RADIO
Our college football action starts to get a little more spread out this week. We have another Wednesday game in the Fun Belt this week and a pair of games on both Thursday and Friday before another big Saturday slate. We are in the heat of conference battles right now and we know as much about these teams as the teams do themselves. Sometimes, that isn't much...
What did we learn in Week 7? The officials still have no earthly idea what pass interference is, so we don't either. They really don't know what roughing the passer is either. The officiating seems to be getting worse as the season goes on, which is never a good thing.
The top-10 was littered with upsets. The SEC is going to be really, really tough. I hope we never see a two-loss team make the college football playoff, but if it is to happen, it will likely be this year...until the dreaded expansion that is going to destroy this game.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 8 (10/19-21/22)
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Georgia State at Appalachian State(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mountaineers have had 10 days to stew on their loss in San Marcos. This is going to be a tough one for the Panthers. Give me App State.
Virginia at Georgia Tech(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas must think that Jeff Sims is playing. I tend to think he will as well. The Bees' defense has been a strength this year and Sims has the offense looking pretty good. I don't like the half, but I like Virginia's offense even less. Give me the Wreck.
Troy at South Alabama(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Trojans have a quarterback controversy going on and have had some trouble running the ball. The Jaguars are usually money at home. Give me USA.
Tulsa(-13.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Regardless of the status of Davis Brin or Tulsa's five running backs, this feels low. They aren't as explosive as UCF, but Tulsa has a lot of good receivers that are going to shred this secondary. Give me the Dust Devils.
UAB at Western Kentucky(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm a little surprised by this. The Hilltoppers are having problems stopping the run and I don't think they can cover Trea Shropshire. Give me UAB straight up.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 7. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
This should be better than last week, but I was out running around all day Saturday, so I didn't get a good grasp on everything that happened. I know I missed the Oklahoma pick, but that is almost a weekly occurrence.
Louisiana at Marshall(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I didn't expect an outright loss for the Herd at home, but they earned it. Khalan Laborn was the only player in a green uniform that wasn't a disappointment.
Baylor(-3.5) at West Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The loss of Blake Shapen hurt the Bears, but their inability to stop Tony Mathis hurt them more. Kyron Drones looked really good at times, but you can tell that this was his first action that wasn't in garbage time. He threw an interception with the Bears driving that could have given the lead back to Baylor. This was a very entertaining game, but with the way Shapen was playing when he got hurt, I'm pretty certain that Baylor would have won had he stayed in.
Temple at Central Florida(-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, Temple kept it close for a quarter. Though I'm not sure if you can still have a moral victory when you allow 70 points...
Navy at SMU(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was convinced I was losing this until Navy scored 20 points in the fourth. Tai Lavatai and the rushing offense finally wore SMU down, but the comeback fell short.
UTSA(-33.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The uniforms were the best thing about FIU in this game and UTSA still didn't cover...
(10)Penn State at (5)Michigan(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Michigan offensive line completely dominated this game. Of course, having running backs like Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards doesn't hurt either. Penn State had allowed 399 rushing yards in the previous five games this year. They allowed 418 in this one alone!
Auburn at (9)Mississippi(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was feeling good about this when Ole Miss jumped out 21-0, but Auburn showed a lot of heart fighting back to make sure I didn't win this bet...by half a freaking point...
(19)Kansas at Oklahoma(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Oklahoma defense played better in the first half, but they still blew a lot of coverage and the tackling left something to be desired. It's better, but the bar for improvement was on the ground after the Texas game. Dillon Gabriel looked good. Eric Gray looked explosive for the first time since 2019. It was nice to see improvement, but this was a game that Oklahoma should have run off with considering KU's turnover right after halftime.
Iowa State at (22)Texas(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I see why Iowa State and Matt Campbell were mad. That probably should have been a targeting penalty and that non-call might have affected the outcome of the game. Of course, normally reliable Xavier Hutchinson dropping a pass with nothing but green field in front of him for the go-ahead touchdown did affect the outcome of the game.
Minnesota(-6.5) at (24)Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I talk up Tanner Morgan and he throws for 21 freaking yards. 21! This was a great performance by the Illinois defense and once again Chase Brown proved he can get the tough yards against a tough defense. I can finally say with confidence that Illinois is the best team in the Big Ten(14) West. I don't think Minnesota wins even if Morgan is in the game on the last drive. The Gophers couldn't move the ball with him in the game anyway.
Central Michigan(-13.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Akron is getting close. They had to beat themselves on a botched handoff in order to lose this game. It was a strong performance from D.J. Irons up to that point. There's a lot to like about Akron right now, but some more growing pains can still be expected.
Miami(OH)(-6.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Miami defense was tough to score on, but Bowling Green stepped it up on that side of the ball as well. This is a big win for the Falcons. They are no longer near the bottom of the MAC.
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that the CCU defense has had trouble in the second half, but allowing 35 to get blown off your own field by a team with a losing record seems a bit extreme. Blake Watson racked up a school-record 256 yards rushing on the Chanticleers, leaving them reeling heading into their off week.
Miami(FL)(-7.5) at Virginia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You would think I would know better than to take Miami by now. They led 20-0 after three quarters and still blew my cover....
Buffalo(-17.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm glad I didn't let the one good week from UMass blow me off of this one. This was slow perfection by the Bulls.
California(-14.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The cavalry has arrived in the form of Montana Lemonious-Craig. He is the receiver the Ralphies have been sorely lacking since Brenden Rice transferred out. I want to say Colorado shouldn't have stormed the field, but you know what? I don't truly believe that. I love it when fans storm the field and everything stays peaceful, which it almost always does.
Connecticut at Ball State(-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maybe it's time to start believing in UConn. Not outright, but against the spread at least. The Huskies blew a 21-10 halftime lead by not scoring again, but the defense is playing well enough to keep them in games.
Vanderbilt at (1)Georgia(-38.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have known better. Just because Vandy has some talent doesn't mean they can score on Georgia...
(3)Alabama(-7.5) at (6)Tennessee: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is Tennessee's first 6-0 start since 1998 and the first time they have beaten a top-five team in the last 36 tries. As for Alabama, this was the most points scored on them in 115 years. Tennessee also became the first team to score touchdowns on four of their first five drives against Alabama in the Nick Saban era. Oh, and Alabama's 17 penalties? They were the most in school history! Alabama still had their chances to win this game, but a missed kick and their inability to consistently cover the Vols downfield resulted in the Vols smoking stogies. The fans even participated in the festivities in the middle of the field!
(8)Oklahoma State at (13)TCU(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I didn't get the outright win, but I probably should have. Oklahoma State's offense stalled out just enough in the fourth quarter to let TCU come back. This is nothing new. The OSU defense has worn down in the fourth quarter a few times this year. TCU was good enough to pull it off in overtime thanks to another monster game from Quinton Johnston and gutty running by Max Duggan. The Toadies overcame a 14-point deficit for the first time since 2016 to win this one.
(15)North Carolina State at (18)Syracuse(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wolfpack defense is still strong and you could see Jack Chambers getting more comfortable as the game went on. The loss of Devin Leary is a huge blow for the Wolfpack, but Chambers looks like he can still be a strong player. He didn't make mistakes, but the Syracuse defense didn't give him anything easy either. The Orange are 6-0 for the first time since 1987, but the back half of their schedule is brutal.
Arkansas(-1.5) at BYU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know that Jaren Hall likely wasn't 100% in the second half, but his arm didn't really look compromised. The BYU defense has more holes than usual and Arkansas saving Raheim Sanders for the fourth quarter turned out to be a brilliant move.
Maryland(-11.5) at Indiana: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Terps may have won the battle, but they lost the war. That injury to Taulia Tagovailoa looked really bad, but apparently, it's a sprain of the MCL and not a tear. I wouldn't let him anywhere near the field against Northwestern, but he should be good to go after the scrimmage against the Wildcats. Indiana has been tough at home and has played well in losses since losing to Nebraska.
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ho-hum, the Eagles got blown off their own field again. This defense is a mess.
Kent State at Toledo(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Rockets made me sweat this one for a while. Kent scored all of their 31 points in the first half while the Rockets scored 24 unanswered in the second half. Dequan Finn tied a Toledo record with six touchdown passes and ran in another one for good measure.
Ohio(-1.5) at Western Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was easy money and I wish I would have bet more on it. This wasn't the offensive onslaught that I expected, but the Bobcats still looked pretty good on both sides of the ball in this one.
Texas State at Troy(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats put forth another valiant effort, but Troy was able to push one in in the fourth quarter.
Charlotte at UAB(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UAB controlled Chris Reynolds and they were content to strangle the 49ers on the ground. That's not conducive to covering a line like that.
Western Kentucky(-7.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hilltoppers didn't get deep as often as I thought, but this game was never really close either. They didn't need to after halftime.
(25)James Madison(-10.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Dukes got ranked, then got scorched by Kyle Vantrease. Vantrease threw for 578 yards and four touchdowns in the upset win while the Eagles' defense picked off Todd Centeio three times. The two teams combined for 83 points and over 1,000 yards through the air. Five different receivers topped the 100-yard mark. This was a fun one!
Wisconsin(-7.5) at Michigan State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
You can't say that Wisconsin didn't have their chances in this one. The defense struggled with Jayden Reed and Graham Mertz was back to his pedestrian numbers of old. The shortcomings of the passing game aren't all on Mertz. The receivers couldn't get open, even against a suspect Spartans secondary.
Tulane(-11.5) at South Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Gerry Bohanon weren't forced to leave this game early in the second half, I would have hit this. USF hung tough until Bohanon went down.
Louisiana Tech at North Texas(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was low and I should have trusted my gut a little more. The Mean Green ran for a staggering 475 yards in this one. Take that, Michigan! Kaylon Horton had 97 yards on just three carries!
Arizona at Washington(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It really felt like Washington dominated this game, but they still only won by 10. Michael Penix and Rome Odunze both had monster games once again, but this Washington defense is getting gashed lately. If the offense weren't good enough to keep ripping off chunk plays, the Huskies would be 2-5 instead of 5-2...
Rice at Florida Atlantic(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That stupid half! Rice was up 14-0 and didn't score again, but the defense played well enough to win if the offense didn't go stagnant.
LSU at Florida(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's the Jayden Daniels I remember from last year. That's also the Kayshon Boutte that I remember from last year. If LSU has things figured out, look out. There's a lot of talent on that offense.
Utah State(-11.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rams were on their fourth-string quarterback and Utah State was by halftime. The Aggies were on their way with Cooper Legas still in the game, but that went away quickly. Needless to say, this spread was never in any danger. It was a gritty performance on both sides, but it sucked for betting.
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I still don't really know what to make of Monroe. South Alabama looked like they should have run away with this at times, but they kept losing track of Tyrone Howell. He racked up 244 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Arkansas State at Southern Mississippi(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Eagles needed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to escape with the win...but not the cover.
(4)Clemson(-3.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Seminoles lost control of this in the third quarter but fought back with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to make me sweat this one.
(16)Mississippi State(-3.5) at (22)Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Once again, the Kentucky defense dominated Will Rogers. Will Levis wasn't 100% and even had to leave for a couple of plays, but he was in there when it really mattered. How he bounced back from that pick-six with eight minutes left is something you can't teach. He and Chris Rodriguez marched the Wildcats down the field to put it away when they could have folded.
Stanford at Notre Dame(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew it was too many, but I didn't see this kind of dominance coming from the Stanford defense. They baffled the Irish in the first half and held tough enough in the second half for the outright win, their first against an FBS opponent in 12 games. Stanford's last win was on October 2nd of last year against Oregon. Want your weird stat for the week? Notre Dame still hasn't scored a first-quarter touchdown in 2022.
Nebraska at Purdue(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Nebraska defense still has problems. Devin Mockobee set a Purdue record for most yards by a freshman running back (178) but was still overshadowed by Trey Palmer in a losing effort. Palmer set a Nebraska record with 237 receiving yards and had a 60-yard run as well. Nebraska's defense couldn't stop Aidan O'Connell either. However, we have seen Nebraska completely give up after going down 17 points several times in the last five years. They fought back again and again in this one but fell just short.
Memphis at East Carolina(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This wasn't quite the meltdown that the Tigers had in Houston, but it might have been worse. The Tigers scored the first 17 points of the game but quickly lost the lead after throwing an interception inside their own 20 and Seth Henigan throwing a pick-six to tie it early in the second. The Tigers were able to keep up with ECU's offense, but let it slip away in the fourth overtime. How will the Tigers lose next? Stay tuned! This is one instance where the college football overtime rules worked in my favor. ECU had no chance of covering after the second overtime.
(7)USC at (20)Utah(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was the best of all worlds. USC lost and Utah still didn't cover! In all seriousness, this was a great game. Utah's defense still gives up a lot of chunk plays, but they made the plays when they absolutely had to. The stones on Kyle Whittingham to go for two and the win is something you don't see a lot of anymore. The Utes lined up and said "we're better than you," and then proved it.
New Mexico(-6.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aggies had just 225 yards of offense in this game and still won. It almost takes skill to be as bad as New Mexico is...
North Carolina(-6.5) at Duke: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That North Carolina defense is terrible and makes betting on them nearly impossible. Duke really deserved the win here, but Will Hardy made a diving interception to seal the win.
Washington State at Oregon State(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ben Gulbranson was good enough and Damien Martinez carved up the Cougars' defense. The Oregon State defense really got after Cam Ward and stifled Wazzu's run game. That Oregon State defense is better than advertised.
Air Force(-9.5) at UNLV: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have maxed this out. UNLV is cooked. The injuries are starting to pile up, but the defense has finally fully collapsed for UNLV.
San Jose State(-8.5) at Fresno State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I watched this and I still have no idea how the Spartans lost this game. Fresno had negative rushing yards at the half and turned it over three times. The run game got going in the second half for the Bulldogs and San Jose State's offense was awful in the second 30 minutes. This was a rough one to watch slip away...especially against a team that lost outright to UConn.
Nevada(-6.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii isn't just a run-and-shoot scheme. They can actually run. Dedrick Parson is a good back. The shoot works pretty well too. I'm not sure that Brayden Schager is the answer at quarterback – he's too inaccurate for this sort of scheme – but he'll do for now. Keep an eye on Zion Bowens. He has been outstanding in October.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I thought I was having a good week with the games I watched live on Saturday. When I started going through the DVR, it quickly soured. I had another disappointing week, going 23-28 to put my season total at 179-196. That's a nice little hole I need to dig myself out of.
I missed my only max bet, but I did well on the fours. Hopefully, the middle didn't lose me too many points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-2 (26-18) = 8
2. 9-11 (75-81) = -12
3. 6-13 (50-61) = -33
4. 6-1 (21-26) = -20
5. 0-1 (7-10) = -15
I have now lost 72 points on the season after losing 10 more this week. My piggy bank that I've had since 2016 only has 18 points left in it. We have a little more action this week and I need to do better. That starts tonight!
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