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This week we only have three games combined between Thursday and Friday before our largest betting day of the season so far. We have 60 games on Saturday with 50 of them featuring FBS vs. FBS teams. That's 50 picks for me to make! But first, we have to go over what happened in Week 3 in case you missed any of it.
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. I'm off to a 20-17 start this year with 13 points gained. Let's keep it going!
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 19, and Friday, September 20
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
South Alabama at Appalachian State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has dipped to -7 in spots. I get it. South Alabama laid 87 points on Northwestern State last week and App State almost lost to ECU. The more I think about it, the more that I really don't like that half. Give me the Jaguars and the points.
Stanford at Syracuse (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This looks low, especially when the Cardinal aren't used to playing games east of the Rocky Mountains. I'll take the Orange in the Loud House.
(24) Illinois at (22) Nebraska (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Game in Lincoln or not, this feels high. The Kansas win for the Illini is arguably better than Nebraska beating Colorado. I feel like this game stays close. Give me Illinois. It should remain a one-score game.
San Jose State at Washington State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place and I'm not surprised. The Cougs just won the Apple Cup, but their quarterback is still leading the team in rushing. I like what I've seen from San Jose this year, but are they good enough to play the Cougars within 10 points in Pullman? I really don't know. I'm staying far away from this one. Give me Wazzu, but I have no confidence in it.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow. Let's see how the first full week went!
Arizona State (-1.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Texas State defense played well. So did the offense. It was turnovers that sunk the Bobcats. They turned the ball over three times which helped Arizona State keep up and eventually win.
UNLV at Kansas (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We need to give due props to this UNLV defense, but they aren't going to get very far if Matt Sluka keeps leading the team in rushing.
(20) Arizona at (14) Kansas State (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Wildcats didn't have much of an answer for Tetairoa McMillan (11 receptions, 138 yards) so they just dominated everyone else. Problem solved.
You’re not truly a part of the Big 12 until Kansas State scores a special teams touchdown on you. Welcome, Arizona.
— Clint Chelf (@Cchelf10) September 14, 2024
(4) Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Was there ever any doubt? Wisconsin allowed their most points in a home game since 2008. This really got out of hand because Tyler Van Dyke got hurt, but it wasn't going well for the Badgers before then either.
(13) Oklahoma State (-18.5) at Tulsa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the largest true road win for the Pokes since 2020. And they didn't even need to use Ollie Gordon II. They have succeeded in saving Ollie for conference play. Will it help?
(16) LSU (-6.5) at South Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one is going to sting for SC. They should have won this game. Things started going poorly when LaNorris Sellers went down and they had a couple of questionable calls go against them. I feel bad for the Gamecocks. This is a game they should have won and deserved to win.
A pair of penalties negated two South Carolina pick-6 scores in yesterday’s game against LSU.
Did the Gamecocks get screwed? Or did the referees make the right calls? You be the judge. pic.twitter.com/114oRtm9lq
— SEC Unfiltered (@SECUnfiltered) September 15, 2024
The horse collar penalty wasn't really a horse collar since it was all jersey, but it's still going to get called every time. When the referee sees that out of the corner of his eye, it's an automatic flag, I understand that. The play on the right? Totally bogus. SC rightfully won this game.
Arkansas State at (17) Michigan (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It turns out that even the Michigan defense is fallible when put into terrible situations by the offense. With the way the run game was going, why in the hell was Davis Warren allowed to throw three interceptions? On the bright side, he did complete all 14 pass attempts...
Michigan finally got their first rushing touchdown of the season. They enjoyed it so much that they did it twice more. After this game, Alex Orji deserves his shot. The Davis Warren experiment has to be considered a failure at this point.
Central Michigan at Illinois (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Joe Labas only threw one interception in this one, but he had more incompletions (13) than completions (12). Anyway, progress is progress...
Memphis at Florida State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Florida State is the first team in AP poll history to start a season in top 10 and go 0-3 with all 3 losses to unranked teams.
FSU is 0-3 for only the third time in history -- and the second time under Mike Norvell (2021, 2024).
Memphis wins 20-12; FSU pays 'em $1.3 million. pic.twitter.com/H68dUFUqnW
— Brandon Marcello (@bmarcello) September 14, 2024
The bad news is that FSU can't fire Norvell. They aren't liquid enough with all of the lawsuits involving the ACC Grant of Rights. A buyout of Norvell right now would cost the Seminoles $84.2 million. Yes, these college football coach contracts are way out of hand...
Louisiana Tech at North Carolina State (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This game got away from Louisiana Tech after Grayson McCall got hurt for the Pack. Freshman CJ Bailey played very well in relief of McCall even though he didn't score a touchdown. The offense moved better with him in there.
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Miami (OH): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cincinnati offense is moving better than it has since Desmond Ridder was there.
North Texas at Texas Tech (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas Tech had three touchdown drives under a minute in the second quarter. Mean Joe Greene needs to come back to Denton and teach some defense.
(24) Boston College at (6) Missouri (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I figured that Missouri was going to have to work for this one. This is the third straight win for Missouri over a ranked team. That is their longest such streak since 1975.
Massachusetts at Buffalo (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Easy money. I should have maxed this out.
Coastal Carolina (-18.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a terrible game by Coastal. They will have some big issues if they don't find a way to run the ball. In other news, Temple's run defense also looked pretty good against Oklahoma. Is Temple's defense better than advertised? We'll have to keep an eye on that.
(9) Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Sure...now Oregon shows up. This should have been a night game. Night games in Reser Stadium hit differently.
Ball State at (10) Miami (FL) (-36.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Miami offense...
.@Cameron7Ward is the first Miami quarterback to begin a season with three consecutive 300-yard performances 😳
Here’s his first half numbers ⬇️#GoCanes pic.twitter.com/bvrE4Ms3Wf
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) September 14, 2024
That may not seem like a big deal but think of all of the successful quarterbacks that came from the U. Bernie Kosar, Jim Kelly, Steve Walsh, Vinny Testaverde, Gino Torretta, Ken Dorsey...none of them accomplished what Cam Ward already has.
Tulane at (15) Oklahoma (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I stand by my pick. Oklahoma shouldn't have won by that much. We can't win in the SEC with Jackson Arnold leading the team in rushing.
(18) Notre Dame (-9.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Thomas Hammock giving the Irish pointers after Northern Illinois beat them in South Bend -- and the humility of Marcus Freeman to listen -- paid dividends immediately. This is why Marcus Freeman was the right hire.
Texas A&M (-3.5) at Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yes, the Florida quarterbacks make too many mistakes for this to be a successful team, but some blame has to be laid on the defense. Texas A&M ran for 310 yards in this game. The last time Florida allowed more than 300 rushing yards in a home game was in September of 2018 to Kentucky.
Nevada at Minnesota (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Minnesota defense is still a force.
Washington State at Washington (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really hope that Washington State attracts a few good teams to the Pac-12. That conference deserves to survive and the Cougs deserve a home. This is the kind of win that goes a long way toward bringing the Pac-12 back from the ashes.
West Virginia (-1.5) at Pittsburgh: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Pitt QB Kenny Pickett through three games in 2021 (a season in which he finished as a Heisman finalist):
• 939 passing yards, 10 TDs, 1 INT
• 115 rushing yardsPitt QB Eli Holstein through three games so far this season:
• 939 passing yards, 9 TDs, 2 INT
• 96 rushing yards pic.twitter.com/2ieuL81SgS— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 15, 2024
I'll say it again. Eli Holstein is much better than Kenny Pickett at this point in their careers. I won't go as far as to say that Holstein is Dan Marino, but he is the best QB Pitt has had since Tyler Palko.
Troy at Iowa (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It has been a long time since I have seen a receiver get behind the Iowa secondary the way that Devonte Ross did.
Appalachian State (-1.5) at East Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game was a lot closer than I was expecting. Jake Garcia is looking good in purple.
UAB at Arkansas (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jacob Zeno carved up the Arkansas secondary, yet it took everything Alan Bowman had to beat the Piggies in Stillwater.
(12) Utah (-18.5) at Utah State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Isaac Wilson looked good in place of Cam Rising, but the team is still much better with Rising in there.
Connecticut at Duke (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Duke was fortunate to win this game. The defense should be better than it is.
Virginia Tech (-14.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A monster second half from Kyron Drones saved this pick.
. @KyronDrones hit him with that STIFF arm 💪#ThisIsHome | 📺 on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/5xtXCR5yWR
— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) September 15, 2024
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Say hello to Zuberi Mobley. FAU owns the Shula Bowl.
FAU RB Zuberi Mobley had a day against FIU, rumbling for 134 yards and 3 TD's - including this 72 yard house call early in the 2nd quarter.
Mobley's big performance helped the Owls win their SEVENTH Shula Bowl in a row.@FAUFootball pic.twitter.com/fwtH06Z8BY
— Simon Carroll (@NFLDraftSi) September 16, 2024
UTEP at Liberty (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Liberty was content to run the Miners into submission. That's not conducive to covering spreads.
(5) Mississippi (-22.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is the Ole Miss defense really as good as it looks?
SEC Defensive Rushing Efficiency entering Week 4 *national rankings
Ole Miss #1
Tennessee #2
Kentucky #6
Oklahoma #9
Arkansas #13
Texas #15
Missouri #21
Alabama #30
Vanderbilt #34
Auburn #42
Georgia #50
Texas A&M #57
South Carolina #66
Miss State #76
Florida #87
LSU #99— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 16, 2024
I realize that they haven't played a really good team yet, but this is still impressive.
UTSA at (2) Texas (-35.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
...and Texas did this with the projected first-overall pick of the 2025 Draft behind their back...
Arch Manning is not a Manning running like this pic.twitter.com/6csepHgkaF
— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) September 15, 2024
I've won more money (points) on Texas this year than any other team. I hate them since they're my team's rivals, but I'm no dummy. I realize how good this team is.
Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Georgia State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well, it was fun while it lasted, Vanderbilt.
Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was probably the best game of the weekend. It's a tough loss for the Gamecocks, but it was quite a comeback after trailing 31-20 heading into the fourth quarter.
Kennesaw State at San Jose State (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I almost feel dirty taking these winnings. San Jose State covered, but this was a sloppy game on offense. Turnovers, penalties...if it weren't for Nick Nash, this team would be sunk.
Western Kentucky (-7.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Nicholas Vattiato threw for 456 yards and the Blue Raiders still lost by 28 at home...
Hawaii at Sam Houston (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is not a game that Sam Houston would have won last year. This team is getting better.
South Florida (-11.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
South Florida should move to the SEC before Florida State does. I'm not joking.
(1) Georgia (-23.5) at Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Georgia was lucky to escape Lexington with a win. This is a game that Kentucky could have won.
New Mexico at Auburn (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was sweating this one. There is no way on God's green earth that Payton Thorne hits this pass. Hank Brown makes this offense different. He can utilize the playmakers that Hugh Freeze brought in through the portal in the last two years.
Can we take a moment to appreciate the placement of this pass from Hank Brown to KeAndre Lambert-Smith…
Hit KLS perfectly in stride 🎯 pic.twitter.com/UENbCkPae2
— Taylor Korn (@TaylorKornTNR) September 15, 2024
Toledo at Mississippi State (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo has taken a running-back-by-committee approach. It's unusual for them, but it is working so far.
Indiana (-3.5) at UCLA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I expected Indiana to win. I didn't expect the Hoosiers to blow UCLA off their own field.
Before Cignetti ➡️ With Cignetti@IndianaFootball's offense has been rolling so far this season 😤#B1GFootball x #B1GToday pic.twitter.com/Q4SXAFRBWg
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 17, 2024
Air Force at Baylor (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm nailing those one-pointers this week...
Colorado (-7.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
For all of the trash-talking during last year's game, in the offseason (on Colorado State's part), and before kickoff, this was an uneventful game. My biggest takeaway is that Colorado looked very sloppy in this game. Shedeur Sanders wasn't as accurate as usual and the Colorado receivers weren't as great catching passes.
Central Florida at TCU (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I won't say this was easy money because I was sweating it the whole time. TCU led for most of this game. This is the kind of game that UCF has lost the last couple of seasons. They showed resolve coming back in this one on the road.
Kent State at (7) Tennessee (-49.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tennessee and Ole Miss are the only offenses I trust to cover these mammoth spreads. They don't let up. Tennessee did swap in second and third-stringers, but as they should have done, they still ran the offense.
Maryland (-2.5) at Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Here’s where @playboytaishar ranks nationally:
• 447 yds (3rd)
• 27 rec (4th)
• 3 TD’s (T-3rd)All tops in B1G. Monster season. @CoachLocks isn’t surprised. Tai always had the talent. Now he’s doing the work!
He’s also happy Tai stayed when others came calling! #OneMaryland pic.twitter.com/NeHMlE4T81
— One Maryland NIL (@OneMarylandNIL) September 18, 2024
Tai Felton is having a breakout year. The real story of this game was the mistakes that Maryland forced Anthony Colandrea into. He's still young, but this Maryland defense looks tougher than it has in years.
Rice at Houston (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Houston more than tripled this line. This was my second-easiest bet of the season (Texas-Michigan being the easiest).
BYU (-10.5) at Wyoming: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So...can we trade Wyoming to the FCS for Idaho?
San Diego State at California (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I never thought I would say this, but the Aztecs are a mess on both sides of the ball.
New Mexico State at Fresno State (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is not the same New Mexico State team without Jerry Kill guiding the team.
College Football Betting Season Results
I hit the last 10 games on Saturday. It's been a while since I've had a 10-game streak, so it feels good! That strong finish led me to a 32-20 week, one of my best in a while. That leaves me at 79-59 on the season. I'm sitting at 57.2% right now, so I'm a little bit ahead of schedule. Let's see how many points we gained!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-0 (10-7) = 3
2. 9-11 (30-24) = 12
3. 13-5 (26-18) = 24
4. 3-3 (6-7) = -4
5. 2-1 (8-4) = 20
I'm up 55 points on the season through three weeks. I'm really happy with that! I can't tell you exactly how much I am up overall because in updating my spreadsheet for all past seasons, I found some "bookkeeping errors" back in 2015 and 2016. I'll get those updated sometime soon so we know exactly where I stand.
However, I am having issues finding all of my 2019 and 2020 articles. This may take longer than I planned.
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