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Mike's CFB bettings picks against the spread for Week 5 (9/29 and 9/30). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
Well, you already know I've had a bad week, but there was some insult to the injury as I flipped on some picks that I should have stood pat on. Maryland, Oregon State, and Kansas State stand out. Our pathetic defense made Adrian Martinez look like Lamar Jackson. It's the same old thing. It doesn't much matter who the coach is. Mobile quarterbacks always give Oklahoma problems. From Tommie Frazier to Scott Frost, Eric Crouch, Ell Roberson, Michael Bishop, Brad Smith, Vince Young, Robert Griffin III, Collin Klein...the list goes on and on and it has a new name.
What did we learn in Week 4? The Big 12 is a disaster. Even Kansas has a shot at winning the conference. Parity does exist in college football. Kent State gave Georgia more of a fight than they did Washington or Oklahoma. Colorado State got blown off their own field by FCS Sacramento State. The newfangled transfer system really is great for college football. Can you imagine how loud it would have been in Corvallis if they could have had a capacity crowd there?
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 5 (9/29 and 9/30)
Utah State at (19)BYU(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cougars showed last week how much Puka Nakua means to this offense. Now that he's healthy, I have to think that BYU covers this one. Utah State looked better last week, but they couldn't possibly look any worse. It is causing me to lower the bet a little though.
Tulane at Houston(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has cratered and I'm kind of disappointed. I liked this a lot more when I could find it at -6. The public is realizing that Houston is mostly just a name right now. Sure, they have talent, but talent doesn't matter if you don't have teamwork. I still like Tulane outright.
UTSA(-4.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line would be over a touchdown if it weren't for the Blue Raiders running the Hurricanes out of their own stadium. I was thinking I might be able to get this for under a field goal and I would have felt much better about it. Still, Frank Harris isn't careless with the ball and this UTSA offense is likely better than Miami's. No, I'm not kidding. Give me the Roadrunners.
San Diego State at Boise State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Say what? I had to triple-check this because it's backward. I know that Taylen Green is going to be a good player, possibly even this season. It won't be here. The Aztec offense may be painful to watch, but that defense is very good. Give me SDSU outright. They are 2-1 against Boise on the Smurf Turf.
(15)Washington(-2.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm a believer in Michael Penix and those receivers and the Washington defense was never the problem. This is going to be a great game, but I still like the Huskies here. Three points aren't enough of a deterrent.
New Mexico at UNLV(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the half, but New Mexico is still going to have issues scoring points. I'll take the Rebels.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 4. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
West Virginia(-1.5) at Virginia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have gone higher on this than I did. Virginia Tech is lost right now.
Coastal Carolina(-2.5) at Georgia State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Always take the road team in this series. The road team has won all seven contests! Even without Reese White, the Chanticleers turned in a dominant performance.
Virginia at Syracuse(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Virginia offense still didn't play all that well, especially in the first half. They trailed by 16 at one point and were shut out in the first half. Then something clicked. The Hoos defense played excellent in the last 30 minutes and the offense finally got a few things going.
Nevada at Air Force(-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Another big game for Brad Roberts, but I am surprised Nevada scored 20 points. They may have finally solved the quarterback issue that has drug on since spring. Nate Cox is the guy, at least for now.
Boise State(-15.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is what I was used to seeing from Gavin Hardison last year. He only threw 11 passes, but he completed ten of them. Special teams and defense keyed this win for the Miners. Hank Bachmeier left the program after the offensive coordinator was fired. What I say is true: losses like this get coaches fired. That's what happened for Scott Frost and Herm Edwards. When you lose outright while a big favorite, bad things happen in the aftermath.
Kent State at (1)Georgia(-45.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well, I definitely didn't have Kent pushing Georgia on my Week 4 Bingo Card. I'm quite sure the fate of that Bingo card is going to be as bad as my week was. As you can tell, I'm already fearing the worst...
Maryland at (4)Michigan(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I can't count the number of times I had Maryland picked here before I looked a little too closely at the series history. I should have trusted my gut.
(5)Clemson(-7.5) at (21)Wake Forest: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a rough loss for Wake. They came really close to outplaying Clemson and Sam Hartman set an ACC record with six touchdowns. It still wasn't enough. At least we know what the Wake defense is...
Central Michigan at (14)Penn State(-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Penn State offense didn't look all that good for much of this game. They only scored six points in the second half to make sure I came nowhere near sweating this bet.
(17)Baylor at Iowa State(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a battle as advertised and the Cyclones really did play well enough to win. They just couldn't get stops when it really mattered.
Missouri at Auburn(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Auburn vanilla-ed their offense down to the point where they should have lost this game, and I get it. They were all the way down to their fourth-string quarterback at one point. Still. Run the damn ball! You have a guy named Tank! Missouri missed a chip-shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled out of the end zone in their overtime possession to gift this win to Auburn. I'm happy to see it. I hate it when coaches treat a field goal like a sure thing. You should always be trying to score a touchdown! Missouri had first and goal at the five and sat on it to kick – and miss – a field goal. If Missouri only wins five games this year, they can look at this as the reason they didn't get to go bowling.
Bowling Green at Mississippi State(-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bulldogs covered by a half-point. The Falcons didn't steal me quite enough touchdowns...
TCU(-2.5) at SMU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
As the Smashing Pumpkins put it, "Speed Kills." It did for SMU here. Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado got loose a few times. So did Derius Davis.
Duke at Kansas(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Jalon Daniels is a lot of fun to watch. The Jayhawks dominated the third quarter to almost blow the cover in the fourth. I had to sweat this one out.
South Florida at Louisville(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulls played like the south end of a northbound bull. This was really, really ugly.
Buffalo at Eastern Michigan(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Eagles can't blame this loss on backup quarterback Austin Smith. He played well enough. The defense got torched by Cole Snyder, Quian Williams, and whichever of the three running backs were standing in the backfield at the time.
UCLA(-21.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have gone higher on this one. The silver lining, and perhaps the only good thing that Colorado has right now, is that Owen McCown (yes, from the famed QB family) played a decent game in his first start. The Ralphies at least moved the ball some in this one.
Massachusetts at Temple(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have bet the farm on this. It really says something when Temple shuts you out. This UMass team is one of the worst I have ever had the misfortune of watching.
(20)Florida at (11)Tennessee(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm still a little salty with Tennessee. This is one they should have covered. They were up 17 points with five minutes to play. They promptly allowed a touchdown, sat on the ball, and allowed another 45-second touchdown drive before Florida recovered the onside kick. It took an interception on the last play of the game to sneak away with the win. Allowing 453 passing yards to Anthony Richardson should count as a loss. Maybe Richardson has improved that much in the last few games, but I have my doubts. We'll find out soon enough...
(22)Texas(-6.5) at Texas Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This might have been even more unlikely than the 2008 win. Texas Tech is 2-31 since joining the Big 12(10) in games in which they trailed by double digits at halftime. Both wins have come against Texas. We saw Donovan Smith grow up right before our eyes in this one.
Middle Tennessee State at (25)Miami(FL)(-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hurricanes never recovered from turning the ball over on each of their first three possessions (before ESPN even had their cameras set up!). There were blown coverages the entire game. MTSU had receivers outrunning Miami's secondary on several occasions. In fact, MTSU scored twice on plays of more than 90 yards! One of them was a 98-yard touchdown pass from Chase Cunningham to DJ England-Chisholm after Miami went for it on fourth and goal and didn't make it. Miami was completely and totally outplayed on both sides of the ball on this one. Losing to A&M is one thing. Getting dominated by the Blue Raiders on your own field is something entirely different. MTSU is now 3-0 all-time against the Hurricanes (they beat them in 1931 and 1932) and collected their first win ever against a ranked opponent.
Notre Dame at North Carolina(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Drake Maye had more passing yards and five touchdowns, but Drew Pyne probably had the better game. He looked good running the offense and Carolina just can't stop the run. Audric Estime had some good runs in this game. I'm not ready to anoint him as the savior of the Irish offense until he does it against a defense with a pulse. He did have a solid game against Cal though, so maybe there is something to this.
Minnesota(-2.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not shocked that Minnesota won or that Mohamed Ibrahim was a big reason why. What did surprise me was arguably Tanner Morgan's best game and Michigan State being completely dominated by the Gophers' defense. Dude, you got beat up by a bunch of Gophers! Spartans my ass!
Indiana at Cincinnati(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm still cursing that trash touchdown to cover with around two minutes left by the Bearcats. In all fairness, Cincinnati had this covered by halftime thanks to Ben Bryant's four touchdown passes. How the Indiana defense kept losing track of Tyler Scott is beyond me. You would think that after the first 100 yards or so they would keep better track of him...
James Madison at Appalachian State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Temple and Colorado State transplant Todd Centeio played a nice game to come back and win this. The Mountaineers scored all 28 of their points in the second quarter, but couldn't hang on.
Toledo(-2.5) at San Diego State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm man enough to admit that there is no way the Aztecs should have covered this. If you would have told me they were going to go on a game-winning drive with a minute and change remaining, I would have told you that you need to be committed. Does one drive all of the sudden make SDSU a decent offense? I'm not ready to go that far yet.
Florida International at Western Kentucky(-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I have no idea why I was scared of this. Not only did the Hilltoppers cover this line by more than double, but they also scored the most points in school history. Keep in mind that Bailey Zappe threw a staggering 62 touchdowns last season, and they still didn't drop 73 points on anyone.
North Texas at Memphis(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Austin Aune actually put up better numbers than Seth Henigan in this one. Sometimes I forget that Memphis' defense can be had as well. I just didn't think it would be to a team that got blown out by SMU...
(15)Oregon(-6.5) at Washington State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oregon scored three touchdowns in three minutes late in the fourth quarter and nearly had the cover but the defense couldn't keep the Cougars out of the end zone in the last five seconds. This was a great game just as I was expecting. What a tough loss for the Cougars. They dominated the first 56 minutes of this game.
Tulsa at (16)Mississippi(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Davis Brin weren't forced to leave this game with an injury, I think Tulsa would have taken this outright. The Tulsa defense blanked Ole Miss in the second half of this game, but the offense struggled behind Braylon Braxton. He only completed nine of his 21 passes for just 83 yards. Better days are ahead for him, but this was a tough place for his first meaningful game action.
Georgia Tech at Central Florida(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UCF was never in any real danger of losing this game, but they have to be concerned with the offense after this one. John Rhys Plumlee only mustered 49 passing yards in this one while Georgia Tech's Jordan Sims flew the friendly skies for 314 yards on the UCF defense.
Arizona at California(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I haven't had this much fun watching Cal football since Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch were there. Jaydn Ott is going to be a stud before he leaves Berkeley for the NFL. I'm looking forward to watching him for the next 2+ years.
Akron at Liberty(-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Flames flamed out in this one. DJ Irons is getting better by the game and could make some noise when MACtion starts during the week in about a month. Akron was never going to win this game with field goals, but right now moral victories still count for the Zips.
Navy at East Carolina(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This snoozer was tied at three at the end of three quarters before both offenses found paydirt twice in the fourth. It is somehow fitting that the overtimes were a battle of field goals. I'm still shocked by the Navy outright win though.
Ball State at Georgia Southern(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I owe Carson Steele an apology. He picked up the tough yards on Georgia Southern, but the defense couldn't keep track of Derwin Burgess.
Arkansas State at Old Dominion(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Monarchs were shut out in the first half of this one and needed a pick-six off of former Florida State quarterback James Blackman to win this game.
Rice at Houston(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
T.J. McMahon had a huge game against this beleaguered Houston defense. Only beating Rice by a touchdown should probably count as a loss, especially when you are supposed to win the American. I would say the chances of Houston pulling that with the dysfunction going on within this team are about the same as UMass beating a FBS team.
Northern Illinois at (8)Kentucky(-26.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Will Levis looked great. So did Tayvion Robinson. The issue is that the defense gave up 23 points and a ton of yards to Northern Illinois with a backup quarterback.
(10)Arkansas vs. (23)Texas A&M(-2.5) at Jerry World: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The fumble by Raheim Sanders that A&M returned 95 yards for a touchdown when the Piggies were about ready to go up two touchdowns again completely changed this game in the second quarter. The A&M offense is still nothing to write home about, but that defense is legit. Arkansas had several chances to take this game back, but couldn't quite do it. If they make the field goal there with around 30 seconds left, there is no way A&M drives down the field to win it.
Iowa(-7.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Two defensive touchdowns for the Hawkeyes helped seal the cover. Unfortunately for them, not every team is as offensively inept as Rutgers.
Southern Mississippi at Tulane(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win for the Eagles, but the defense came up with big plays when they needed to knock the Green Wave from the ranks of the undefeated.
UNLV(-2.5) at Utah State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yep...free money. Utah State finally figured out how to slow the Rebels down in the second half, but the UNLV defense still stood tall.
Marshall(-3.5) at Troy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Troy did everything they could on offense to lose control of this game. However, the defense turned in another fine effort to shut out the Herd in the first half and in the final stanza. Troy is turning out to be a really solid team on both sides of the ball.
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Louisiana Tech didn't really play a bad game, but four turnovers and allowing a punt return for a touchdown made this look like a blowout.
Vanderbilt at (2)Alabama(-40.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The three points that Vandy put up on Bama in the first quarter (and their only points of the game) were the first points the Commodores have scored on the might Tide in 15 years. Years! Of course, this was only the third game between the two since then (Hooray, unbalanced schedules!), but still...progress. That's the only good thing Vanderbilt can take away from this game.
Wisconsin at (3)Ohio State(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Marvin Harrison Jr. went over triple digits in yardage eight minutes into the game. Wisconsin had no prayer of hanging around in this one. The offensive line got no push and Graham Mertz still hasn't grown a deep arm.
Connecticut at (12)North Carolina State(-38.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
A garbage touchdown by UConn saved this one for me. I'm glad the Pack called off the Wolves.
New Mexico at LSU(-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's nothing wrong with a glorified practice with fans before diving into conference play...
Miami(OH) at Northwestern(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet more on this. I ended up taking the Redhawks money line outright, which I don't normally do. I usually just stick to spreads. The Northwestern defense is going to have nightmares about Keyon Mozee after this one...
Charlotte at South Carolina(-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Charlotte went three-and-out to start the second half, then just...collapsed. They did a good job of hanging around in the first half. Chris Reynolds looked good and the defense at least provided some resistance. The second half was a complete and total disaster on both sides of the ball. Losing Reynolds hurt, but the team was spiraling out of control before that.
Florida Atlantic at Purdue(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Forget covering, Purdue was lucky to win this period! N'Kosi Perry was a problem, but Dylan Downing's first career 100-yard game saved the Boilermakers. The fact that the defense kept losing LaJohntay Wester in the red zone is concerning as well. There's a lot not to like about this game if you're a Purdue fan.
Kansas State at (6)Oklahoma(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I am so totally disappointed in the defensive effort here, especially since we have a defensive-minded head coach. Adrian Martinez looked as explosive as Lamar Jackson. Martinez is in a much better place between the ears than he was in Lincoln for the last two years or so, but still...when he's pressured, he makes mistakes. We just got no pressure on him. Kansas State was the worst offense in the Big 12(10) by a large margin before this game and our defense still got torched. There's really no excuse for this lack of effort.
Hawaii at New Mexico State(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Really Hawaii? Really? I don't remember a game where I've ever seen New Mexico State call off the dogs, but I can't say I've ever seen them leading a game by 25 points at halftime either...
Boston College at Florida State(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a triumphant return for Jordan Travis, but the real story of this game is the Florida State defense. The Eagles have struggled this year, but Florida State was able to completely shut down the Eagles.
Louisiana(-9.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Warhawks' defense showed up big and shut out the Cajuns in the second half. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns allowed the Warhawks to pick up their first win over the Cajuns in Monroe in 18 years. Party like rock stars, Monroe. You've earned it!
(7)USC(-5.5) at Oregon State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This loss is going to sting for a while because Oregon State played well enough to win and they know it. This was a defensive clinic for the first three quarters of the game. The list of teams that have been able to pressure Caleb Williams like that and contain Jordan Addison is a very short one. I wouldn't be at all shocked if these two teams meet again. Oregon State is that solid of a team. I am very impressed with the defensive intensity and Chance Nolan is very comfortable in this offense.
Wyoming at (19)BYU(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm lucky to get this one. It was spiraling out of control until the Cowboys' offense finally got rolling (for them, anyway) in the fourth quarter.
(13)Utah(-15.5) at Arizona State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was just a tough situation for the Sun Devils, much like Nebraska facing Oklahoma after the firing of Scott Frost. It was a decision that likely needed to be made for Arizona State, but the schedule for the Sun Devils isn't doing them any favors. They have USC and Washington for their next two games.
Stanford at (18)Washington(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Honestly, Stanford was lucky to keep it as close as they did. The Washington defense was dominant for a little over three quarters. It's amazing what Washington has done with Michael Penix. Indiana was content to let him run and create. Washington has made him into more of a pocket passer and he is showing off the arm that he never really did at Indiana.
Western Michigan at San Jose State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I ended up laying off of this one after I found out Jack Salopek wasn't going to play for the Broncos, but I didn't come back here and change it, so I take the loss. The Broncos had nothing at all from the quarterback position and it made this game impossible for them. As good as Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson are, even they can't run against stacked boxes for three hours and have success.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I really thought I had another epic failure this week, but I ended up going 33-27 to put me back in the black at 107-103 on the season. I was so distraught over the Oklahoma loss that I lost sight of the ones I did get right. It took a good night of left coast games to get my head above water. Now lets check the points!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 7-3 (15-11) = 4
2. 14-14 (43-45) = -4
3. 9-6 (35-26) = 27
4. 2-2 (9-15) = -24
5. 1-2 (5-6) = -5
My big bets still left something to be desired as my parlay was a disaster. However, I continue to make my money in the middle. I won eight points this week, but I'm still two points down on the season. The good news is that I still have 88 points in my bank since 2016.
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