RADIO
We had more Tuesday and Wednesday college football this week and I love it! Those picks were released in the DFS articles again this week. There is only one game on Thursday this week before three games on Friday. The difference is that the Big Ten (18) is taking Friday off this week.
So far, I think I had a bad week this week. I know I missed every game on Thursday and Friday. I needed to rebound on Saturday and it didn't look good early with Navy getting blown off the field by the Irish. We'll recap the rest of Week 9 before getting started on Week 10. How is it Week 10 already?
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year, but there is still a lot of season left. We'll recap how Week 9 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 10.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 31, and Friday, November 1
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Tulane (-16.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Charlotte hung around with Memphis last week. That's keeping me from betting this heavily. I'll take the Wave because their defense is much better than Memphis, but I'm losing confidence in them each week.
Georgia State at Connecticut (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That half makes this too many points. Give me GSU.
South Florida (-2.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Golesh on Byrum Brown: "Byrum is practicing and has continued to practice. His deal is simply when is he going to be healthy enough to truly go?" Golesh acknowledged Archie has taken 1st-team reps this week and should know more about Brown's status Thursday.
— Joey Knight (@TBTimes_Bulls) October 29, 2024
Whether Brown plays or not, the Bulls are still the better team. Give me USF.
San Diego State at (15) Boise State (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is Ashton Jeanty's world. The rest of us are just living in it. Boise State rules on Friday!
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Sam Houston (-5.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I never thought we would see FIU involved in a defensive battle in 2024, but here we are...
UTEP at Louisiana Tech (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UTEP was a little better with Skyler Locklear at quarterback, but the improvement of the UTEP defense was the real story in this one.
Liberty (-22.5) at Kennesaw State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
WINLESS NO MORE!!! Kennesaw State beats undefeated Liberty!!!!! pic.twitter.com/oxHzb4MzED
— The Get Back Coach (@TheGBCoach) October 24, 2024
Just gonna leave this here?♂️ pic.twitter.com/TFhduN854m
— Barstool Kennesaw State (@OwlsBarstool) October 24, 2024
Middle Tennessee State at Jacksonville State (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Gamecocks are going to make some MAC team miserable in a bowl game.
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Whenever I pick an Old Dominion game, you should probably just take the other side.
Syracuse at (19) Pittsburgh (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Whatever feeling that I had when picking this game definitely didn't include this.
Kyle McCord has thrown not 1, not 2, but 3 PICK SIXES IN THE FIRST HALF!! pic.twitter.com/xUCTRnn9T2
— Old Row Sports (@OldRowSports) October 25, 2024
Some are taking shots at Pitt's offense only mustering 217 yards. Why did they need more? When the defense scores 21 points, just take your ball and go home...
Louisville (-7.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I want to say that I knew better, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that I didn't know anything this week...
(17) Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The biggest story of this game was the UNLV defense holding Ashton Jeanty to 128 yards on 33 carries. They couldn't keep within three points though.
Rutgers at USC (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Makai Lemon is that big-play receiver that USC was missing early in the season. The Trojans might just turn this mess around.
Nebraska at (4) Ohio State (-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nebraska had several chances to win this one. This was the closest game against the Buckeyes for Nebraska since their only win in the series back in 2011.
(12) Notre Dame (-13.5) vs. (24) Navy at East Rutheford, NJ: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is a different-looking Irish team and it's by design. Notre Dame realizes that the schedule is a dud. It's not entirely their fault -- when you schedule USC and Florida State, you don't expect them to be a combined 5-12.
The Irish don't just need to win if they want to make the playoffs -- they need to blow teams out. However this ends up, the Irish still has the worst loss of any one-loss team.
Washington at (13) Indiana (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
At some point, we need to have an uncomfortable conversation about how good Indiana is. They were so bad last year that they got the easy Big Ten (18) schedule this year. Ohio State will be the only ranked team that the Hoosiers face over the entire 2024 season. So, I ask again...how good are the Hoosiers?
Oklahoma at (18) Mississippi (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm glad that Oklahoma looked pretty good in this game. The struggles on offense were highlighted in the second half, but hey, at least they gave me hope for one half of football. That's more than I got against South Carolina or Texas...
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kyron Drones with the trifecta in this one!
Triple the trouble ?#ThisIsHome | @KyronDrones pic.twitter.com/xRsVone7EW
— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) October 28, 2024
North Carolina at Virginia (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
North Carolina couldn't be that bad all season with the talent they have. Of course, it happens against Virginia. How bad was it for the Hoos? I'll just leave this here.
North Carolina DL Jahvaree Ritzie (6'4" | 290 LBS) with an 84 Yard Pick Six?
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 26, 2024
Buffalo at Ohio (-6.5): MISS
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Buffalo is dead to me. I can't pick them either.
Charlotte at Memphis (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Former Iowa State running back Cartevious Norton has a home in Charlotte. O'Mega Blake is a very good receiver. The 49ers are going places. They just need more consistent QB play.
Tulane (-7.5) at North Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This never should have been in question. Tulane coasted after building a 45-17 lead and nearly blew it.
Arkansas (-6.5) at Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did Boise State give up on Taylen Green too soon? Probably.
Career day for Taylen Green in a dominant @RazorbackFB win ?? pic.twitter.com/gOU0swdqme
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 26, 2024
Georgia State at Appalachian State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A spirited game by App State keeps the bowl hopes alive.
Central Michigan at Miami (OH) (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the best that the Redhawks offense has looked in YEARS.
Temple at East Carolina (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's the Rahjai Harris whom we saw flashes of brilliance from last season.
(20) Illinois at (1) Oregon (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No top-ranked jitters here from the Ducks. This was a statement.
(11) BYU at Central Florida (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Most of us thought a team from Utah would come in and take the Big 12 (14) by storm. Almost no one thought it would be the team from Provo.
(21) Missouri at (15) Alabama (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Missouri wasn't moving the ball with Brady Cook in the game either. The game spiraled out of control after he went out, but don't blame it all on Drew Pyne. He was fighting an uphill battle anyway. Of course, three interceptions didn't help...
Northwestern at Iowa (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Is Iowa finally ready to admit what every Michigan fan, most Iowa fans, and any follower of college football already knows? Cade McNamara is not the answer. Brendan Sullivan might be. He's not a great passer, but he has the mobility that McNamara doesn't have anymore. It's at least another dimension for the Iowa offense.
Maryland at Minnesota (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I love Mike Locksley. I think he's a great coach. The bad news is that someone is going to have to answer for another disappointing season for Maryland and it will likely be him. Locksley has had five years to turn the Maryland program around and they might be worse than when he took over.
Rice at Connecticut (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UConn barely won and Rice was without E.J. Warner. Woof!
Wake Forest (-3.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The half got me. Stanford is playing much better football, but still coming up short in the win column.
Oklahoma State at Baylor (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Sawyer Robertson is Baylor's best quarterback since Robert Griffin III.
Texas Tech at TCU (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Tech didn't saddle up, but they did only lose by one point. In all honesty, the Red Raiders are going to look back on this game as one they should have won.
Southern Mississippi at James Madison (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We can't bet on James Madison as if they are the 2023 version. Save that betting for Indiana!
Eastern Michigan (-2.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tahj Bullock finished what Ben Finley started. Bullock probably won't take the job back, but it could make Finley's leash shorter or cause Akron to hold him out until he is 100% healthy before bringing him back.
Northern Illinois (-11.5) at Ball State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Just when you think that the loss for Notre Dame couldn't get any worse...David Letterman U shows up and shows out in Muncie.
Bowling Green at Toledo (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rockets wasted a great performance from Jerjuan Newton.
Kent State at Western Michigan (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jaden Nixon only needed eight carries to reach 135 yards. The Broncos are going to save him for when they really need him. It wasn't here.
UTSA (-8.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The UTSA defense continues to struggle. They are getting worse as the season goes on.
Oregon State at California (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did Cal turn a corner? This was a monster game for Fernando Mendoza.
(5) Texas (-18.5) at (25) Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Texas had this game in hand until Vandy's aggressiveness pushed the Horns.
New Mexico at Colorado State (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a great performance by the Colorado State defense. They picked off Devon Dampier twice and didn't allow the Lobos into the end zone.
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Jaguars are a different animal in Mobile.
Florida State at (6) Miami (FL) (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Miami still covered without a touchdown pass from Cam Ward. That's how we know this team is different. Ward did catch a touchdown though.
West Virginia at Arizona (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Another uninspiring performance from the Wildcats. The honeymoon is over, and it will be an absolute miracle if Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan don't leave after this season.
Utah (-3.5) at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Boom! There goes Utah. There's no coming back from this.
Utah State (-1.5) at Wyoming: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wyoming is better with Kaden Anderson at quarterback, but that's not saying much.
Troy at Arkansas State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy still lost, so maybe we aren't that far off that Kimani Vidal did a lot for that team.
(3) Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Drew Allar goes down and Penn State gets better. You don't say! Gee...I never would have thought that. To be clear, Beau Pribula isn't the passer that Allar is, but he's not as far off as many talking heads would have you think either. Pribula's elusiveness worked against Wisconsin, but will it against Ohio State if need be? We'll find out!
(8) LSU at (14) Texas A&M (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Conner Weigman would have lost this game, and Mike Elko knows it. The time is now for Marcel Reed. The Aggies are quietly a playoff contender. LSU? Not so much. The loss to USC is demolishing their street cred.
Michigan State at Michigan (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The quarterback carousel is finally back at Davis Warren, and it's hard to imagine it not staying there. That doesn't make Michigan much better in the short term, but the questions surrounding this should be gone.
Auburn at Kentucky (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Jarquez Hunter vs. Kentucky:
? 278 Rush Yds
? 2 Rush TDThe most rushing yards in a game by any player this season ? @AuburnFootball pic.twitter.com/g3SQ3MZ8mF
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 27, 2024
That Kentucky defense that is supposed to be so good just got ravaged by Jarquez Hunter. Mike Stoops has to be on the way out of Lexington now, right? They don't put up with this kind of stuff in the SEC anymore.
Kansas at (16) Kansas State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kansas finally shows up in the Showdown and they still give it away late.
(22) SMU (-11.5) at Duke: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
SMU just won a road game being -6!!!!! in turnover margin. 6 turnovers. 0 forced turnovers. That shouldn’t be possible.
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) October 27, 2024
SMU turns it over six times and still wins. That's the first time that has happened since Marshall did it in 2011. The last time before that? It's not even on record in the modern era.
SMU dude got on it. pic.twitter.com/5iEVGfjcEM
— Raffles (@NoleBhoy) October 27, 2024
On the other hand, this is one of the most impressive blocked kicks you'll ever see. It's also completely legal (for now).
San Jose State at Fresno State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Well San Jose, it was sure fun while it lasted, wasn't it?
Cincinnati at Colorado (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter keep getting better. Colorado feels like a sleeping giant in an underwhelming Big 12 (14).
Washington State (-14.5) at San Diego State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm convinced that Wazzu can't convincingly win a game. It's out of their skill set.
Nevada at Hawaii (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Brenden Lewis is much more important to the Pack than we know.
College Football Betting Season Results
Ouch. This was a tough week. 21-36 is bad enough but I lost more points this week than in any other week this year. I'm still just above .500 at 232-229. Let's check out the damage in points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-4 (26-29) = -3
2. 10-11 (102-84) = 36
3. 4-10 (58-75) = -51
4. 2-7 (32-23) = 36
5. 3-3 (15-18) = -15
I lost much of my surplus on the season. I came out 42 points behind last week. That leaves me only three points in the bank. I need a good week in the lightest week left of the 2024 season.
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