RADIO
We have a light pre-weekend snack of two games each on Thursday and Friday. Thursday threw a FBS vs. FCS game in there, so I have three total picks to make before Saturday's monster (47 games). We will also recap what happened in Week 2 before moving on to Week 3.
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. I'm off to a 20-17 start this year with 13 points gained. Let's keep it going!
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CFB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 12, and Friday, September 13
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Arizona State (-1.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. I've seen the Bobcats favored by a couple of points in spots. However you feel like betting on this, shop around. You'll find it. This feels like a game the Bobcats can win. Jordan McCloud is a difference-maker.
UNLV at Kansas (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV handled a Houston team that almost beat Oklahoma. Kansas got bullied by Illinois in Champaign last week. The turnovers are a new thing for Kansas. UNLV almost beat them in Vegas last year. I think it stays close here as well. Give me the Rebels.
(20) Arizona at (14) Kansas State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Wildcats have absolutely no answer for Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona straight up!
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow. Let's see how the first full week went!
BYU at SMU (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It feels like this two-quarterback thing is killing the confidence of Preston Stone. I'm not saying that Kevin Jennings doesn't deserve his shot...he has clearly earned it...but we are witnessing the unintended consequence of a two-quarterback system. SMU is moving on to Jennings full time and it's easy to see why.
The bad part about this is Preston Stone was looking like a guy who was going to get drafted in 2025 after his 2023 season. This is devastating for him.
Duke at Northwestern (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Wildcats had plenty of chances to win this. Maalik Murphy is showing what he never quite did at Texas last year when Quinn Ewers was hurt. He took control of this game in overtime.
(3) Texas (-7.5) at (10) Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is how you make a statement. This was the largest road win by the Longhorns against a top-10 team in 45 years.
Texas pulled out the turnover sword stuck with 3 deflated footballs for the 3 turnovers today vs Michigan ??️? pic.twitter.com/CukvUQRXYU
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 7, 2024
Bowling Green at (8) Penn State (-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What a letdown for the Nittany Lions, but it wasn't the fault of the offense. The defense couldn't handle Harold Fannin Jr.
Arkansas at (16) Oklahoma State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was all luck. A lot of things needed to go right to cash out this bet. The biggest takeaway from this was how well the Arkansas defense stopped the run. They didn't last year! Ja'Quinden Jackson stole the show in this game and he wasn't nearly at full strength for the last half of the fourth quarter and overtime.
(17) Kansas State (-9.5) vs. Tulane: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kansas State avoids the upset with a pick to end the game ?⚪️
pic.twitter.com/93SV4ssEbh— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) September 7, 2024
The sad part about this is that Tulane had a touchdown called back two plays before on a bogus offensive pass interference call. Offensive PI is wildly under-called in both leagues, but even I think that wasn't pass interference. Unfortunately, this wasn't the worst officiating crew of the weekend...
(23) Georgia Tech (-2.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a very entertaining game. Oronde Gadsden II is flying up draft boards and Kyle McCord is flourishing under Fran Brown. Make no mistake about it...this is a big win for the Orange. This is like the 2017 Clemson win was for Dino Babers.
Akron at Rutgers (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If running backs were taken in the first round anymore, Kyle Monangai would be one of them.
Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai went OFF today ?
⭐️ 27 carries
⭐️ 208 yards
⭐️ 3 TDsThis RB class is LOADED. pic.twitter.com/uxpFix1Cg3
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) September 7, 2024
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a tough one to swallow for Cincinnati. They were in control of this game for most of it. Eli Holstein looked the part once again. He's better than golden boy Kenny Pickett was at this point in his career.
Troy at Memphis (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is a shift in this Memphis offense. They are running the ball a lot more. Maybe they just don't want to show anything to former coach Mike Norvell before this weekend's tilt in Tallahassee.
Army at Florida Atlantic (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Army pulled off the fake field goal on 4th & 12
The beautiful game
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 7, 2024
It's going to be that kind of season for Army, isn't it?
Northern Illinois at (5) Notre Dame (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this was too many, but I don't think anyone expected an outright win. This was a superb game, especially on defense, for the Huskies. The MAC gets another huge win against a Power-4 team.
Baylor at (11) Utah (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cameron Rising getting hurt (again) derailed the Utah offense. They were well on the way to a cover (up 23-3) before Rising went down.
Iowa State at (21) Iowa (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How did I know Iowa State was taking home the CyHawk? Simple. The road team has now won five consecutive games in this series.
Jacksonville State at Louisville (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Tyler Shough can stay healthy, Louisville could have their best season since Lamar Jackson was there.
California at Auburn (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can take the quarterback out of the Big Ten (18), but you can't take the Big Ten (18) out of the quarterback.
Just a reminder if any Auburn fan wants to give Payton Thorne another chance…
(Hope this ruined your Monday like it did mine ) ? pic.twitter.com/eHU5EKC552
— Ace ? (@AceWDE) September 9, 2024
Oh, and while we're at it, I watch more college football than any human should. This was the worst officiating I've seen in a game in at least two years. They still can't hold a candle to those jokers in the NFL though...
South Carolina at Kentucky (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The South Carolina defense dominated this game, which is exactly what you would expect from a Beamer. Brock Vandagriff was so bad that he made Gavin Wimsatt look good (and has some Kentucky fans calling for the switch).
Michigan State at Maryland (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a sloppy game on both sides, but Aidan Chiles made more good plays than sloppy ones...but just barely.
Eastern Michigan at Washington (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Washington dominated the last 45 minutes of the game and still didn't cover.
Massachusetts at Toledo (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Forgive me...it has been a minute since Toledo hasn't had a good running back. If Toledo had played a team with a pulse, they would have been annihilated here. Tucker Gleason was just 8-of-23 passing (but three touchdowns...go figure) and led the team in rushing with 34 yards. Yikes.
Charlotte at North Carolina (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It took the Tar Heels some time to pull away here, and no, it wasn't Conner Harrell's fault.
Temple at Navy (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know what I was so afraid of...
UTSA at Texas State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a fun rivalry and the Bobcats finally got their first win since both programs moved to FBS. In UTSA's five wins, they won by a combined 51 points. The Bobcats got 39 of those back thanks to Jordan McCloud and a swarming defense.
Middle Tennessee State at (6) Mississippi (-42.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Unlike many teams that face spreads like this, Ole Miss is built to cover them.
Marshall at Virginia Tech (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was another clunker for Kyron Drones. Bhayshul Tuten picked up the slack.
Central Michigan (-5.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Panthers picked off Joe Labas five times! The offense didn't even have to do much in this one. The defense was on point.
East Carolina at Old Dominion (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Former South Carolina quarterback Jake Garcia threw four interceptions and the Monarchs still lost. Jerks.
South Alabama (-2.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This isn't some kind of flex for Ohio. Anthony Tyus III was held in check by the Jags, who were missing their starting QB and starting RB. The Bobcats were fortunate to escape in this one.
Sam Houston at Central Florida (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
R.J. Harvey would like to throw his hat in the ring for best RB in this draft class.
Through 2 games, RJ Harvey is 8th in the nation in rushing yards and 2nd in the nation in rushing touchdowns
He’s currently on pace for a 1,600-yard season
— Christian Simmons (@ByCASimmons) September 8, 2024
South Florida at (4) Alabama (-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
USF only trailed by one point at the end of the third quarter. They lost control in the fourth, but it was another sluggish game for Bama against the Bulls.
Buffalo at (9) Missouri (-34.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's a good thing the Missouri defense pitched a shutout...
(19) Kansas (-4.5) at Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Jalon Daniels had arguably the worst game of his college career. Oh, and it's nice that a team finally brought Zakhari Franklin back to relevance. I enjoyed watching him at UTSA.
Virginia at Wake Forest (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Hank Bachmeier threw for 403 yards on this defense. That should be a big concern for Virginia. I like their offense, but the defense can't have games like his and have Virginia still compete in the ACC.
Louisiana (-13.5) at Kennesaw State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kennesaw is more Sam Houston than Jacksonville State. That's okay. They'll get better.
San Jose State at Air Force (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The San Jose State defense looked strong in this one. This Emmett Brown is not a doctor and he can't go back in time, but the sophomore can play quarterback.
Georgia Southern at Nevada (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Brendon Lewis wasn't the problem for Nevada. The lack of a run game -- and the ball security from the backs -- was.
Tulsa at Arkansas State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Tulsa has a passing game again, look out. The defense is still kind of a mess though.
UAB (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wait...what? Where did that come from? This was a statement by the Warhawks.
Western Michigan at (2) Ohio State (-37.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I mean...I watched the game because I'm a junkie, but that doesn't mean it was entertaining...
(14) Tennessee (-9.5) at (24) North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This Tennessee offense could rival The Greatest Show On Turf Rams teams from the late 90s - early 00s.
Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a statement for Nebraska. Are they back? Maybe. They're closer than they have been since the Bo Pelini era.
Houston at (15) Oklahoma (-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't even know where to start. Houston got dominated by UNLV at home. Here, the Oklahoma offense was a mess. There was no flow to the game at all. We were damn lucky to win this.
There were a lot of missed passes from Jackson Arnold. He was inefficient at best. Speaking of inefficient...I haven't seen an Oklahoma run game struggle like this since the mid-90s. There's no excuse for Gavin Sawchuk only carrying the ball four times. Look at what he did last year! Arnold doesn't need 11 carries to Sawchuk's four.
I want to give Oklahoma a pass, but why? The offensive line is a disaster and all of this talent that we are supposed to have on offense either isn't there or doesn't have a chance due to poor line play. It's going to be a long season for Oklahoma...and their fans.
Appalachian State at (25) Clemson (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Well...that's one way to make a statement. This was easily the best game of Cade Klubnik's career. Appalachian isn't nearly as bad as Clemson made them look here. The Tigers may have turned a corner.
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik vs App State:
? 24/26
? 378 YDS
? 7 Total TDS
? 0 INTSAll in the First Half? pic.twitter.com/BQYftS4nLQ
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 8, 2024
Boise State at (7) Oregon (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oregon is not that team this year...but Ashton Jeanty is THAT DUDE!
#RB1 Ashton Jeanty currently leads the FBS in...
Rushing yards: 459
Rushing TDs: 9
Forced missed tackles: 22 pic.twitter.com/uRJyGNMhmG— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 9, 2024
Texas Tech at Washington State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
John Mateer ran for 197 yards in this one. I didn't see that coming. Wazzu mopping the field with Tech? I did see that one...
Liberty (-22.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really should have known better. That's why I have one-point bets, I guess...
Mississippi State at Arizona State (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cam Skattebo ravaged the Bulldogs' run D. Wow!
Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo against Mississippi State:
• 33 Carries
• 262 Rush Yards
• 7.9 YPC• 3 Catches
• 35 Receiving YardsABSOLUTE DAWG ?? pic.twitter.com/URg0NFP4dI
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 8, 2024
Oregon State (-5.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was defensive dominance by the Beavers.
Utah State at (13) USC (-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the first time USC shut out an opponent since they blanked their crosstown rival in 2011.
College Football Betting Season Results
I did a little better than last week, finishing 27-22 against the spread. That puts me at 47-39 on the season. The early part of the season is often the hardest, so I'm happy to be above .500 so far. That also means I should be making money.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-3 (5-7) = -2
2. 13-7 (21-13) = 16
3. 7-9 (13-13) = 0
4. 1-2 (3-4) = -4
5. 3-1 (6-3) = 15
I'm up 25 points after just over two weeks. I'm really happy with that! I can't tell you exactly how much I am up overall because in updating my spreadsheet for all past seasons, I found some "bookkeeping errors" back in 2015 and 2016. I'll get those updated sometime soon so we know exactly where I stand.
However, I am having issues finding all of my 2019 and 2020 articles. This may take longer than I planned.
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