RADIO
We had the return of Tuesday and Wednesday college football this week and I love it! Those picks were released on Twitter since there isn't much sense in writing an article for one pick. We have a busy Thursday and Friday again this week, which I also love. There is no better time to be a college football fan than in October when we have games five days a week!
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year, but there is still a lot of season left. We'll recap how Week 6 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 7.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 10, and Friday, October 11
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Coastal Carolina at James Madison (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game is in Harrisonburg, so the Dukes should bounce back.
Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
MTSU is 0-4 against the spread against FBS teams this year. I don't care how bad La Tech has looked. A full week with Evan Bullock practicing with the starters should make the difference. I'm taking the Bulldogs.
UTEP at Western Kentucky (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I like nothing about this line, but I like UTEP less. Give me the Hilltoppers, but I'm leaving this alone.
Northwestern at Maryland (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Northwestern defense is solid, but the offense doesn't keep the ball long enough to keep the defense rested. I'll take the Turtles.
UNLV (-18.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The luster has worn off of UNLV since the loss to the Orange a week ago, but Utah State only stayed within 30 of Boise because Ashton Jeanty didn't play in the second half. I'll take the Rebels.
(16) Utah (-4.5) at Arizona State *UPDATE
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cam Rising is confirmed as the starter, so I'm flipping to Utah and upping the wager. I'm comfortable with this for anything under a touchdown, but some books, particularly online ones, haven't updated odds yet. Grab it for 5 or 6 if you can!
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Texas State (-13.5) at Troy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy hung around for a little while, but it was very clear who the best team on the field was.
Sam Houston (-10.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cade McConnell looked better in his second starting stint for the Miners, but the defense couldn't stop Sam Houston's run game.
Jacksonville State (-16.5) at Kennesaw State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Thank you to Kennesaw State for hosting the Tyler Huff coming-out party.
Tyler Huff finds the end zone AGAIN! @JaxStateFB pic.twitter.com/h9KiSzY89O
— CBS Sports College Football ? (@CBSSportsCFB) October 5, 2024
Houston at TCU (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Donovan Smith era is over at Houston (as it should be). Zeon Chriss was the better quarterback in camp according to some reports. He proved it here. Chriss led Houston to 30 points after being shut out in back-to-back games. That's plenty of points for a defense like Houston's.
Michigan State at (6) Oregon (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Again Oregon dominated. Again they didn't cover. I see a pattern here.
Syracuse at (25) UNLV (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, what a game. UNLV had every chance to win this game, but the defense was gassed and let this one slip away. This was a hell of a run by LeQuint Allen to win it.
LeQuint Allen today for Syracuse to upset #25 UNLV:
71 Rushing Yards
58 Receiving Yards
4 Total Touchdowns
Overtime Game-WinnerCan’t forget to mention that Allen broke a tackle on 4th & 1 late in the 4th QT that would later help his team force OT. pic.twitter.com/ONQlgCEfW0
— Coach SA (@castlehill814) October 5, 2024
UCLA at (7) Penn State (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Penn State offense was doing Penn State things again. That's not a good thing. They didn't even score 28 points. UCLA is improving little by little.
(9) Missouri at (25) Texas A&M (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ahh...the evils of picking an untested high-ranked team. I knew that Missouri hadn't captured the magic of 2023 in the 2024 version of this team, but I let it cloud my judgment nonetheless.
SMU at (22) Louisville (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There was a Preston Stone sighting in the first quarter when Kevin Jennings briefly left the game. He threw a touchdown because...of course, he would. Jennings did finish the game so the quarterback competition hasn't been reopened. This had to make the SMU staff feel good though.
Purdue at Wisconsin (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The score doesn't show it, but Purdue's offense was better than in previous games. This is what Wisconsin is capable of when they run into a bad team. The run-and-shoot is taking shape in Madison anchored by a power run game.
These teams have played 83 times, but this was the largest margin of victory by either side (46 points). Wisconsin has punished Purdue in 18 consecutive meetings. Even Ohio State doesn't have that dominance over the Boilermakers.
Massachusetts at Northern Illinois (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I was sweating this in the fourth quarter once UMass ran out of gas. NIU scored 21 fourth-quarter points to finally pull away.
Boston College at Virginia (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Anthony Colandrea and the Wahoos came out swinging in the second half. The Virginia defense shut out Boston College. Virginia scored 24 unanswered to pull away.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at North Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Rodney Hammond Jr. had a very minor role in his return. Pitt ran the ball fairly well, but Eli Holstein took over the game for Pitt.
That is Pitt’s 1st win at North Carolina. Ever. Ei Holstein is the best Pitt QB since Marino. Kade Bell is an offensive mastermind. Also 5-0 against the spread. $$. Look out top 25. Here come the Panthers. pic.twitter.com/UudsY4FjQh
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) October 5, 2024
Pitt's 5-0 start since is the first since 1991. To think that Eli Holstein left Alabama for a program with a better record. That's college football in 2024.
Wake Forest at North Carolina State (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
To be fair, the Wolfpack were kind of a mess even with Grayson McCall. Now they are undeniably worse. They'll be lucky to make a bowl game. Wake may be on to something with Demond Claiborne.
Navy (-9.5) at Air Force: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This shouldn't have been a shock to anyone, but the 27-point victory for the Middies is their largest win over Air Force since 1978. Blake Horvath might be more machine than human.
Undefeated @NavyFB should be no lower than No. 20 this week. They’re 5-0 with a win over Memphis (3-1, beat FSU) and the Midshipmen are a steamroller on offense.
QB Blake Horvath (17 TDs) has the team cooking on the ground and in the air. When’s the last time Navy averaged 40+? pic.twitter.com/a1dR736aDR
— Casey Weldon (@TheWallyWeldon) October 6, 2024
Army (-8.5) at Tulsa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Army is 5-0 for the first time since 1996 and Army and Navy are both 5-0 for the first time since 1945. That CIC Trophy is going to be lit this year!
Tulane (-16.5) at UAB: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow...the score is misleading if you can believe that. UAB scored 16 of their 20 points in the fourth quarter. That's two garbage-time touchdowns to bring the final tally to a 51-point loss. Congrats, UAB!
Western Michigan (-9.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jaden Nixon did have a big game, but that Western Michigan defense was brutally bad. The Broncos did come out with a win, but they tried not to...
Iowa at (3) Ohio State (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can laugh if you want, but the Buckeyes scoring 35 on Iowa is like scoring 60 on a normal team. Iowa's offense is still terrible. At least that's an improvement over the generationally bad tag of last year.
Auburn at (5) Georgia (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Georgia controlled the game and still didn't cover. That's why I hate lines like that.
(12) Mississippi (-9.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Now might be the time to have that uncomfortable conversation about why Robby Ashford should be starting at quarterback for the Gamecocks.
(23) Indiana (-13.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Northwestern's little palace by the lake will become an ice palace rather soon. Indiana is 6-0 for the first time since 1967. That's right kids, not even Michael Penix Jr. led the Hoosiers to a 6-0 start.
Temple at Connecticut (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you’re watching Vandy and Bama, you likely just missed the end of Temple @ UConn… pic.twitter.com/t5k8oMuVJm
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) October 5, 2024
UConn scored a touchdown on the last play of the game by returning a fumble for a touchdown. This game was a lot closer than the score indicated.
Virginia Tech (-8.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kyron Drones had a solid game, but the Hokie defense was the story of this one.
Appalachian State at Marshall (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Braylon Braxton ran free on the App State defense. This game was never really that close.
Miami (OH) at Toledo (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The four-headed running back situation still takes some getting used to, but it's working well for the Rockets this year.
Bowling Green (-15.5) at Akron: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Harold Fannin had a big game, but Akron still hung around for the entire game.
East Carolina (-8.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Remember the name Hahsaun Wilson. He might be the starting running back at Duke or North Carolina State next year when he transfers out of Charlotte. He trampled the Pirates in this one.
Rutgers at Nebraska (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I expected a defensive battle and I got one. Had I known this game was going to be played with swirling winds, I probably would have bet on Nebraska knowing neither team would chance a field goal.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Neither quarterback was good and Oklahoma State couldn't stop anything. This game was out of hand even before Ollie Gordon II went down for the Pokes.
(1) Alabama (-22.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not even mad that I missed this. We got to see history! This was Vanderbilt's first-ever win over a top 5 team, let alone a top-ranked team. This was the first game since November 9, 2019, against LSU in which the Tide never led. The thing of it is...Alabama didn't even play a bad game.
Vanderbilt controlled the ball for much of the game and their efficiency on third down led to this. It was a sight that Nashville won't soon forget. How crazy was it? Even Nashville Predators coach Andrew Brunette helped in the celebration.
Nashville Predators coach Andrew Brunette described helping Vanderbilt fans with the goalposts Saturday after the Commodores' upset win over Alabama. https://t.co/bcv8sqCWpq
— Commercial Appeal (@memphisnews) October 7, 2024
By the time the partying was over on Broadway...by the way...can you imagine not being a football fan, just taking in the atmosphere on Broadway in Nashville and all of a sudden thousands of college students are coming your way carrying goalposts? That was what happened in Nashville.
Video submitted via a Vanderbilt fan on Instagram. What a night in Nashville, TN.
Zero percent chance the goal post was ending up anywhere other than the bottom of the Cumberland River after the Dores’ win over Alabama. pic.twitter.com/NdpdLxFCSY
— SEC Unfiltered (@SECUnfiltered) October 7, 2024
Being the good capitalists we are, the university sent people to fish out the goalposts, cut them up, and sold pieces of the historic victory to cover the cost of the SEC fine (beyond stupid) and NIL contracts (smart). Live it up, Vandy fans. You've earned it. And buy a beer for Diego Pavia from me next time you see him.
The expanded 12-team playoff doesn't cheapen the win for Vanderbilt, but it does cheapen the loss for Alabama. A loss to the Commodores might have kept the Tide out of a four-team playoff. Now they'll just be seeded worse.
Colorado State at Oregon State (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a spirited game by the Rams, but Oregon State wore them down by the time the second overtime came around. That defense was gassed.
(15) Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Florida State still couldn't stop the run, but they did look a little better in pass defense. That's progress, right? RIGHT? The Nightmare Before Christmas continues in Tallahassee.
Utah State at (21) Boise State (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ashton Jeanty only played one half in this blowout and still had 186 yards and three touchdowns.
Ashton Jeanty in 16 quarters of football:
1031 yards
16 touchdownsWe are not worthy pic.twitter.com/rJGQxnNKFo
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 6, 2024
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Turnovers doomed the Monarchs.
South Alabama (-2.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Kids, this is why we don't bet on Sun Belt games. South Alabama looked better in every facet of the game and still lost.
James Madison (-16.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The fumble return for a touchdown wound up being huge in this game. Don't look now, but Monroe is 4-1 and leading the Fun Belt. Their only loss is to Texas. Maybe we need to discuss how good the Warhawks are...
Louisiana (-16.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Sun Belt was not kind to me this week. Louisiana controlled this game and still didn't cover.
(4) Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tennessee had a lot of chances to win this game. They really did. Andrew Armstrong is a difference-maker and that Arkansas defense is no slouch. Lost in this victory is the fact that Arkansas won the game with a backup quarterback. Taylen Green tried to return but was forced to leave again.
The Arkansas security pulled down the goalposts before the fans had a chance to and are selling them off for NIL money and the fine for the fans storming the field. The SEC is a bunch of fun killers.
?: Arkansas Defense Vs #4 Tennessee
Interesting Note:
This was the 1st time under Josh Heupel that the Vols Offense had been held under a 100 YD in a Half(they had just 51 YD & *0 PTs in the 1st Half)*Also the 1st time in Josh Heupel’s Career as a HC that he had been held… pic.twitter.com/90THvIwnMr
— Rabid Razorback Fans (@Rabid_Razorback) October 9, 2024
(10) Michigan at Washington (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Well...one team did win by double figures. Michigan's defense was M.I.A. in the fourth quarter.
(11) USC (-8.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The USC defense is regressing again and Miller Moss is making mistakes. The empire of Troy is crumbling. There was controversy at the end of this one as well, but the officials got it right. All Max Brosmer had to do was break the plane of the goal line. At that point, it's a touchdown and the play is dead. That happened with the first push.
Minnesota upsets 11 USC pic.twitter.com/nGfTSxAC7D
— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) October 6, 2024
Baylor at (16) Iowa State (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Of course, Baylor's comebacks end when I pick them. Iowa State took control of this game halfway through the second quarter and never looked back.
Nevada at San Jose State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was easily the best game that Nevada has played all year. SJSU gets the win to stay atop the Mountain West, but it cost me because they didn't cover.
Central Florida (-2.5) at Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The UCF defense held tough in the second half, but the offense still couldn't crack that Florida defense.
Duke at Georgia Tech (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Wreck wrecked Maalik Murphy in this one. Duke's defense couldn't hold anything in the fourth quarter to let the cover slip away.
Kansas at Arizona State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This one stings a little more than usual for Kansas since Jalon Daniels played his best game of the season. Cam Skattebo couldn't be stopped. 35 of the 66 points in this game were scored in the fourth quarter.
Hawaii at San Diego State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I needed this after missing a dozen in a row...
(8) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Another game, another controversial win in a game that Miami should have lost. I used to think the Hurricanes were the class of the ACC. Now I'm not sure.
Targeting…If the player leaves their feet to launch at an opponent
If the player leads with their helmet to attack with forcible contact the head or neck area of an opposing player
If the player makes forcible contact with the crown of the helmet#MiamiVsCal pic.twitter.com/g0LZw3eNp3
— Roscoe (@RoscoeReport) October 6, 2024
This is a tough one. That said, the quarterback in this situation is not a defenseless player. The Miami player may have led with the helmet but made contact with the shoulder. Did he leave his feet? Just barely, but yes.
This is not helmet-to-helmet contact, so I am okay with it. The targeting rule has evolved a lot since its inception. It now explicitly says that ALL indicators must be present. This call, while a big hit, was legal.
The more egregious call was Miami not being called for an ineligible man downfield on the final touchdown. I think those calls are dumb anyway, but the referees LOVE them. The center was in the end zone and the ball was snapped from the five-yard line.
Season saving touchdown from Miami?! pic.twitter.com/8svPrz5KXY
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 6, 2024
Texas Tech at Arizona (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey! I want a refund! This is not the Arizona team that we were promised in the preseason!
College Football Betting Season Results
It was bound to happen at some point, but this was one of my worst weeks ever. It's my second worst all-time at 17-32. I missed 14 of the last 15 picks in an effort of futility that I hope is never duplicated again.
I'm still a solid 152-134 on the season, but this hurts, especially in the pocketbook. Let's assess the damage. Ignoring it won't make it go away.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-2 (20-17) = 3
2. 8-12 (67-52) = 30
3. 2-12 (42-43) = -3
4. 4-3 (20-11) = 36
5. 2-3 (10-13) = -15
I lost 40 points on the week, but am still up 51 points overall. Considering all of the upsets that happened, I suppose it's natural to come out behind. This is a tougher week coming up in Week 7 and our largest week of the season. Let's win some back!
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