RADIO
We have a double dip on Thursday for the first time in a while and four games on Friday. That gives us six chances to make some money before the 43 games on Saturday. First, we'll look back at how we did in Week 5.
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year! We'll recap how Week 5 ended up for us before we get into the first few games of Week 6.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 3, and Friday, October 4
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Texas State (-13.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that the Bobcats aren't as good on the road for whatever reason, but I can't get over the Trojans losing at home to Monroe and scoring just nine points. Give me Texas State.
Sam Houston (-10.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That hook isn't much of a deterrent. The Bearkats are the far better team.
Jacksonville State (-16.5) at Kennesaw State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Owls just lost at home to Tennessee-Martin. I'll take the Gamecocks.
Houston at TCU (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Josh Hoover is good enough to cover this, but I don't like the Toadies and spreads this high. For as bad as Houston's offense is, the defense isn't terrible. Give me TCU but lower the bet.
Michigan State at (6) Oregon (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'll take Oregon, but I have no faith in it...especially since they couldn't cover UCLA last week.
Syracuse at (25) UNLV (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up three points already. It seems a bit much, but UNLV is a team on a mission right now. The Matt Sluka saga lit a fire under an already hungry team. Give me UNLV. That defense is legit.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Army (-12.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have put more on this game. This Army team is dangerous with Bryson Daily at quarterback.
Virginia Tech at (7) Miami (FL) (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This probably should have been a loss for Miami. I don't see "indisputable visual evidence" to overturn the call. I would say the same thing had it been ruled an incompletion on the field.
It was not a catch by Virginia Tech.
The original ruling was incorrect on the field by the refs.
Was it enough to overturn the call from video replay? Probably not.
But ultimately, the call was correct and Miami won like they should’ve. https://t.co/KqMnSSb5e8 pic.twitter.com/Un8me83JNU
— Clint Goss (@NFLDraftDome) September 28, 2024
Washington at Rutgers (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This looks eerily similar to the first dynasty Greg Schiano built at Rutgers, doesn't it? Instead of Ray Rice, it's Kyle Monangai.
Kentucky at (6) Mississippi (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I shouldn't be surprised. This is a hallmark of Mark Stoops. Lose a game or three that you should win, have rumblings about you losing your job, then get a big win. In this case, it was Kentucky's first win in Oxford since 1977.
Kentucky stuns No. 6 Ole Miss for biggest road win since 1977: Kentucky upset No. 6 Mississippi 20-17 on Saturday, when Rebels kicker Micah Davis hooked a 48-yard field-goal attempt way wide with 48 seconds left in the fourth quarter to give the Wildcats… https://t.co/mG7d3ogP9l pic.twitter.com/FTroKRdmwy
— Janie Johnson - America is Exceptional (@jjauthor) September 28, 2024
Minnesota at (12) Michigan (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is a game where Michigan had the cover, then blew it by allowing 21 points in the fourth quarter. Oh...and they should have lost outright. What's with the bad officiating this year? It had been acceptable at the least for a few years now.
Was onside! Brutal decision by the refs to call this a penalty! #Gophers had Mich reeling and the home cooking bailed them out… pic.twitter.com/HyTHcGRotA
— Timtjack44 (@TimTjack44) September 28, 2024
I guess this is the football Gods evening the score for the Gophers being gifted the Iowa game last year when Cooper DeJean's "fair catch" negated a punt return for a touchdown that would have won it for the Hawkeyes.
(20) Oklahoma State at (23) Kansas State (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was not a good look for Oklahoma State. You have a quarterback who is older than some coaches still making the mistakes that a freshman would. This was defensive dominance by K-State in the last three quarters.
(22) BYU at Baylor (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
BYU very nearly blew their first Big 12 (14) road win. Once again, Baylor shows heart by coming back but comes up just short.
Maryland at Indiana (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Indiana's offense is must-see TV.
Nebraska (-10.5) at Purdue: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a scoreless snoozefest at the half because Nebraska had two touchdowns called back (one on a very obvious phantom penalty). They cleaned it up in the second half.
Buffalo at Connecticut (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Good grief, how did Buffalo beat NIU? The UConn offense is finally getting to where we expected them to be last season. Better late than never!
Western Kentucky at Boston College (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a heartbreaker for the Hilltoppers. Boston College had their biggest home comeback in the last 30 years.
Northern Illinois at North Carolina State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a tough one to lose. The Pack only had 177 yards of total offense and they still won...
Navy (-3.5) at UAB: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy sees Bryson Daily and raises Blake Horvath.
If I told you preseason Navy’s first 4 games they would score
49
38
56
41Points in their first 4 games you would have said what?
Blake Horvath ladies and gentlemen pic.twitter.com/Mq48aPKtQO
— CFB_takes (@4thandsaturday) September 29, 2024
South Florida at Tulane (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Byrum Brown played but was ineffective for the Bulls. USF didn't run any designed quarterback runs, so it's pretty clear Brown wasn't 100%. Tulane's defense teed off once they realized Brown wasn't a threat to run.
Ball State at James Madison (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
James Madison looks like a Mike Leach offense. I know it was against Ball State, but still...impressive.
Texas State (-8.5) at Sam Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I didn't expect an outright win from the Bearkats, but I'll take it. Texas State was in control of this game in the first half.
Wisconsin at (13) USC (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It took a monster second half for the Trojans to get the cover. They scored 28 points after the break.
(15) Louisville at (16) Notre Dame (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wait a minute...what was Riley Leonard doing throwing touchdown passes? If it weren't for a disastrous first quarter on defense, the Cardinals would have won the game.
(21) Oklahoma (-1.5) at Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It took a big fourth quarter for Oklahoma to pull this out. Fittingly, it was a Payton Thorne interception that sealed the game for the Sooners.
Arkansas vs. (24) Texas A&M (-4.5) at Jerry World: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arkansas started fast, but the Aggie defense stepped up. The Aggies have won 12 of the 13 Southwest Classics since they joined the SEC. They trailed in 10 of those.
Massachusetts at Miami (OH) (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We have UMass pushing conference favorites into overtime at home now? This is one of the signs of the apocalypse.
Louisiana at Wake Forest (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cajuns got their first-ever win against an ACC school.
TCU at Kansas (Arrowhead Stadium) (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a lost season for Kansas and we just hit October. This has to be a huge disappointment for Kansas fans.
Colorado at Central Florida (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm one of the few that actually bet on Colorado outright. That helped keep me afloat this week.
Liberty (-3.5) at Appalachian State: CANCELLED DUE TO HURRICANE HELENE
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Prayers to those in the southern Appalachian Mountains that still need assistance.
Fresno State at UNLV (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maybe UNLV should take that NIL money that Matt Sluka was trying to shake them down for and give it to the defense. Dave Odom has put together a great defensive team and a fun offense out there in the desert.
San Diego State at Central Michigan (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Unfortunately, most of my Aztec bets were on the money line.
Georgia Southern at Georgia State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The away team winning Modern Day Hate trend faded a few years ago. It's back, baby!
Western Michigan at Marshall (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Marshall's defense came up with big plays when they needed to.
Akron at Ohio (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Parker Navarro does a pretty good Kurtis Rourke impersonation.
Eastern Michigan (-15.5) at Kent State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Kent offense finally had a good game and still lost by 19 points.
North Carolina at Duke (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Duke got the outright win but failed to cover to end my streak. I won't say that the Carolina defense looked good, but they did look marginally better.
UTSA at East Carolina (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's tough to watch UTSA struggle like this. It makes you realize how special of a player Frank Harris Jr. was.
Mississippi State at (1) Texas (-38.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a methodical beating by Texas, but they still didn't come close to covering.
Arch Manning watch…
Excellent performance from the young man. 26/31 for 324 yards. He added 33 yards and a score on the ground too!
Bravery in the pocket. Gets the ball out at the right time and takes the hit.
Check out the celebration… His uncles could never ?? pic.twitter.com/tDpVg9DhMM
— Fantasy Wildcard Devy (@WildcardDevy) September 29, 2024
Old Dominion at Bowling Green (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Harold Fannin Jr. is a beast. The rest of the team? Not so much...
Harold Fannin Jr.has been taking his game to another level the last three weeks
@ Penn State 11/137/1
@ Texas A&M 8/145/1
Vs Old Dominion 12/188/2One of the best TE’s in the 2025 Class https://t.co/RZvz8xcVkG pic.twitter.com/B7JIbEvzjt
— Joe O’Leary (@TheHQNerd) September 30, 2024
Louisiana Tech (-2.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nothing like losing to Monmouth, and then beating a decent Louisiana Tech team. I'm fortunate that I didn't put more points on this one.
(3) Ohio State (-23.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At least this week's ritualistic sacrifice at the Altar of Brutus wasn't a MAC team...
Stanford at (17) Clemson (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better...
(18) Iowa State (-14.5) at Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Iowa State is 4-0 for the first time since 2000 (and notched their first road shutout since 1999) and Houston was shut out in back-to-back games for the first time since 1994. Iowa State is playing old Big 8 football in the Big 12 (14). Can they keep winning with defense and running the football, or will Rocco Becht have to take control at some point? With a back like Abu Sama III, the former might be true.
There goes that man ?@AB3_sama
pic.twitter.com/RLBFvKd9rK— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 29, 2024
Louisiana-Monroe at Troy (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I take back everything good that I said about Troy. Losing at home to the Warhawks is not a good look.
Charlotte at Rice (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
E.J. Warner looked good, but Rice had no answer for Omega Blake.
Tulsa at North Texas (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chandler Morris had a game like everyone thought he was capable of having. We just figured it would have happened at Oklahoma or TCU...
(2) Georgia (-1.5) at (4) Alabama: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What a wild game this was! The Tide led 28-0 but blew the lead with less than three minutes left. Then 17-year-old Ryan Williams made sure that he would never pay for any beverage for the rest of his life in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
ABSOLUTE SCENES IN TUSCALOOSA!!!
RYAN WILLIAMS WITH A 75-YARD TD TO RETAKE THE LEAD! pic.twitter.com/pvc9ML7E7G
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 29, 2024
(19) Illinois at (9) Penn State (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Penn State only won by 14, but it felt like more. That defense completely dominated the Illini for the last 40 minutes of the game.
Middle Tennessee State at Memphis (-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Memphis didn't even score 25 points...
South Alabama at (14) LSU (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
LSU scored a touchdown within the first minute of the game. That's the kind of night it was for South Alabama.
Florida State at SMU (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Why am I the only moron that is still losing money on Florida State? I'm not even a Florida State fan!
Cincinnati at Texas Tech (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I always feel a little more at home when a Big 12 (14) game goes for 85 points. Nostalgia is a powerful drug.
New Mexico (-9.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The halves were not kind to me this week.
Air Force (-3.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Evan Svoboda had the game of his life.
Washington State at (25) Boise State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Next time that you feel like your job sucks, just be thankful that you're not trying to tackle this guy.
Ashton Jeanty made Washington State's defense look like a JV squad. I've never seen more forced missed tackles on a RB tape.
Just watch these 5 clips. #RB1 pic.twitter.com/kVZGdYLBeR
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 29, 2024
Arizona at (10) Utah (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I smashed this line before Cameron Rising was ruled out. Arizona was the first unranked team to win at Rice-Eccles in seven years.
(8) Oregon (-25.5) at UCLA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was Duck domination and they still didn't cover...
College Football Betting Season Results
I had another strong week at 29-23. That puts me at 141-103 on the season. That's good for a 57.8% clip betting on every game. I missed all three max bets for the second consecutive week, so I may not have gained many points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-3 (19-15) = 4
2. 16-9 (59-40) = 38
3. 5-8 (40-31) = 27
4. 4-0 (16-8) = 32
5. 0-3 (8-10) = -10
I won seven points this week for a total of 91 points on the season. That's a great start, and I hope that I've helped you out along the way! I'm still in the process of updating my spreadsheet for the entire 10 years I've been doing this. Each year has a separate tab and you can scroll through those as you wish. I'm almost caught up!
However, I am having issues finding all of my 2019 and 2020 articles. I have been told that they are permanently gone. I have access to some of them, so I have to figure out how I want to approach this. It may take longer than I planned.
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