College Football Betting Picks for Week Four (9/25/2021)

As we enter Week Four of the college football season, the top teams are starting to cement their places in the rankings. Penn State and Michigan suddenly look like the favorites in the Big Ten, Clemson seems to be beatable, and the level of parity this season is higher than we've seen in over a decade. Still, with all these changes, the one constant is that Alabama and Nick Saban could completely rebuild their offense and defense after a host of NFL departures, yet hardly miss a beat with last week's big win at The Swamp.

The rumors of our demise were greatly exaggerated with a monumental bounce-back 3-0 performance in Week Three. Kent State hung with Iowa until the fourth quarter, en route to an easily cashed under. Similarly, in College Station, the New Mexico Lobos gained zero traction as the under hit by nearly twenty points. And in the late game, Coach Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys traveled to the iconic blue turf of Boise State and went home with a road upset victory as 4-point underdogs. The season-long record is 7-6, with bettors cashing the Cowboys at +180 on the money line.

For Week Four of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

Boise State @ Utah State (+9.5)

O/U: 70.5

After a loss at home as a favorite, coach Andy Avalos' Boise State Broncos make the four-hour drive south to Logan, Utah. In last week's loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, quarterback Hank Bachmeier had an uneven performance and did little to quell the doubts about his status as the unquestioned starting quarterback. In the team's two losses to UCF and Oklahoma State, the Broncos held a lead only to squander it away in a narrow loss. The schedule should get considerably more favorable as Boise State enters conference play, but it is apparent that this is not a team with the typical talent or pedigree of a normal Boise State team that most are accustomed to. The Broncos have competed in five consecutive Mountain West Conference championship games, but have a significant amount of work ahead of them if they hope to extend their streak to a sixth year.

Coming off a 1-5 performance in the abbreviated 2020 season, expectations were low in Logan, Utah. New head coach Blake Andersen came on board from Arkansas State, bringing along his quarterback Logan Bonner and a pass-happy offense that has jumpstarted its way to a 3-0 start. Andersen brought along a host of transfers this off-season, and the impact is showing across the board, especially with his offensive line that has allowed a mere three sacks in as many games so far. The offense has hummed in wins over Washington State, North Dakota, and Air Force, while the defense has shown a knack for forcing turnovers, led by graduate transfer linebacker Justin Rice and his 10 tackles per game and three interceptions.

The opportunity to showcase these teams on CBS was too much for the programs and the Mountain West Conference to pass up, but the unfortunate implication is that they'll be playing at noon eastern time (10:00 am mountain time). The 10:00 local start marks the earliest game in Utah State football history, as well as their first-ever game broadcast nationally on CBS. The coaches will do everything they can to prepare their teams, but such an early game is a tall and unusual task for both teams.

Pick: Under 70.5

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Kentucky at South Carolina (+5)

O/U: 48.5

The progression of Kentucky from a basketball blue-blood to a basketball blue-blood that also fields a decent football team has not been an easy path. Under head coach Mark Stoops' leadership, the Wildcats are 52-50 overall but have won their last three bowl games and earned their first ten-win season since 1977 only a few seasons ago. At quarterback, Penn State transfer Will Levis started the season strong in wins over UL-Monroe and Missouri but faltered badly with a pair of interceptions against FCS-level Chattanooga. The 28-23 win over the Chattanooga Mocs hopefully served as a wake-up call to the 'Cats that they can't take a week off, especially important as they travel to one of the SEC's cellar dwellers. The rushing attack, spearheaded by Christopher Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke is the team's strength on offense, and they're complemented by a solid top two receiver duo of Wan'Dale Robinson and Josh Ali. If the defense can generate more turnovers, this team could be a sleeper in what appears to be a weakened SEC East.

The South Carolina Gamecocks won their first two games with former North Dakota State quarterback Zeb Noland at the helm. Noland came to South Carolina after his spring 2021 season with the Bison as a graduate assistant coach but was sprung into duty with his final season of eligibility because of an injury to starter Luke Doty. Noland served his role as a game manager but ceded his way to Doty who returned to appear in the Gamecocks' blowout loss to Georgia last week. The running backs have yet to truly break out, but the duo of JuJu McDowell and Marshawn Lloyd has the speed to burn and can make their opponents pay with a big play.

As the SEC slowly enters conference play, the true mettle of many teams will be revealed. Kentucky, if they have any hope of competing for a division title, should walk into this game with an aggressive approach and a need to make a quick impression. On the other hand, South Carolina has enjoyed a mini resurgence with a 2-1 start under new head coach Shane Beamer and will need their quarterback Doty to play with poise and precision. Do not expect the defenses to factor much into this game - Kentucky has been able to strike for their fair share of big plays this year, and South Carolina gets the benefit of a healthy young quarterback at the helm.

Pick: Over 48.5

Hawaii at New Mexico State (+17)

O/U: 62

When Todd Graham was hired as the Pitt head coach in 2011, he infamously coined the phrase "high-octane offense" as his system. Since his one-year stint in the 'Burgh and a briefly longer stay in charge at Arizona State, Graham's offenses have not held up to that lofty expectation but have been formidable. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has played poorly, tossing five interceptions compared to a mere six touchdowns in the Rainbow Warriors' 1-3 start. Swiss-Army knife Calvin Turner, who transferred before the 2020 season after his previous school (Jacksonville U.) shut down its football program, has not been able to muster much yardage on the ground but does pace the team with five total touchdown scores and 41 total touches. Defensive lineman Jonah Laulu has been an early bright spot, garnering three sacks so far. A 1-3 start is not ideal, but considering the losses that came at the hands of UCLA, Oregon State, and San Jose State, the team should enter this week with the hope of turning around their season with hopes of a bowl game on the horizon.

Coach Doug Martin's Aggies finally etched their name in the win column with a 43-35 victory over South Carolina State. The team had lost its first three games by a combined 56 points, hardly putting up much of a fight. Sophomore quarterback Dino Maldonado started the season as the third-string at the position but catapulted his way to the top due to the ineptitude of his higher-ups. The Aggies' dilemma of poor skill position players still exists, as no running back is averaging better than 3.8 yards per carry. The defense, meanwhile, has been a strong point forcing five interceptions and 26 tackles for loss in the early going.

Hawaii's performances under coach Graham have been maddeningly inconsistent, a fact that is unlikely to change midseason. Outside of the win over Portland State, the Rainbow Warriors have averaged a mere 16 points per game, showing little signs of life. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico State finally showed some signs of life on offense in last week's win over South Carolina State, but you have to consider the opponent.

Pick: Under 62

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