run the clock...and blow the cover.
(16) Utah (-4.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Arizona State broke Utah. Cam Skattebo proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that he is the best Cam in college.
This might be the greatest rush I’ve ever captured.
I have hundreds of gigabytes of Cam Skattebo footage to look through to confirm that statement. But it’s undoubtedly Skat who holds the title. pic.twitter.com/HPfVn1JuFb
— Nick Borgia (@Nick_Borgia) October 12, 2024
Utah announces tonight in a statement that Cam Rising’s injury is season-ending pic.twitter.com/UOdybMkHrb
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) October 15, 2024
South Carolina at (7) Alabama (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The only fool here is me. South Carolina's defense did an outstanding job in this game, but after nearly every big defensive play in the second half, the offense gave it back. LaNorris Sellers looked much better in this one, but he's still making freshman mistakes.
(10) Clemson (-20.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Clemson might still be the class of the ACC. If not, they're awfully close.
(21) Missouri (-27.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Easy money. I don't know what I was skittish about.
Washington at Iowa (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Washington getting a taste of Iowa football. pic.twitter.com/4aBafO4KSO
— Paul Jake Jacobsen (@HuskerTapes) October 12, 2024
That graphic says it all. Kaleb Johnson had another big game for Iowa and is vaulting up draft lists. Iowa scored 40 points in a game for the second time this season. The last time they did that was in the 2020 COVID season.
Wisconsin at Rutgers (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Chez Mellusi did Wisconsin a favor by leaving. Oklahoma should have kept Tawee Walker. That's all I'm saying...
? 24 car.
? 198 yards
? 3 TDTawee Walker ran wild, and posted his second straight 3-TD game, in @BadgerFootball's 42-7 win at Rutgers. #B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/DF4Y2UGvkV
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 12, 2024
Georgia Tech (-4.5) at North Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jamal Haynes...I LOVE YOU MAN!
Jamal Haynes' game winner just made an already crazy day of football even crazier ?
(via @TheCW_Sports)pic.twitter.com/cbyravLOCv
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 12, 2024
68 yards to the house with 16 seconds left. Of course, I should thank the North Carolina defense for not impeding his progress.
Ball State (-4.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ball State giving up 21 fourth-quarter points to blow the cover was rough. The Cardinals couldn't cover Chrishon McCray.
Toledo (-9.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The transformation of the Buffalo defense has been impressive. They might have enough of a defense to win the MAC this year.
UAB at Army (-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Army's best start since 1996 rolls on. Army and Navy are a combined 11-0 for the first time since 1945.
Miami (OH) (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Brett Gabbert had more touchdown passes (four) than incompletions (three). It's safe to say he's back to his pre-injury form from last year.
(1) Texas (-14.5) vs. (18) Oklahoma at Dallas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew this would happen, but it didn't make it any easier. The Texas defense looked great in this one. Of course, it's easier to look great when your opponent is no threat to get the ball downfield. Oklahoma didn't even try. That's not taking anything away from Texas. Their defensive execution was the best I've seen from a Texas team in a long time.
Oklahoma missing the top five receivers on the depth chart had something to do with it, but Michael Hawkins Jr. tucking and running instead of looking through progressions was just as big of a problem. The Sooners called the game like they were trying to avoid the blowout. At no point did they try to win this game.
That's why I'm mad. Sure, as an Oklahoma fan, I never want to lose to Texas. However, I'll take the loss, even a big loss, as long as we at least tried to win the game. If Oklahoma were really trying to win the game, Jackson Arnold would have played in the second half. Hawkins can't throw the ball down the field at this point in his career.
The defense was great in the first quarter, but they got tired easily since the offense couldn't stay on the field. That led to a gazillion missed tackles and blown coverages. Texas played a sloppy game on offense and still blew us out.
QUINTREVION WISNER, 20.9 MPH ?♂️?
He was running the ball so well in Dallas, fighting through contact, elite vision with plenty of speed.
Dude is a BEASTpic.twitter.com/sDicvK2f5y
— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) October 14, 2024
Happy coming out party, Quintrevion Wisner. The running back job is his, and even if CJ Baxter comes back in 2025, Wisner might beat him out anyway.
(4) Penn State (-3.5) at USC: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We haven't gone a week in the last month without at least one egregious poor call affecting the outcome of a game. This was the game this week. This was a clear hold or pass interference on the USC receiver in the end zone. On the very next play, another USC receiver was held. I have 20/200 vision without corrective lenses and even my blind ass could have seen this.
Here are the two DPI calls the refs didn’t make on Penn State. USC got hosed.
We can’t keep letting refs decide games.
This is CRIMINAL.#PSUvsUSC https://t.co/pmPHTSPoXC pic.twitter.com/IBNNbjLPG4
— Mike McDaniel (@MikMcDaniel) October 12, 2024
USC missed a field goal after these two missed calls. At the very least, the Trojans would have had four chances from around the 10-yard line after these penalties. It completely altered the game. I'm not a fan of either team, but I am a fan of the sport. This is completely disgusting for games to be decided by missed calls or wrong calls. This is a multi-million-dollar industry. Getting calls right is the bare minimum that you can do for your fans.
Penn State never led in this game until the field goal in the bottom half of the first overtime. Watching the Penn State offense in the second half, I tend to think they would have pulled this out anyway, but we'll never know.
Lost in the filth of these two ridiculous no-calls is how great of a game Tyler Warren had. This should have been the story of the game. He tied an NCAA record for most receptions in a game by a tight end.
Penn State TE Tyler Warren vs. USC
17 catches, 224 yards and a TD.
Checkout the insane play design on his TD catch. He actually started the play at center. pic.twitter.com/jU1E1hFktq
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) October 13, 2024
Stanford at (11) Notre Dame (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet on Stanford under 3 wins for the season. This team is awful. Where would the one more win come from? How in the world did they beat Syracuse in the Loud House?
California at (22) Pittsburgh (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
You know the week is not going your way when the favored team can't win by a field goal instead of a safety.
Purdue at (23) Illinois (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ryan Browne can lead the Boilermakers back to respectability. Purdue should have made the switch at least two weeks ago. I wish they would have pushed this one more overtime. Teams usually have a finite number of two-point conversion plays and Purdue had just used one.
Louisville (-7.5) at Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Virginia is very close to being back in the upper tier of the ACC. The defense looked solid against a better-than-advertised Louisville offense. Isaac Brown is a very good back.
Cincinnati at Central Florida (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's a lost season for UCF. K.J. Jefferson is benched. EJ Colson looked lost. Miami transfer Jacurri Brown is now tasked with making sure that R.J. Harvey didn't come back for nothing. At this point, the Knights will be lucky to make a bowl game.
San Jose State at Colorado State (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The San Jose State defense is having issues stopping anyone. I like this offense, but the defense needs to step up again as they did earlier in the season.
San Diego State at Wyoming (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a good game all the way through and wasn't even that sloppy. Danny O'Neil is getting better by the week for the Aztecs.
Old Dominion at Georgia State (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was Eastern Michigan that I couldn't pick last year. This year it's a toss-up between Stanford and Old Dominion.
Akron at Western Michigan (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bitten by another half. Akron looked good in the first third of the game. 24 second-quarter points for the Broncos spelled doom for the Zips.
Northern Illinois at Bowling Green (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The NIU defense continues to impress me. The offense is hit-and-miss.
Memphis (-7.5) vs. South Florida at Orlando: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulls aren't nearly as explosive without Byrum Brown.
Arizona at (14) BYU (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That BYU defense might be the best in a conference full of good ones. They are opportunistic and turn turnovers directly into scores.
2024 BYU is like 2022 TCU but instead of knocking out every QB they play, they are scoring on turnover worthy plays and have freak turnovers go their way. It’s honestly kind of wild.
— scottwildcat (@scottwildcat) October 12, 2024
Ohio (-2.5) at Central Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Another game under a three-point spread in which I picked the winner but missed the spread. What's with these teams winning by two points? What's with Ohio shutting out the Chips in the first half and then getting blasted in the fourth quarter? So frustrating...
Mississippi State at (5) Georgia (-33.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Michael Van Buren Jr. might be that dude. His first two career starts as a freshman were at Texas and at Georgia. Not only that, but he didn't lose his cool when given the ultimate form of disrespect by Kirby Smart.
— Dayne Young (@dayneyoung) October 12, 2024
Not only was there no flag on that but Smart was given a slap on the wrist by the SEC because...it's Georgia. I used to give Smart the benefit of the doubt, but it's hard to believe that a good person would shove anyone like that. This kind of thing should be unacceptable. Bo Pelini was fired for less.
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana-Monroe (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm telling you right now: the Warhawks are good enough to win the Fun Belt. Their only loss is to Texas and they already beat James Madison.
Florida at (8) Tennessee (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I think the trend would have continued if Graham Mertz wouldn't have gotten hurt. He was playing his best game of the season and one of the best of his career when he went down. DJ Lagway looked pretty good, but Florida needed Mertz down the stretch.
Air Force at New Mexico (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Air Force has allowed 76 points in the last two games. That's unheard of in Colorado Springs. The last time that happened was in October of 2018.
Washington State (-3.5) at Fresno State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This game was still closer than I thought it would be.
Arkansas State at Texas State (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Texas State - Louisiana-Monroe tilt on November 9 is going to be something!
North Texas (-5.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It wasn't an outright win, but I needed this. Cam Fancher is looking really good for the Owls.
UTSA (-3.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
E.J. Warner is steering Rice in the right direction and UTSA still can't run the ball.
(2) Ohio State (-3.5) at (3) Oregon: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Dan Lanning truly did take that penalty on purpose, he's playing chess while the rest of us are playing Twister. The man so broke the system that the NCAA took swift action. Those slow-playing bozos NEVER do anything in a timely manner.
So Oregon exploits a loophole one time & the NCAA makes a rule change within 4 days, but teams have been faking injuring against Tennessee (& other schools with fast tempo offenses) for 4 years & the NCAA has done nothing. Got it.
— Lace✨ (@lace_jay_bee) October 17, 2024
So...did the best team win? The best quarterback did. That was an uncharacteristic lapse by Will Howard, but Dillon Gabriel did outplay him. This was the game that we had all been waiting for from Evan Stewart.
Evan Stewart vs Ohio St secondary. pic.twitter.com/Q2r7TkQDbq
— ☘️LegalizeQuack☘️ (@Legalize_Quack) October 14, 2024
(9) Mississippi (-3.5) at (13) LSU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was everything we wanted in a Death Valley night game. Well...everyone by Lane Kiffin.
Oregon State (-3.5) at Nevada: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nevada finally put everything together in this game. I knew they were capable of this after they pushed SMU in Week 0. It just took it a bit to come to fruition.
Savion Red’s fourth TD! pic.twitter.com/vZ46JLiFtg
— Nevada Sports Net (@NevadaSportsNet) October 13, 2024
Appalachian State at Louisiana (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I got this one exactly right. Because of that hook.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A small bet on Vanderbilt outright helped me turn a profit on Saturday. Diego Pavia not only has his team believing, but the fans are as well. Hard to believe that this team lost to Georgia State, huh?
(11) Iowa State (-3.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Cyclones might be the most complete team outside of the Big Ten (18) and SEC. They do everything right and everything well.
Syracuse (-3.5) at North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Syracuse has some really good receivers. It's amazing how they shine when the Orange went and got a quarterback who can throw the ball.
Marshall (-1.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It took a furious fourth quarter in which the Eagles scored 21 of their 24 points to steal this from the Herd. How's this for a game-winner?
ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!!!!
DERWIN. BURGESS. JR. #HailSouthern | @derwinnn2 pic.twitter.com/Jsy2Id68a8
— Georgia Southern Football (@GSAthletics_FB) October 13, 2024
Minnesota (-3.5) at UCLA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm telling you right now that UCLA is close. They still made a few key mistakes in this second half, but Deshaun Foster, Eric Bieniemy, and the players are coalescing into something that might be special next year. I wouldn't be shocked if UCLA made a run to a bowl game. Their toughest remaining game is a November trip to Lincoln.
(18) Kansas State (-3.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado played most of this game without Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. and still almost won. This was one of the more impressive games from Shedeur Sanders. Still, Colorado's lack of a run game is a giant problem.
(17) Boise State (-20.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The last couple of halves were good to me. Ashton Jeanty actually got to play some in the fourth quarter here, so you know his stat line was ridiculous.
Through six games, Ashton Jeanty is currently on pace to break Barry Sanders' single-season FBS rushing yard record ?
Will we have a new record holder by the end of the season?@BroncoSportsFB | @AshtonJeanty2 pic.twitter.com/g3tdXLb3jt
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 13, 2024
Do you want to know what the craziest part about all of this is? Even if Jeanty breaks the record of Barry Sanders, he still won't win the Heisman.
College Football Betting Season Results
I finished a touch under .500 this week at 25 and 27, but betting on the right games still won me money. I missed most of my one-point bets, which is the way it's supposed to be. I'm a solid 183-161 on the season. That's 53.2% at the halfway point of the season. I'm right on track!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-5 (21-22) = -1
2. 10-9 (77-61) = 32
3. 6-11 (48-54) = -18
4. 6-2 (26-13) = 52
5. 2-0 (12-13) = -5
I won nine points this week to put me at 60 betting points on the season. I'm happy with that. I've only had one bad week. Let's keep it that way in Week 8!
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