RADIO
Last week was our smallest week in a while. We are ramping back up this week with MACtion taking over the early week and C-USA and the Fun Belt heading back to Saturdays. It's going to be a busy last month of the season.
I started out poorly last week and I never quite recovered, having my worst week of the season. I think this week was reasonably better, but I haven't watched as many games as usual at this point of the season.
I finished at 49.31% last year and am aiming for 51% this year. Last week hurt the bottom line, but I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year, but there is still a lot of season left. We'll recap how Week 10 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 11.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, November 7, and Friday, November 8
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This opened with App State as the favorite and should have stayed that way. This team beat October juggernaut Old Dominion last week. Give me App State.
Florida Atlantic at East Carolina (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh man, I hate that hook. Not enough to take FAU, but enough to lower this bet significantly.
California (-7.5) at Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's a night game, so the whole West Coast team playing in the East doesn't really apply here. When Cal is at full strength, they're a tough team to beat. They are finally back to that point. I'll take Cal.
Iowa (-5.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Iowa has turned a corner with Brendan Sullivan at quarterback. UCLA has turned a corner with the same players and coaching staff and they're at home. I'm starting to believe. I'll take the Bruins.
Rice at Memphis (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels high considering Rice just bounced Navy after a lengthy weather delay. I'll take Rice, but I'm not messing with this one.
New Mexico at San Diego State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels relatively safe. Give me the Aztecs.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
New Mexico State at Florida International (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you bet on FIU, thank this man.
FIU wide receiver Eric Rivers WENT CRAZY vs New Mexico State tonight ??
11 RECEPTIONS
295 YARDS
3 TOUCHDOWNSHe set a program record for the most receiving yards in a single game ?@eyb_3
(via @FIUFootball @CBSSports) pic.twitter.com/twKTVehgPn
— LIGHT ON COLLEGE SPORTS (@LightOnSports) October 30, 2024
Louisiana at Texas State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's some good Cajun cookin' comin' from Lafayette, y'all. The Cajuns are 7-1 and 4-0 in the Fun Belt.
Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hunter Watson did play but was ineffective enough to let Jase Bauer come in and complete all four passes. The Bearkats didn't even score 10 points! They did still win the game, but there is a certified quarterback controversy in Huntsville now.
Jacksonville State at Liberty (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Those of you still betting on Liberty as if they are a carbon copy of the 2023 team, stop! You're losing money! The Flames are not that team this year.
Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A convincing win for the Hilltoppers, but they still didn't cover.
Tulane (-16.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Makhi Hughes is only a sophomore. If Tulane can get him to hang around, he could be the guy who changes the program.
Georgia State at Connecticut (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was right. UConn didn't cover by that half.
South Florida (-2.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bulls meant business, but that still doesn't mean that Byrum Brown should be in danger of losing his job. It was a strong game for Bryce Archie, but his lack of a deep arm will limit this offense against good defenses.
San Diego State at (15) Boise State (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Give Ashton Jeanty the Heisman Trophy:
- 271 yds, 6 TD
- 200 yds, 3 TD
- 127 yds, 0 TD
- 266 yds, 4 TD
- 186 yds, 3 TD
- 237 yds, 2 TD
- 139 yds, 1 TD
- 180 yds, 2 TDBest college running back since Barry Sanders.
Ashton Jeanty didn't even play in the second half of two games. pic.twitter.com/fjulRNnSkS
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 3, 2024
Just another workmanlike performance from the greatest player to ever wear Bronco blue.
(4) Ohio State (-3.5) at (3) Penn State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Another massive goal line stand by the Ohio State defense preserves another win. Will Howard showed some jitters early but ultimately proved that he was the best quarterback on the field. Everything went right for Penn State except for Drew Allar. The Penn State defense was still solid.
Maybe don’t go 1-14 against Top 5 teams, and you wouldn’t have to verbally go after fans from the school you coach at. Then you wonder why James Franklin gets the reputation for being unlikable pic.twitter.com/8zjgXqsEOX
— Jason Shetler (@Jason_Shetler) November 2, 2024
If a school keeps firing schemers, play-callers, and coordinators yet the problem still doesn't disappear, the head coach is the problem. Penn State is reluctant to say that, but most college football fans know the truth. James Franklin can build a good team but can't win the big one. 1-14 is not a fluky streak or just some bad luck. He's the problem. Period.
Duke at (5) Miami (FL) (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duke looked like they were going to hang tough until the end, but Miami smashed them in the fourth quarter. It was just last year that the Hurricanes had trouble closing out games. Yes, Cam Ward makes the difference.
(19) Mississippi (-7.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Taylen Green injury hurt, but Malachi Singleton had better numbers than Green. Both had very good games. The issue was the Arkansas defense and the inability of the offense to run the football. This one got out of hand quickly in the second quarter because of this guy.
Jordan Watkins brought the BOOM ?@jordantwatkins | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/ZNBWtiFd4U
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 3, 2024
Air Force at (21) Army (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Bryson Daily didn't play, and Army still almost got the cover. My pick was right on if Daily had played.
Minnesota (-2.5) at (24) Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a nice game by Minnesota on both sides of the ball.
Northwestern at Purdue (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Northwestern still owns Purdue. This one is going to sting for a while.
Stanford at North Carolina State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh, snap! I see you, CJ Bailey.
Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Trying to board a ship on a Saturday morning when I should be checking injury reports hurt me this week. Both Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten were out, and the Orange still needed overtime to win this. My pick would have been right with the Hokies at full strength.
Buffalo (-1.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a good week to have a Bull as a mascot.
Toledo (-9.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Toledo needed 22 fourth-quarter points and a missed two-point conversion with no time left to pull out the one-point victory. There's a reason I didn't bet on this one.
Memphis (-7.5) at UTSA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Seth Henigan had a monster game and Memphis still lost.
Vanderbilt at Auburn (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's obvious that this line was based on a version of Vanderbilt that no longer exists.
Old Dominion (-2.5) at Appalachian State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I missed on the Monarchs again. I know you are all as shocked as I am.
Tulsa at UAB (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is the start of redemption for Jalen Kitna after his dismissal at Florida. He pled guilty to lesser charges and football will forgive him, but fans may never.
The national recognition is piling up for Jalen Kitna.
25-of-32, 404 yards, 6 TD vs. Tulsa
?: https://t.co/2tpPuBW9Tp#WinAsOne pic.twitter.com/PHDwsyLH1u
— UAB Football (@UAB_FB) November 4, 2024
(1) Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I just have one question for Michigan fans: was it worth it? Was it worth the national title to have Jim Harbaugh more or less forced to leave and possibly have to vacate it anyway? I think I know the answer, but I'm curious. The cheating tarnished the title and ended the dynasty.
Florida vs. (2) Georgia (-14.5) in Jacksonville: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh, what could have been for Florida. DJ Lagway was playing well and the defense was playing tough, and then this happened.
From having the #2 team in the country on the ropes to being on your 3rd string QB…
Such a beautifully painful game ??♂️
Win for DJ Lagway, pray for Aidan Warner #GoGators ?pic.twitter.com/fW5ZekPjTH
— Sebastian Fearon DPT, CSCS, OCS (@TheDegenDoc) November 2, 2024
Amazingly enough, Lagway has practiced in a limited capacity this week and may play against Texas. That's great news for Florida, but I hope they don't risk his future trying to save Billy Napier's job.
Texas Tech at (11) Iowa State (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright loss, but I was high on both of these teams entering the season and we got to see why in this game.
(13) Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Indiana rattled off 47 straight points after trailing 10-0 and are now 9-0 for the first time ever. Soft schedule or not, this feat should be celebrated.
The Indiana football program began in 1887.
In its first 136 years, the Hoosiers NEVER started a season 9-0.
Now in its 137th year, and Curt Cignetti’s 1st, Indiana is a perfect 9-0.
And all 9 wins have come by at least 14 points.
Historic isn’t even enough to describe it. pic.twitter.com/neqXCdmiZP
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) November 2, 2024
(17) Kansas State (-12.5) at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Zeon Chriss is what Avery Johnson wishes he was.
UCLA at Nebraska (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There are similarities between these teams, but the difference is that UCLA has veterans learning a new scheme. Nebraska has a bunch of young talent trying to raise a program from the abyss. The veteran leadership of UCLA is finally on the same page as the coaching staff.
North Carolina (-2.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Florida State is cursed because a fan on X welched on a bet. Welcome to college football in 2024.
Arizona at Central Florida (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The regression from Noah Fifita is concerning. Was Jedd Fisch that critical to his development or is he pressing too hard? Arizona needs to figure it out. This season is already lost, but it could affect his confidence long-term.
Middle Tennessee State at UTEP (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I shouldn't have been scared of this. The handicapper who had UTEP favored needs to evaluate some things...
Louisiana-Monroe at Marshall (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Warhawks still aren't getting any respect. I actually thought they would win this outright, but I'm glad I backed off the outright bet.
Wyoming at New Mexico (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kaden Anderson is a difference-maker for the Cowboys.
Coastal Carolina (-3.5) at Troy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Man, this Coastal team is a disaster.
Navy (-10.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Rice Navy was supposed to kick off at 3 o’clock it just ended at 11:17 8 hours and 17 minutes after it was supposed to kick off ??
— AAC = POWER 5 (@UNTvsTheWorld) November 3, 2024
The game was delayed five hours due to weather...while Houston was able to whip on K-State less than four miles away. When the lightning cleared, Navy had nothing. Rice got their first win against Navy in 22 years.
Massachusetts at Mississippi State (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Van Buren Jr. still has things to learn, but this was some good, glorified practice.
Arizona State (-3.5) at Oklahoma State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Pokes got doubled up at home. This was supposed to be the season where Oklahoma State broke through. Ollie Gordon II and Alan Bowman came back. Instead, they need to win out to make a bowl game.
Hawaii at Fresno State (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Hawaii offense isn't putting up massive numbers under Timmy Chang, but the defense is much improved over the last few weeks. If the offense catches up, look out!
(10) Texas A&M (-3.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
South Carolina won't win the SEC this year, but they may decide who does. This team wiped out A&M and Oklahoma, should have beaten LSU, and could have beaten Alabama.
Louisville at (11) Clemson (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Louisville shows up in Death Valley at night and knocks Clemson out of the expanded playoffs.
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iowa scored 40 points again...on WISCONSIN! This offense is better than it has been in decades.
USC (-2.5) at Washington: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. I know exactly how Lincoln Riley teams respond to adversity and it's not a good thing.
Georgia Southern at South Alabama (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Alabama gave up 20 unanswered in the fourth to snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory.
Kentucky at (7) Tennessee (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There was no miracle coming to save Kentucky, but the defense did slow the Tennessee offense down. That's not nothing.
(18) Pittsburgh at (20) SMU (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Asteroids have fallen to earth more gracefully than Pitt just did.
SMU is absolutely BLASTING Pitt pic.twitter.com/TVirTGTTrH
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 3, 2024
TCU at Baylor (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Missed by that half. This was a great game in Waco. One of the best ones of the weekend. I can't be too mad about missing this.
Colorado State (-2.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At least I closed the week on a high note.
College Football Betting Season Results
I got back above .500 this week with a 26-22 tally. A strong early week helped. That puts me at 258-251 on the season. That's a little worse than I had hoped for, but I'm still within striking distance of my goal. I know I bombed the maximum bets this week. Let's hope I made up enough in the middle.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-2 (27-31) = -4
2. 7-6 (109-90) = 38
3. 13-6 (71-81) = -30
4. 4-4 (36-27) = 36
5. 1-4 (16-22) = -30
I'm still gaining back a little of what I lost last week. I came out seven points ahead leaving me up 10 points on the season.
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