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The NFL is bumming the Thursday college football high. There is still only one game on Thursday this week and only two on Friday. That's only three games before an action-packed Saturday. Don't worry, there are still a couple of bets worth making.
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. We are off to a good start this year! We'll recap how Week 4 ended up for us before we get into Week 5.
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 26, and Friday, September 27
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Army (-12.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know Army wins this game, but by how much? The Owls whacked Utah State at home last week. I liked this much better when it opened at -10. I'll take Army, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
Virginia Tech at (7) Miami (FL) (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up 11 points already and might go even higher. I get it. Cam Ward is a stud and Miami has a lot to prove. I'll take the Canes.
Washington at Rutgers (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Which Washington team are we going to get? The one that got gouged by their in-state rival or the one that dominated Northwestern to the point that the Wildcat offense wouldn't have scored if not for a turnover and a safety.
Washington is good enough to win this, but I tend to think that Kyle Monangai makes the difference in this game. I'll take Rutgers, but I'm not betting on this. I'm just going to enjoy the game.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
South Alabama at Appalachian State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Alabama Sophomore QB Gio Lopez and Freshman RB Fluff Bothwell are going to be a problem for years to come for opposing teams.
Bothwell is averaging 9.7 ypc this season and has 6 TDs. Lopez has 11 TDs in just 3 games already this season.
USA plays LSU this weekend as 22… pic.twitter.com/yrsT5Ub1Pf
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 24, 2024
A lot has been made of the freshman quarterbacks making a splash this year (and rightfully so), but check out this freshman running back. I'm a Fluff Bothwell fan and I'm not afraid to admit it.
Stanford at Syracuse (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Stanford's defense came to play. Ashton Daniels is still mostly a liability, but if the defense keeps stopping the run like they did (and scoring touchdowns), Stanford could finish in the middle of the ACC. Not bad considering how they looked coming into the season.
(24) Illinois at (22) Nebraska (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nebraska's struggles in close games are also carrying over into this year. So are their struggles against ranked teams. This team will be able to overcome that at some point. We need to see how the team, particularly freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, bounces back from this. That's how we'll know if this team can take that next step.
Nebraska falls to Illinois (+300 ML) ✅
This extends their losing streak against ranked opponents to 27 games ? pic.twitter.com/3RcLWyjYbt
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) September 21, 2024
As Marilyn Manson said, "It's a long hard road out of hell." I feel your pain, Nebraska fans. I've been there. Oklahoma was terrible after Barry Switzer left for the damn Cowboys. All it took was making the right hire (after a couple of really bad ones). Watching Matt Rhule with this team, this feels like the right hire.
Yes, there was a blown call in Nebraska's overtime. That was a late hit and should have been an automatic first down. It wasn't egregious, which is why I'm guessing the officials didn't call it. Judging by the way the drive had gone so far, the automatic first down likely wouldn't have made a difference.
San Jose State at Washington State (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I owe the Spartans an apology. I didn't believe in them after everything they lost in the portal. Please accept my apology and issue my Nick Nash fandom card.
⚡️STAT ⚡️
NICK NASH
San José State Spartans - WR? Triple Crown Watch ?
Receptions: 50 (1st)
Yards: 637 (1st)
Touchdowns: 8 (1st) pic.twitter.com/bPYqRmkTfV— The College Football Fan (@TheCFBFan_) September 25, 2024
Marshall at (3) Ohio State (-39.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Dammit...the Buckeyes let off the gas...
North Carolina State at (21) Clemson (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. Clemson was up 59-14 after the third quarter and took all of the starters out after the first series of the second half.
Florida (-5.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was one of the better games of Graham Mertz's career. Can he do it against a decent defense? If so, Billy Napier may actually keep his job.
Charlotte at Indiana (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This Indiana offense is a whole lot of fun to watch. Curt Cignetti has a whole vibe going on there in Bloomington.
James Madison at North Carolina (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
JAMES MADISON WITH A PICK SIX AND THEY HAVE FIFTY THREE POINTS… IN THE FIRST HALF!!!!!!!!! AGAINST NORTH CAROLINA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/6Hpu9IDBuF
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) September 21, 2024
Who would have thought that it would be James Madison who let up in this game? I mean...they still scored 70 points, a school record from their time in FBS. 120 combined points in this game. Carolina scored 50 and still lost by 20. The old Big 12 would be so proud. Somewhere Mike Leach is smiling.
Houston at Cincinnati (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincinnati notched their first-ever Big 12 (14) home win and have already matched 2023's win total. It's only September! In other news...Houston is in the running for the worst Power Four school.
Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas was threatening to open this game up when the weather delay came. Only one team showed up after the delay.
Tulane (-2.5) at Louisiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I had to sweat this one for most of the game.
Rice at Army (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. I should have maxed this out.
Ohio at Kentucky (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Dane Key was bound to wake up sooner or later.
Ball State at Central Michigan (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Joe Labas did get the win for the Chippewas, but not the cover.
Arkansas State at (20) Iowa State (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was another methodical game for Iowa State. They don't know any other way.
Virginia (-3.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Xavier Brown has crazy potential.
Most talented back Virginia has. pic.twitter.com/MQCjSFHx7v
— Zach Carey (@Zach_Carey_) September 21, 2024
Xavier Brown is Virginia's missing link. Kobe Pace is a solid back, but Brown is dynamic in ways Pace can only dream of. This is just the beginning.
Utah State (-6.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where did that come from? 21 fourth-quarter points from the Owls sealed this.
Southern Mississippi at Jacksonville State (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jacksonville State may finally have their quarterback situation figured out.
Kent State at (10) Penn State (-48.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Penn State Football, in its 135th season, set 2 all-time offensive records in a 56-0 win vs. Kent State in Beaver Stadium:
Total Offense
New record: 718 yds.
Old record: 711 vs. Susquehanna, 1926 (82-0)First Downs
New Record: 40
Old Record: 38 vs. West Virginia, 1962 (34-6)— Mike Poorman (@PSUPoorman) September 21, 2024
(11) USC (-5.5) at (18) Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
USC had every chance to win this game, but they just couldn't get Kalel Mullings on the ground.
Michigan RB Kalel Mullings has more yards after contact (285) than fellow Wolverine Donovan Edwards does total rushing yards (224) on virtually the same number of carries pic.twitter.com/vOr7vJ9axe
— Jack Brentnall (@Jack_Brentnall) September 25, 2024
UCLA at (16) LSU (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We did see some growth from the Bruins in this game. Either that or Indiana is just that much better than LSU...
Miami (OH) at (17) Notre Dame (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm glad the Irish got bored. Still, it's dangerous to have Riley Leonard be the entire offense, especially when he didn't throw his first touchdown pass of the season until this game.
Georgia Tech at (19) Louisville (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Georgia Tech dominated the stats, but Louisville's defense and special teams came up big in this one. So did JaCorey Brooks.
NO WAY JA’COREY BROOKS JUST DID THAT
THIS IS INSANE
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 21, 2024
Buffalo at (23) Northern Illinois (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win for the Bulls in DeKalb, but here we are...
Arkansas at Auburn (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Holy Hog!!! Isaiah Sategna ? pic.twitter.com/2syhpbZFhj
— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) September 21, 2024
I thought that K.J. Jefferson was the perfect fit for this offense. Taylen Green might be even better in this system.
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know you're having a bad year (Kyron Drones) when you're overshadowed by Athan Kaliakmanis...the same Athan Kaliakmanis that Minnesota only let throw about eight times per game as a freshman last year. Greg Schiano has done it again. He has built a solid team at Rutgers.
Arizona State at Texas Tech (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a nice defensive performance by Tech. Cam Skattebo got almost nothing on the ground, so the Sun Devils got creative and had him catching passes instead. It still wasn't enough.
Memphis (-9.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I never thought I would see a Navy game that had 100 combined points. I also never thought I would see this kind of a day from Blake Horvath.
Blake Horvath Navy, #1 QB rating in the Nation
Way to go Blake!https://t.co/cyQ19HwRo6 pic.twitter.com/EfQKMw2Xvc
— Ron Roesink (@QBCoachSink) September 24, 2024
(12) Utah at (14) Oklahoma State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cameron Rising once again returned to his role as professional cheerleader. Utah still pulled it out behind a huge day from Micah Bernard. Freshman Isaac Wilson was good enough to pick up the road win.
Duke (-14.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Maalik Murphy is a really good fit for this offense.
Vanderbilt at (7) Missouri (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, Missouri was lucky to escape this. Vanderbilt played a good game like they did against Virginia Tech, but couldn't quite bring it home.
TCU (-2.5) at SMU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Iron Skillet game sees your 100 combined points and raises you eight. TCU dominated the stat sheet, but turnovers led to three defensive touchdowns by SMU. Even Josh Hoover can't overcome that.
UTEP at Colorado State (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Skyler Locklear experiment has (mercifully) come to an end in El Paso. This is Cade McConnell's team going forward. He almost brought the Miners all the way back after the Rams dominated the first half.
East Carolina at Liberty (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't understand the Vegas love for ECU, but I'll keep taking advantage of it.
(8) Miami (FL) (-16.5) at South Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulls managed to keep it close for about a half. Even a fully healthy Byrum Brown wouldn't have saved the Bulls in this one...but it would have made the game more run to watch. Watching Bryce Archie throw terrible passes wasn't entertaining for most fans...
Northwestern at Washington (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that Northwestern offense is terrible (again).
Florida Atlantic at Connecticut (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is the UConn team that everyone has been waiting to see since Jim Mora Jr. took the job in Storrs.
California at Florida State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cal had every chance to win this game. The Florida State run defense finally showed up. They did a great job on Jaydn Ott.
Tulsa at Louisiana Tech (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So much for Tech looking good...
New Mexico State at Sam Houston (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So much for instincts...
Toledo (-2.5) at Western Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rockets blew the doors off the Bulldogs in StarkVegas, then completely blew this one in Bowling Green. Toledo's win percentage was over 90% at the end of the third quarter. They completely lost control of this game in the fourth quarter.
Wyoming at North Texas (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Those foolish Cowboys still threw 28 passes, but at least Evan Svoboda went an entire game without turning it over...
(6) Tennessee (-6.5) at (15) Oklahoma: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not just a homer. I'm trying to win you money, and I did if you tailed me on this one.
This was a great job by the Tennessee defense and a methodical job by their offense. Oklahoma's three turnovers in their own territory hurt. I can only wonder if this game would have gone differently had Brent Venables made the switch to Michael Hawkins Jr. earlier in the game.
Bowling Green at (25) Texas A&M (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
One of these days Connor Bazelak is going to lead the Falcons to a win in one of these "sure losses." Bowling Green played a hell of a game on both sides of the ball but came up just short.
Akron at South Carolina (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a triumphant return to the starting lineup for Robby Ashford. The job will go back to LaNorris Sellers once he is healthy enough, but the Gamecocks can rest easily knowing that they have a capable backup.
Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Not much went right for Minnesota. They have a good run defense and Kaleb Johnson still destroyed them.
Through Week 4, Kaleb Johnson leads the nation in:
? Rushing yards (685)
? Forced missed tackles (30)
? Explosive runs (18)
? Breakaway runs (16)https://t.co/WfPTV4COCJ— Jack Brentnall (@Jack_Brentnall) September 23, 2024
Georgia Southern at (5) Mississippi (-36.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Rebels are certainly destroying lesser teams. Hey, not every highly-ranked team takes care of business. We'll get to see if they can handle a good team soon enough.
Louisiana-Monroe at (1) Texas (-44.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas's $11 million-dollar backup is about as good as the starter...who just happens to be the projected top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Longhorns are definitely back.
I win! https://t.co/eziyNxsQAR
— Eli Manning (@EliManning) September 23, 2024
Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The deluge in Boston helped the Spartans more since it took away the rushing prowess of Thomas Castellanos. The BC defense did their part against Aidan Chiles to come out with the win.
Baylor at Colorado (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was an exciting win for Colorado. I told you LaJohntay Wester was good.
LaJohntay Wester : 4 catches for 68 yards on 8 targets (Caught the 44-yard Hail Mary on the final play of regulation to help force OT) pic.twitter.com/PlKpbZS9GE
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) September 22, 2024
Fresno State (-13.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game was closer than it should have been.
Purdue at Oregon State (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Beavers defense held Hudson Card to just 56 passing yards on seven completions. You'll win a lot of games if your defense does that.
(13) Kansas State (-6.5) at BYU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Wow. This was total domination by BYU. They took this game over in the last 120 seconds of the first half and never looked back.
College Football Betting Season Results
I had another strong week at 33-21 overall, putting my season total at 112-80. There is a lot of season to go, but I'm feeling great after the first month. My bottom line was hurt since I missed all three of my max bets, and those were all part of my parlays. A good week in the four-point range means I still made some money.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-5 (15-12) = 3
2. 13-7 (43-31) = 24
3. 9-5 (35-23) = 36
4. 6-1 (12-8) = 16
5. 0-3 (8-7) = 5
I've made 84 betting points in the first month of the season. That's a great start, and I hope that I've helped you out along the way! I'm still in the process of updating my spreadsheet for the entire 10 years I've been doing this. Each year has a separate tab and you can scroll through those as you wish. I'm almost caught up!
However, I am having issues finding all of my 2019 and 2020 articles. This may take longer than I planned.
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