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College Football Betting Picks: Against The Spread 9/19-20/24 And Week 3 Results

Nico Iamaleava - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, QB Prospects

This week we only have three games combined between Thursday and Friday before our largest betting day of the season so far. We have 60 games on Saturday with 50 of them featuring FBS vs. FBS teams. That's 50 picks for me to make! But first, we have to go over what happened in Week 3 in case you missed any of it.

I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.

I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. I'm off to a 20-17 start this year with 13 points gained. Let's keep it going!

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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 19, and Friday, September 20

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

South Alabama at Appalachian State (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line has dipped to -7 in spots. I get it. South Alabama laid 87 points on Northwestern State last week and App State almost lost to ECU. The more I think about it, the more that I really don't like that half. Give me the Jaguars and the points.

Stanford at Syracuse (-8.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This looks low, especially when the Cardinal aren't used to playing games east of the Rocky Mountains. I'll take the Orange in the Loud House.

(24) Illinois at (22) Nebraska (-8.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Game in Lincoln or not, this feels high. The Kansas win for the Illini is arguably better than Nebraska beating Colorado. I feel like this game stays close. Give me Illinois. It should remain a one-score game.

San Jose State at Washington State (-11.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is all over the place and I'm not surprised. The Cougs just won the Apple Cup, but their quarterback is still leading the team in rushing. I like what I've seen from San Jose this year, but are they good enough to play the Cougars within 10 points in Pullman? I really don't know. I'm staying far away from this one. Give me Wazzu, but I have no confidence in it.

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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results

I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.

Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow. Let's see how the first full week went!

Arizona State (-1.5) at Texas StateMISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Texas State defense played well. So did the offense. It was turnovers that sunk the Bobcats. They turned the ball over three times which helped Arizona State keep up and eventually win.

UNLV at Kansas (-7.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

We need to give due props to this UNLV defense, but they aren't going to get very far if Matt Sluka keeps leading the team in rushing.

(20) Arizona at (14) Kansas State (-7.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Wildcats didn't have much of an answer for Tetairoa McMillan (11 receptions, 138 yards) so they just dominated everyone else. Problem solved.

(4) Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Was there ever any doubt? Wisconsin allowed their most points in a home game since 2008. This really got out of hand because Tyler Van Dyke got hurt, but it wasn't going well for the Badgers before then either.

(13) Oklahoma State (-18.5) at Tulsa: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This was the largest true road win for the Pokes since 2020. And they didn't even need to use Ollie Gordon II. They have succeeded in saving Ollie for conference play. Will it help?

(16) LSU (-6.5) at South Carolina: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This one is going to sting for SC. They should have won this game. Things started going poorly when LaNorris Sellers went down and they had a couple of questionable calls go against them. I feel bad for the Gamecocks. This is a game they should have won and deserved to win.

The horse collar penalty wasn't really a horse collar since it was all jersey, but it's still going to get called every time. When the referee sees that out of the corner of his eye, it's an automatic flag, I understand that. The play on the right? Totally bogus. SC rightfully won this game.

Arkansas State at (17) Michigan (-23.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It turns out that even the Michigan defense is fallible when put into terrible situations by the offense. With the way the run game was going, why in the hell was Davis Warren allowed to throw three interceptions? On the bright side, he did complete all 14 pass attempts...

Michigan finally got their first rushing touchdown of the season. They enjoyed it so much that they did it twice more. After this game, Alex Orji deserves his shot. The Davis Warren experiment has to be considered a failure at this point.

Central Michigan at Illinois (-18.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Joe Labas only threw one interception in this one, but he had more incompletions (13) than completions (12). Anyway, progress is progress...

Memphis at Florida State (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The bad news is that FSU can't fire Norvell. They aren't liquid enough with all of the lawsuits involving the ACC Grant of Rights. A buyout of Norvell right now would cost the Seminoles $84.2 million. Yes, these college football coach contracts are way out of hand...

Louisiana Tech at North Carolina State (-21.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This game got away from Louisiana Tech after Grayson McCall got hurt for the Pack. Freshman CJ Bailey played very well in relief of McCall even though he didn't score a touchdown. The offense moved better with him in there.

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Miami (OH): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Cincinnati offense is moving better than it has since Desmond Ridder was there.

North Texas at Texas Tech (-10.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Texas Tech had three touchdown drives under a minute in the second quarter. Mean Joe Greene needs to come back to Denton and teach some defense.

(24) Boston College at (6) Missouri (-16.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I figured that Missouri was going to have to work for this one. This is the third straight win for Missouri over a ranked team. That is their longest such streak since 1975.

Massachusetts at Buffalo (-3.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Easy money. I should have maxed this out.

Coastal Carolina (-18.5) at Temple: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This was a terrible game by Coastal. They will have some big issues if they don't find a way to run the ball. In other news, Temple's run defense also looked pretty good against Oklahoma. Is Temple's defense better than advertised? We'll have to keep an eye on that.

(9) Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Sure...now Oregon shows up. This should have been a night game. Night games in Reser Stadium hit differently.

Ball State at (10) Miami (FL) (-36.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That Miami offense...

That may not seem like a big deal but think of all of the successful quarterbacks that came from the U. Bernie Kosar, Jim Kelly, Steve Walsh, Vinny Testaverde, Gino Torretta, Ken Dorsey...none of them accomplished what Cam Ward already has.

Tulane at (15) Oklahoma (-13.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I stand by my pick. Oklahoma shouldn't have won by that much. We can't win in the SEC with Jackson Arnold leading the team in rushing.

(18) Notre Dame (-9.5) at Purdue: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Thomas Hammock giving the Irish pointers after Northern Illinois beat them in South Bend -- and the humility of Marcus Freeman to listen -- paid dividends immediately. This is why Marcus Freeman was the right hire.

Texas A&M (-3.5) at Florida: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Yes, the Florida quarterbacks make too many mistakes for this to be a successful team, but some blame has to be laid on the defense. Texas A&M ran for 310 yards in this game. The last time Florida allowed more than 300 rushing yards in a home game was in September of 2018 to Kentucky.

Nevada at Minnesota (-17.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That Minnesota defense is still a force.

Washington State at Washington (-4.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I really hope that Washington State attracts a few good teams to the Pac-12. That conference deserves to survive and the Cougs deserve a home. This is the kind of win that goes a long way toward bringing the Pac-12 back from the ashes.

West Virginia (-1.5) at Pittsburgh: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I'll say it again. Eli Holstein is much better than Kenny Pickett at this point in their careers. I won't go as far as to say that Holstein is Dan Marino, but he is the best QB Pitt has had since Tyler Palko.

Troy at Iowa (-22.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It has been a long time since I have seen a receiver get behind the Iowa secondary the way that Devonte Ross did.

Appalachian State (-1.5) at East Carolina: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This game was a lot closer than I was expecting. Jake Garcia is looking good in purple.

UAB at Arkansas (-23.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Jacob Zeno carved up the Arkansas secondary, yet it took everything Alan Bowman had to beat the Piggies in Stillwater.

(12) Utah (-18.5) at Utah State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Isaac Wilson looked good in place of Cam Rising, but the team is still much better with Rising in there.

Connecticut at Duke (-16.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Duke was fortunate to win this game. The defense should be better than it is.

Virginia Tech (-14.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

A monster second half from Kyron Drones saved this pick.

Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-5.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Say hello to Zuberi Mobley. FAU owns the Shula Bowl.

UTEP at Liberty (-23.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Liberty was content to run the Miners into submission. That's not conducive to covering spreads.

(5) Mississippi (-22.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Is the Ole Miss defense really as good as it looks?

I realize that they haven't played a really good team yet, but this is still impressive.

UTSA at (2) Texas (-35.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

...and Texas did this with the projected first-overall pick of the 2025 Draft behind their back...

I've won more money (points) on Texas this year than any other team. I hate them since they're my team's rivals, but I'm no dummy. I realize how good this team is.

Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Georgia State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Well, it was fun while it lasted, Vanderbilt.

Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan (-1.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This was probably the best game of the weekend. It's a tough loss for the Gamecocks, but it was quite a comeback after trailing 31-20 heading into the fourth quarter.

Kennesaw State at San Jose State (-19.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I almost feel dirty taking these winnings. San Jose State covered, but this was a sloppy game on offense. Turnovers, penalties...if it weren't for Nick Nash, this team would be sunk.

Western Kentucky (-7.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Nicholas Vattiato threw for 456 yards and the Blue Raiders still lost by 28 at home...

Hawaii at Sam Houston (-4.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is not a game that Sam Houston would have won last year. This team is getting better.

South Florida (-11.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

South Florida should move to the SEC before Florida State does. I'm not joking.

(1) Georgia (-23.5) at Kentucky: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Georgia was lucky to escape Lexington with a win. This is a game that Kentucky could have won.

New Mexico at Auburn (-28.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I was sweating this one. There is no way on God's green earth that Payton Thorne hits this pass. Hank Brown makes this offense different. He can utilize the playmakers that Hugh Freeze brought in through the portal in the last two years.

Toledo at Mississippi State (-10.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Toledo has taken a running-back-by-committee approach. It's unusual for them, but it is working so far.

Indiana (-3.5) at UCLA: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I expected Indiana to win. I didn't expect the Hoosiers to blow UCLA off their own field.

Air Force at Baylor (-16.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I'm nailing those one-pointers this week...

Colorado (-7.5) at Colorado State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

For all of the trash-talking during last year's game, in the offseason (on Colorado State's part), and before kickoff, this was an uneventful game. My biggest takeaway is that Colorado looked very sloppy in this game. Shedeur Sanders wasn't as accurate as usual and the Colorado receivers weren't as great catching passes.

Central Florida at TCU (-1.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I won't say this was easy money because I was sweating it the whole time. TCU led for most of this game. This is the kind of game that UCF has lost the last couple of seasons. They showed resolve coming back in this one on the road.

Kent State at (7) Tennessee (-49.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the only offenses I trust to cover these mammoth spreads. They don't let up. Tennessee did swap in second and third-stringers, but as they should have done, they still ran the offense.

Maryland (-2.5) at Virginia: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Tai Felton is having a breakout year. The real story of this game was the mistakes that Maryland forced Anthony Colandrea into. He's still young, but this Maryland defense looks tougher than it has in years.

Rice at Houston (-4.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Houston more than tripled this line. This was my second-easiest bet of the season (Texas-Michigan being the easiest).

BYU (-10.5) at Wyoming: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

So...can we trade Wyoming to the FCS for Idaho?

San Diego State at California (-18.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I never thought I would say this, but the Aztecs are a mess on both sides of the ball.

New Mexico State at Fresno State (-19.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is not the same New Mexico State team without Jerry Kill guiding the team.

 

College Football Betting Season Results

I hit the last 10 games on Saturday. It's been a while since I've had a 10-game streak, so it feels good! That strong finish led me to a 32-20 week, one of my best in a while. That leaves me at 79-59 on the season. I'm sitting at 57.2% right now, so I'm a little bit ahead of schedule. Let's see how many points we gained!

The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.

1. 5-0 (10-7) = 3
2. 9-11 (30-24) = 12
3. 13-5 (26-18) = 24
4. 3-3 (6-7) = -4
5. 2-1 (8-4) = 20

I'm up 55 points on the season through three weeks. I'm really happy with that! I can't tell you exactly how much I am up overall because in updating my spreadsheet for all past seasons, I found some "bookkeeping errors" back in 2015 and 2016. I'll get those updated sometime soon so we know exactly where I stand.

However, I am having issues finding all of my 2019 and 2020 articles. This may take longer than I planned.



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Patience can be tough, especially in fantasy football. We want instant production from rookies, but these players often take a while to get going. These youngsters need to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn from their early struggles to break out fully. The third year in the NFL is oftentimes when things […]


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Florio's Free Agency Fantasy Football Winners and Losers!

Free Agency is the most fun week of the NFL offseason. Even when it is not the strongest class, there is never a shortage of excitement. Players changing teams at a rapid rate. It is a week filled with hope that your favorite team will add stars and that those under-the-radar players you love will […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

Josh Downs Fantasy Football Dynasty Outlook (2025)

The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching. For the last few months, dynasty fantasy football gamers have been meticulously studying the incoming rookie class to gain any edge they can on their league mates. While we should be anxiously awaiting our rookie drafts, we must also take time and analyze how veteran players are valued […]


Tyron Smith Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

New York Jets and former long-time Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL for an extended period of time. He's made five All-Pro teams, two with the first team and two with the second team, been selected to eight Pro Bowls, and earned a spot on […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Von Miller Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller, one of the greatest pass-rushers in NFL history, was released by his team on March 9, 2025. He had signed a six-year, $120 million deal with the team in 2022, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old wasn't able to make it to the end of that contract, so he's now looking for […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Staying Put - Impact Players Re-signed: Aaron Jones, Zach Ertz, Jaylen Warren, more

NFL free agency is a frenzy. As football fans, we love to see the movement around the league. It allows us to dream about the possibility of our team signing a fresh player who could make a serious impact. However, one cannot overlook the impact of re-signing significant contributors. While it is not as exciting […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends To Buy in 2025

My friend Josh used to make me listen to the Bring Me The Horizon song "Diamonds Aren't Forever," which begins with the line "We will never sleep, cause sleep is for the weak." That sentiment rings true in fantasy football dynasty leagues as well. You can't get complacent. You can't stop thinking about how to […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football WR Buy or Sell: Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, and Jordan Addison (2025)

The 2024 NFL Draft class had seven first-round wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were selected in the top 10. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette were Day 1 selections. More importantly, Nabers and Thomas finished their rookie seasons as top-7 wide receivers in half-point PPR […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers, Draft Targets: Early 2025 Analysis

One of the biggest factors in winning fantasy football teams is finding middle-to-late-round sleepers. With wide receivers typically carrying the most drafted players of any position, it makes sense that taking multiple stabs at the position in search of hitting multiple-round values is the way to set yourself apart in drafts. For 2025, the draft […]


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2025 NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Biggest Winners and Disappointments at Every Fantasy Football Position

NFL franchises will have an opportunity to reshape their rosters before the draft. Fantasy managers will have a chance to read the tea leaves and make measured strikes against their fantasy football opposition ahead of rookie drafts. Savvy managers will use this period to try to get the best return on some previous investments, as […]