College Football Betting Picks for Week Twelve (11/20/2021)

As we enter Week Twelve, the playoff race continues to take shape, with Baylor's upset of Oklahoma possibly dashing the Sooners' hopes. Meanwhile in Athens, the Georgia Bulldogs still look incredible, with a likely SEC Championship against Alabama. In the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face off this weekend in what will likely be a preview of the Pac-12 championship in a few weeks, and in the ACC, both Pitt and Wake Forest can clinch their position in the title game with a win this weekend.

In Week Ten, our over/under and moneyline underdog picks ended up with a 1-2 record. Kentucky could not hold off a few big plays as Tennessee knocked off the Wildcats. USC and Arizona State had themselves an unexpected slugfest. Lastly, Appalachian State and Arkansas State easily cashed their under. The season-long record is now 19-17.

For Week Ten of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

South Florida @ Tulane (-5.5)

O/U: 59.5

When former Clemson offensive coordinator Jeff Scott was hired to take over the South Florida Bulls program, he was fresh off a dominant run with the Tigers that included a few national championships. While Scott's 3-15 record thus far is uninspiring, consider that the first year was in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with essentially no spring practices to build rapport on. After a dismal 1-5 start to the 2021 campaign, the fanbase began to groan, but a victory over Temple in late October and spirited performances against two ranked teams, Houston and Cincinnati, over the last two weeks has the team buzzing with energy. Quarterback Timmy McClain has been the main catalyst for the offensive revival, while running back Jaren Mangham has scored multiple rushing touchdowns in six games this season. Last week, Mangham tied Marlon Mack for the second-most career rushing touchdowns by a Bulls player in history. South Florida returns to the road after a memorable senior night loss to Cincinnati, one in which senior guard Michael Wiggs used the opportunity to propose (successfully) to his girlfriend Briah Thomas, to the roar of the crowd. Hopefully, the Bulls can keep that energy and good mojo going into Week Twelve.

If you told coach Skip Holtz that his team would be sitting at 1-8 in Week Twelve, he'd have a hard time coming up with how exactly it had happened. The defensive collapse, after losing three key linemen a year ago, has been staggering as the Green Wave allow 36.1 points per game, good for 119th in the country. On offense, sophomore quarterback Michael Pratt can be a gamebreaker, as shown in the close loss to Oklahoma, but he also makes far more mistakes than you want, with the team averaging 2 turnovers per game. There has not been much semblance of a running game, and the one-dimensional attack has cost them in several games this year.

Tulane is the more talented team on paper, but South Florida is seemingly catching their stride right now. Both teams have a long way to go towards competing in the American Athletic Conference, but it does seem that the program that Jeff Scott is building in Tampa should amount to something in the near future.

Pick: South Florida money line +180

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New Mexico State at Kentucky (-36.5)

O/U: 59.5

Luckily for New Mexico State fans, Las Cruces, New Mexico, is a bountiful town with plenty of entertainment. The football team managed only one win on the year – a narrow 43-35 victory over FCS level South Carolina State, and has yet to show that they can keep up with any FBS programs. The Aggies did get good news recently when they were invited to join Conference-USA, replacing the many programs that will be realigning over the next few years to the Sun Belt and American Athletic Conferences. Being aligned with a conference should help head coach Doug Martin, now in his 9^th year at New Mexico State, with recruiting which has been abysmal. Left tackle Sage Doxtater will make his 50^th career start this week and is the only NFL prospect on the roster. The offense is 116^th in scoring in the country, while the defense checks in at a measly 127^th. There is virtually no semblance of a running game (90.1 yards per game is good for 126^th out of 130 FBS programs) and the team has trouble stopping their opponents because the defense never leaves the field. We’ve leaned heavily on New Mexico State unders this season, and I don’t see any evidence to stop now.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has rebuilt Kentucky into a formidable program. Despite a current three-game losing streak, the team is 7-3 and just outside the Top 25 rankings. Offensively, Penn State transfer Will Levis has brought a new dynamic to an offense that previously didn’t pass all that much with current New Mexico quarterback Terry Wilson at the helm. Levis is a scrambler who’s run for five touchdowns and thrown for 19 touchdowns, but also is privy to the turnover having committed 11 interceptions. The run game is stellar, running behind a stout experienced line, Chris Rodriguez Jr. has already topped 1,000 yards this year, and backup Kavosiey Smoke is gaining 5 yards per carry when he gets the call. The defense slipped up, allowing 45 points to an upstart Tennessee squad last week, but have largely played well. This is a game that the defense has a chance to pitch their first shutout of the season.

Despite the recent three-game slide, there's no denying this has been a successful season for the Wildcats. Kentucky will be looking to survive and advance, and they should do so easily against one of the worst programs in FBS.

Pick: Under 59.5

Massachussets at Army (-37)

O/U: 56.5

The UMass Minutemen let head coach Walt Bell go after a 1-8 start to the year. The team ranks 129th in scoring defense, 127th in scoring offense, and this is all against the 89th most difficult schedule in the country. The offense has played four different quarterbacks, and Brady Olson is the current starter. Olson is completing only 48.1% of his passes, with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. The running game does have Ellis Merriweather, a bell-cow who has 996 total yards and four touchdowns on the year. While the defense has a lot of young contributors, no individual player has more than 1 sack, showing the lack of individual star talent. With double-digit losses to Rhode Island and Maine, this is a season that most in Amherst want to finish quicker than it is.

The Army Black Knights are here to ensure and preserve the sanctity of the triple-option offense. The Knights have a deep slate of running backs, fullbacks, halfbacks, and quarterbacks who take hand-offs, pitches and other designed runs to great success. When they need to pass the ball, Tyrell Robinson is a popular target, with three of his eight catches going for touchdowns. Army's defense has been stout this year, holding Georgia State to only 10 points, and narrowly falling to Wisconsin in Madison. This game should be a breeze for Coach Jeff Monken, whose Knights are 6-3 and in the midst of another successful season.

The nature of Army's triple-option offense severely limits their opponents' possessions. They won't need to worry much about UMass scoring, so to hit the over, Army would need a standout offensive performance. I expect Monken to put it on cruise control in the second half en route to an easy 35-3 win.

Pick: Under 56.5

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