RADIO
This week was a little larger, but we had cupcake week in the SEC. This week the ACC partakes, but we still have our largest week of games in nearly two months this week. Most of those games are on Saturday. With MACtion taking up five of the nine mid-week games this week, that doesn't leave much for Thursday and Friday, but they are good ones!
We will also look back at last week. There is no way it was as bad as Week 11, right? RIGHT? It would be hard to be that bad again. I have a hole to dig myself out of. The saga continues.
I finished at 49.31% last year and am aiming for 51% this year. Last week put me under .500 for the first time this year, but it's not an insurmountable catastrophe just yet.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, November 21, and Friday, November 22
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
North Carolina State at Georgia Tech (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The return of Haynes King has Georgia Tech looking like the team they were in September. I'll take the Bees at home.
Temple at UTSA (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Temple is terrible. Meep meep!
Purdue at Michigan State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If it were any team other than Purdue, I wouldn't believe it. I have a hard time believing it now. I'm leaving this one alone. Both teams are so bad that I can't see either one winning by double figures. I guess that means I'm taking Purdue.
(24) UNLV (-7.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the half, but I still like UNLV. I'll just lower the bet.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Ball State at Buffalo (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Man, this was a fun game! We need mid-week MACtion all year round, not just in November. Come on, ESPN! Make it happen!
Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Of course, if Western Michigan had used Jaden Nixon as he should be used, they may have stayed closer...
Central Michigan at Toledo (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Turnovers destroyed the Chips...and my bet.
Kent State at Miami (OH) (-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Miami did score 31 points. Unfortunately, Kent scored a touchdown (and actually led a game for the first time this season).
Akron at Northern Illinois (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's nice to see Ben Finley have some success.
Eastern Michigan at Ohio (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How did Ohio lose Kurtis Rourke and Sieh Bangura and get better...without the benefit of players transferring in? Good coaching, that's how. Parker Navarro could make some Power 4 team happy next year.
East Carolina (-14.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
ECU couldn't cover Joseph Williams. What has gotten into Tulsa?
Wyoming at Colorado State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was afraid the Rams might trample Wyoming on the ground, and they did.
North Texas (-1.5) at UTSA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is what I expected from UTSA earlier this year. They have another good lefty in Owen McCown.
To put Owen McCown’s sophomore season into perspective. He’s #3 in attempts (382), #4 in completions (234) and #3 in passing yards (2,743). With two regular season games left. pic.twitter.com/a0dxUT939S
— Javi Cardenas (@RivalsJavi) November 18, 2024
UCLA at Washington (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Somehow Washington is still unbeatable at home (Washington State beat them at Lumen Field, not Husky Stadium, in the Apple Cup). That information might come in handy later.
Houston at Arizona (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm hoping Arizona wins out and makes a bowl. Just like Kansas, they are finally turning into the team we knew they could be. Both the Jayhawks and Wildcats need to run the table.
(2) Ohio State (-28.5) vs. Northwestern at Chicago: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Buckeyes started slow, and had no interest in covering this. The game was never in question though.
(3) Texas (-12.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas managed to let Arkansas back into this one.
Utah at (17) Colorado (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm glad I upped the bet on this. I needed it. Colorado scoring 49 points on Utah is quite an achievement. This is a team peaking at the right time.
(20) Clemson (-11.5) at Pittsburgh: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Nate Yarnell played his best collegiate game. It took an unlikely touchdown run by Cade Klubnik late in the game for Clemson to win this.
(25) Tulane (-6.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was Tulane's first shutout against an FBS opponent since 1997. That's Shaun King territory!
Liberty (-14.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UMass fell by one point in overtime. I can see where this week is going already...
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How about that La Tech defense? Holding Western Kentucky to just seven points is no easy task.
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It doesn't matter how Payton Thorne throws if Cam Coleman is going to make catches like this.
brb watching @CamColeman12 highlights ?
FIRST freshman in program history with 3️⃣ receiving touchdowns in a game ? pic.twitter.com/40Ekot726y
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) November 18, 2024
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Can you imagine where Marshall would be if they still had Rasheen Ali? It's weird seeing Marshall struggle to run the ball.
Florida International at Jacksonville State (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. This was a hell of a game. Tre Stewart came through big for Jacksonville State again.
Florida Atlantic at Temple (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FAU gave up nine points in the fourth, then lost by a field goal in overtime. Of course, they did!
Michigan State at Illinois (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Easy money.
Syracuse at California (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A huge second quarter for the Orange doomed Cal.
Sam Houston (-16.5) at Kennesaw State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kennesaw pushed the Bearkats to overtime. I could see that happening under Brian Bohannon too. This was a lateral move at best for Kennesaw.
Hawaii (-2.5) at Utah State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The real Hawaii showed up in Logan. This was a massive win for an Aggies team that needed it.
(4) Penn State (-28.5) at Purdue: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Purdue has seen some dark years since Drew Brees left, but this might be the worst.
Virginia at (8) Notre Dame (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's a good thing Notre Dame let up. The Hoos were scoreless at the half.
Boston College at (14) SMU (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kevin Jennings keeps getting better. That's bad news for the rest of the ACC that wants to box SMU out of the conference championship game.
(19) Louisville (-20.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Louisville fell apart in the fourth quarter and managed to lose outright. Ashton Daniels might have had his best collegiate game and Emmett Mosley V showed up big in this one.
(22) LSU (-3.5) at Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's what you get for importing a tiger from Florida. Welcome to Curse City, population LSU. Those calling for Billy Napier's head were wrong. This team has a lot of young talent that Napier brought there.
Oregon State (-3.5) at Air Force: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I didn't think Air Force was capable of a game like this in 2024. The Beavers got shut out and need to win the Pac 2 title to make a bowl.
South Florida (-2.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulls won this without Byrum Brown and still ran for 425 yards. Impressive!
Nebraska at USC (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm mad about this one because the officials cost Nebraska a chance to win the game and blew my cover. This is the last play of the game and one of the most obvious missed cases of pass interference I've seen outside of NFL circles.
This apparently isn't pass interference in the @bigten ... at least when you are Nebraska trying to tie it with a pass on the final play on the road at USC and your WR never had a chance to try to get back to the football to corral it.
That side judge/back judge combo literally… pic.twitter.com/URM49mwXoz— Scott Puryear (@scottpuryear) November 17, 2024
Allow me to wax poetic about my conspiracy theory. Officiating in the college game has been overall solid for the last five years. Until this year. This year it is arguably worse than the NFL and almost every egregious missed call has affected the outcome of the game. Why is that? I'll tell you why.
This is a precursor to college football wanting to use replay on penalties in the last two minutes of the game and the half. It's hard to believe that all of a sudden, officials just SUCK.
I rarely feel bad for Nebraska fans, but I do here. This is the kind of thing that will ruin the game before the mega conferences and the expanded playoff do. It's a tight race right now... And those damn zebras killed my bet. Yes, I'm salty.
Baylor (-1.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the most fun I've had watching Baylor since Robert Griffin III was there (and that dude should be in the booth somewhere. It's a travesty that he isn't). Bryson Washington is incredibly talented. If you haven't seen him play yet, watch the Baylor game this weekend.
Like this if you love Bryson Washington.
RT this if you love Bryson Washington.
Reply that you love Bryson Washington.#SicEm | @Brysonwash15 pic.twitter.com/UGVWDO6PWP— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) November 17, 2024
Troy at Georgia Southern (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
...or not. Way to blow this, GSU.
James Madison (-2.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a fun one. The Royal Rivalry brought entertainment that only the Fun Belt can provide.
(23) Missouri at (21) South Carolina (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Carolina came very close to blowing this...but they're still the best three-loss team in the country.
Arkansas State at Georgia State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Where did that come from?
Rutgers at Maryland (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Easy money. I hammered the Rutgers money line, which made Week 12 my most profitable of the season on its own. This was the most out-of-whack line I've seen in a while.
(13) Boise State (-14.5) at San Jose State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boise kept the Ashton Jeanty train rolling into the fourth quarter. That sealed the cover.
Arizona State at (16) Kansas State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas State usually doesn't get spun out like this, especially at home. Meanwhile, Arizona State now controls their destiny for a berth in the Big 12 (16) title game.
South Alabama at Louisiana (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was right to be nervous about this. The Jags are hard to read this year, but still fun to watch.
Southern Mississippi at Texas State (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's Jordan McCloud! We've missed you (even though you haven't been injured).
(1) Oregon (-13.5) at Wisconsin: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wisconsin played their best game of the season. For the first time since mid-September, Oregon looked beatable.
(7) Tennessee at (12) Georgia (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tennessee came out swinging but got shut out in the second half by the Georgia defense.
New Mexico State at (15) Texas A&M (-38.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
A&M dominated this entire game and still didn't cover. They didn't even score 39 points.
Wake Forest at North Carolina (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Omarion Hampton is a McClaren. The Tar Heels are a used car lot.
Cincinnati at Iowa State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's the Iowa State team I'm used to watching.
UAB at Memphis (-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Memphis scored four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to cover this.
(18) Washington State (-10.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win from New Mexico, but I'm not that surprised either. Washington State has been living dangerously for a while now.
LOBOS PULL OFF THE UPSET ?
New Mexico picks up its first win vs a Top 25 opponent since 2003 after defeating No. 18 Washington State ? pic.twitter.com/fz1m76mW82
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 17, 2024
Kansas at (6) BYU (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have listened to my intuition.
San Diego State at UNLV (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UNLV ended up barely covering. It was another one of those weeks.
College Football Betting Season Results
I was better than last week, but that's not saying much. I failed with the one-point picks (as I should) and the two-pointers weren't kind with the halves. I went a disappointing 24-29 and am now 300-312 on the season. I need a strong end to the season!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-4 (29-36) = -7
2. 10-13 (132-114) = 36
3. 9-7 (83-104) = -63
4. 2-3 (38-33) = 20
5. 2-2 (19-25) = -30
I only lost seven points this week, but coupled with the rest of the season's losses, I'm now down 44 points. I have a little bit of time to make it up.
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