RADIO
Last week was our smallest week in a while. We are ramping back up this week with MACtion taking over the early week and C-USA and the Fun Belt heading back to Saturdays. It's going to be a busy last month of the season.
I have a feeling that I didn't fare all that well this week either. Iowa State, my pick to win the Big 12 (14), and fallen apart and I keep betting on them.
I finished at 49.31% last year and am aiming for 51% this year. Last week hurt the bottom line, but I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year, but there is still a lot of season left. We'll recap how Week 11 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 12.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, November 14, and Friday, November 15
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
East Carolina (-14.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is up a field goal in the last 24 hours or so. Vegas is finally coming around. It was too low at -11 and is still too low. ECU rolls!
Wyoming at Colorado State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cowboys are much better with Kaden Anderson at quarterback. I'll take them to not get covered.
North Texas (-1.5) at UTSA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This should be a good one and it should be a DFS gold mine. There are going to be a lot of points scored. I still like UTSA at home.
UCLA at Washington (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
UCLA is playing very well right now and the bettors still aren't following. I am. UCLA outright!
Houston at Arizona (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Zeon Chriss has made a huge difference for Houston and the defense is starting to come around. I've lost so much on Arizona this year. I'm going with Houston, but I have little confidence in it.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Bowling Green (-10.5) at Central Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Snakebitten by the hook on the first pick of the week. That's not ominous at all...
Miami (OH) (-9.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Was that defense I saw from Ball State? Justin Bowick is the best receiver in the MAC, and it's not particularly close.
How did Justin Bowick catch that!? ?@BallStateFB | #MACtion | #ChirpChirp pic.twitter.com/TlMsuE8Exw
— #MACtion (@MACSports) November 13, 2024
Ohio (-17.5) at Kent State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should get extra points since Ohio covered the 27.5 that I mentioned. I think I'm going to need them.
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Telly Johnson Jr. took over for the injured Antario Brown in the first quarter and might have been better than the incumbent.
Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
App State outplayed Coastal overall, but CCU did the most with their opportunities.
Florida Atlantic at East Carolina (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pirates are a different team under Katin Houser.
California (-7.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fernando Mania is taking over the Bay Area again this year after a slow start.
Iowa (-5.5) at UCLA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The UCLA defense did a great job on Kaleb Johnson and picked off Brendan Sullivan twice. UCLA can still make a bowl, which is quite impressive after their horrible start to 2024.
Rice at Memphis (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Rice played tough, but once again came up just short.
New Mexico at San Diego State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Lobos gave SDSU every chance to win this game. San Diego State's inability to stop the run was a massive problem.
Purdue at (2) Ohio State (-37.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
He is a walking record book and this is only the beginning.
The new Ohio State record holder for freshman receiving TD’s, freshman receptions and freshman receiving yard.
Jeremiah Smith asked to hold the post game interview so he could go sing Carmen with the team: pic.twitter.com/1lO8NmCxID
— Adam King (@AdamKing10TV) November 9, 2024
Jeremiah Smith is already among the all-time Buckeye greats. Will Howard had his best game as a Buckeye. Ohio State may be peaking at the right time.
(4) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Howdy from Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. I’m in attendance for #4 Miami @ Georgia Tech and we all know what that means…
The curse
- Last time I witnessed a Canes Win? 756 days ago
- Witnessed 1 win in a span of 2,246 days pic.twitter.com/IWMdn19cx7— Hayden C. Bannick (@hcbannick_25) November 9, 2024
Curses are real, y'all. If Miami needs a scapegoat, I present this guy. Haynes King made a triumphant return and Georgia Tech stopped a Heisman-winning drive by Cam Ward after Miami got the ball back with just under two minutes left.
BREAKING NEWS: Georgia tech fans storm the field after an upset win against (what was) Undefeated Miami. #georgiatech #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/MUrtaHRCKN
— Dylan (@Dylanwx03) November 9, 2024
Goalposts on the move in Atlanta. Might make a trip around 285. pic.twitter.com/Y0Gw11bMBT
— Frank Sulkowski WJCL (@TheBigGuyWJCL) November 9, 2024
Florida at (5) Texas (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game was never in question. DJ Lagway makes a huge difference for Florida. In other news, Quinn Ewers might have had his best game (statistically) at Texas.
Minnesota (-6.5) at Rutgers: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Athan Kaliakmanis showed out against his former team ?#B1GFootball x @RFootball pic.twitter.com/YlexxWxqlL
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 9, 2024
I should have known that Athan Kaliakmanis was going to turn into Mike Teel against his former team...
Syracuse at Boston College (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I tout Syracuse, then they allow 198 rushing yards to Kye Robichaux. Figures...
West Virginia at Cincinnati (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincinnati's three big turnovers cost them the game.
Texas State (-7.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a statement by Texas State, even without Jordan McCloud for a lot of the game.
Navy (-3.5) at South Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have pushed the bet higher. I had a feeling that Byrum Brown wasn't going to play in this one.
Liberty (-10.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Flames blew this open in the second quarter and didn't look back.
Connecticut (-7.5) at UAB: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ugh...UConn scored 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to bust a 17-point UAB lead. This one hurts.
Marshall (-13.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have maxed this one out.
(3) Georgia (-2.5) at (16) Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
#16 Ole Miss upsets #3 Georgia! That’s the Rebels’ first win over the Bulldogs since September 24, 2016!
Also, prior to tonight, the last time Ole Miss won back to back home games vs UGA in Oxford, Mississippi? 1993/1995!#HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/Tr3GfdaaDk
— Brad (@StatsBrad) November 10, 2024
Ole Miss fans are carrying the goalpost through the streets of Oxford after beating Georgia.
???
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 10, 2024
The Ole Miss goal posts—or part of them—have arrived at Tango’s in downtown Oxford. pic.twitter.com/BKHxDhj35b
— Brent Cooper (@brentonhcooper) November 10, 2024
The daggum goalpost is headed to the Library pic.twitter.com/icZwndWNMu
— Red Cup Rebellion (@RedCupRebellion) November 10, 2024
They’ve got the goalpost on the Lafayette County Courthouse pic.twitter.com/dRb03GJDMU
— Sudu (@sudu_tv) November 10, 2024
The Ole Miss goalpost just hit FB marketplace pic.twitter.com/hWrPSNTdQg
— Brandon Michael Clark (@runthatBMC) November 10, 2024
The last time Mississippi beat a high-ranked team like this, the fans left them in the Dean's yard. This year they had an adventure in downtown Oxford and had to go to court. This is why the NFL will never be anywhere near college football.
As for the game, this was a dominant showing by the Land Shark defense. It puts a fire under Georgia in the playoff picture and gives a horde of SEC teams a shot at the automatic bid.
Michigan at (8) Indiana (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Indiana is 10-0 for the first time in school history, but this was a lot closer than it should have been. Indiana was in control for the first 45 minutes of the game.
(17) Iowa State (-2.5) vs. Kansas at Kansas City, MO: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Devin Neal enters the Kansas record books and the defense gives Iowa State a taste of its own medicine. When Jalon Daniels takes care of the ball, good things happen for Kansas. They need a miracle to make a bowl game, but are you really going to count Kansas out right now?
(23) Clemson (-6.5) at Virginia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
You have got to be kidding me Cade Klubnik. What an unbelievable effort. pic.twitter.com/9uQr7NwzzP
— Austin Pendergist (@apthirteen) November 9, 2024
That play took the wind out of the sails for the Hokies. After a dominant first half defensively, the Hokies still managed to lose the game.
(25) Army (-4.5) at North Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was my highest bet of the week. It made sure I didn't lose money, even though I may have lost points here.
Duke at North Carolina State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Maalik Murphy turning a corner? I feel like I asked this at some point last year as well and the answer was a resounding no.
San Jose State at Oregon State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Walker Eget piled up 395 passing yards and the Spartans played defense. I'm doomed.
Georgia State at James Madison (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I outsmarted myself and made my pick dumb. It was that kind of week.
(20) Colorado (-4.5) at Texas Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I ended up betting on Colorado, but didn't change my pick here. Vacation brain, I tell you...
Kennesaw State at UTEP (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took two overtimes for UTEP to steal my pick.
Temple at Tulane (-26.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How much do you want to bet that Kansas State is relieved that they don't have to play Tulane now? This offense has been outstanding for the last month or so.
South Carolina (-4.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better...
Jacksonville State (-9.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know...I can't even be mad about this. This game had everything. Tre Stewart had another huge game. Then Tru Edwards does this.
Oh, Tru Edwards my goodnesspic.twitter.com/4zE76ZNMZZ
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 9, 2024
The craziness wasn't done there. After trading body blows for the rest of the game, it came down to this for Jacksonville State.
A PRAYER ANSWERED @JaxStateFB TIES THE GAME WITH A HAIL MARY pic.twitter.com/0bTb78yzkK
— CBS Sports College Football ? (@CBSSportsCFB) November 10, 2024
That tied the game for Jacksonville. An extra point wins it...and they miss the extra point to send this to overtime. Jacksonville State ended up getting the win that they deserved, but they still didn't cover. Oh well. This was one of the best games that I've watched this season.
Arkansas State at Louisiana (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Someone please give Corey Rucker a decent NIL offer and rescue him from Jonesboro purgatory...
Western Kentucky (-18.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Once again, I underestimated how bad the Western Kentucky defense is.
Maryland at (1) Oregon (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Dillon Gabriel gets the Lifetime Achievement Award (aka the most career passing touchdowns) and Oregon still doesn't cover...
Mississippi State at (7) Tennessee (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tennessee finally scored more than 28 points, but they still didn't cover. I was nervous about this in the early going though. Tennessee started fast.
Central Florida at Arizona State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If only I hadn't come back and raised this bet when I learned that Cam Skattebo was out. This is a game that Central Florida had a dozen chances to win, but wouldn't take it.
Oklahoma State at TCU (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have been more confident in this one. Out of all of the coaches who are supposedly on the hot seat, I would bet that Mike Gundy gets fired before any of them. There is no excuse for a team this talented to be 3-7 after 10 games.
Florida State at (10) Notre Dame (-25.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Notre Dame continues to rack up the style points against far inferior opponents.
(11) Alabama (-2.5) at (14) LSU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
LSU brought a fake Mike the Tiger into Death Valley and the college football gods’ revenge was swift. pic.twitter.com/bICKXDA66b
— Robert Behrens (@rcb05) November 10, 2024
It was very uninspired football by LSU. That's all I can say. Alabama came in and destroyed them. That's what LSU gets for importing an out-of-state tiger to put on the sidelines. You don't disrespect Mike like that. If you're not willing to put Mike in the stadium, you don't do it at all. LSU got what it deserved.
Imagining what the out-of-state, bootleg tiger that LSU trots out for Alabama ends up looking like. pic.twitter.com/lwhgAN63CA
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 7, 2024
Oklahoma (-2.5) at (24) Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate this team and the morons that moved it to the SEC. Of all the ways that Oklahoma has lost games throughout the years, this was one of the worst...especially after we scored a defensive touchdown to go ahead with two minutes left in the game. I'm not okay...
Missouri now with a Scoop n Score!!!!!
What did I just see? This game is off the rails!#Mizzou #Oklahoma
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) November 10, 2024
Washington at (6) Penn State (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nick Saban ruined college football. Don't get me wrong...I think he's a good fit on College Gameday, but he started this. Saban leaves, Kalen DeBoer leaves for Alabama, and Jedd Fisch leaves for Washington. Washington and Arizona are destroyed. Alabama had two losses by the end of October for the first time in 15 years. This is armageddon, folks.
Nevada at (12) Boise State (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have known better. This is a spirited Nevada team. They could be really good next year.
Virginia at (18) Pittsburgh (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow...I have never seen a down replayed because an official "wasn't ready" before. The bad news for Pitt is that it was a fourth-down stop of the Hoos which would have given Pitt the ball back. Honestly, there's no excuse for this. ACC officials might just ruin the conference before Florida State does...
UNLV (-12.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I can't catch a break...
Fresno State (-10.5) at Air Force: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The seven-game skid is over for the Falcons. It's a new low for Fres-NO!
(9) BYU (-3.5) at Utah: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
BYU needed a miracle and got it. The undefeated season rolls on.
Utah State at (21) Washington State (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The hook went in my favor to close out one of my worst weeks ever.
College Football Betting Season Results
This was my worst week on record and there were only 50 games! I only got 18 out of the 50 picks to put me under .500 for the first time this season at 276-283. That's not so bad. The loss of points is, and that's where the worst week comes in.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-1 (28-32) = -4
2. 13-11 (122-101) = 42
3. 3-16 (74-97) = -69
4. 0-3 (36-30) = 24
5. 1-1 (17-23) = -30
I lost a total of 47 points this week, marking my third week this season that I've lost 40 or more points. I've come close to losing that many before, but never quite got there. I'm now 37 points in the red this year. I need a good week this week.
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