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It was another fun week in the last great college football season. The USC luck is over. Bedlam is over. The Gamecock Bowl that no one knew we needed is over. So is Florida's dominance over Arkansas in Gainesville. It was the end of some eras (Bedlam and Alex Grinch). One was also sustained. The Army-Navy game will still decide the Commander-In-Chief trophy thanks to Army beating a ranked team for the first time since 1972.
We have four more games before the weekend this week. Tuesday's and Wednesday's picks were in the DFS articles. That may be the case going forward with ESPN blessing us with so many mid-week games between the Fun Belt, Conference USA, and MACtion. Hey, I'm not complaining. Any weekday with college football on is a gift in my book!
Only Army is slumming on the FCS circuit this week, but as we mentioned before, they have earned it.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 11 (11/9-10/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Virginia at (11) Louisville (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has jumped four points and it wouldn't surprise me if it jumps more. I feel better about it at just a shade under three touchdowns. I'm taking Louisville, but don't go nuts.
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know that Chandler Fields isn't your typical third-stringer. Frank Gore Jr. isn't your typical running back either. Just because Fields was listed as third string doesn't mean that he doesn't have valuable experience. That said, Southern Miss is playing a lot better right now. I feel good about taking them not to get covered here.
North Texas at SMU (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know...this feels a bit high. I trust the SMU offense more than I used to, but Chandler Rogers has the North Texas offense playing well. This feels like a game that goes over 67.5. I feel better about that than a spread bet. Give me UNT.
Wyoming at UNLV (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is warranted. It feels just a bit high. I'll take Wyoming.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the bad along with the good? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. I found most of my old articles and have the points system all the way back to 2015. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Northern Illinois (-4.5) at Central Michigan: MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
The NIU run defense was roughed up in this one.
Buffalo at Toledo (-15.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
I told you Peny Boone was for real. I should have told myself also...
Ball State at Bowling Green (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 4
The logic was right. If the Falcons could have cracked 30 points, they would have covered.
Kent State at Akron (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
My first right pick of the week took a miracle comeback by Akron. Someone get Jeff Undercuffler a Turnover Tire!
Now we're talking!
TCU at Texas Tech (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Red Raiders have a bad habit of making games that shouldn't be interesting...interesting.
Wake Forest at Duke (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ugly wins still count, but they don't do much for covers...
South Alabama at Troy (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Troy is keeping me afloat. Too bad I can only bet five points on them here.
Boston College at Syracuse (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was an ugly, ugly game. Syracuse was ranked at one point this season. Now they're under .500...
Colorado State at Wyoming (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A couple of costly errors by Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi hurt this one.
(1) Ohio State (-18.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rutgers was up at halftime. The Buckeyes still found a way to cover by that half.
(23) Kansas State at (7) Texas (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Wildcats have no one to blame but themselves. A missed extra point (and chip-shot field goal) in the fourth quarter let this get into overtime in the first place. They go for the win on fourth down instead of sending it into a second overtime. I really don't agree with that call...especially after the job the defense did on Texas in the first overtime.
Texas A&M at (10) Mississippi (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Ole Miss had several chances to pull away in this one but wouldn't do it.
(15) Notre Dame (-3.5) at Clemson: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yes, that about sums it up.
Connecticut at (17) Tennessee (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yikes. I hope Tennessee had fun in this one. It won't get any easier.
Arkansas at Florida (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders led the Piggies to their first-ever win in the Swamp. Graham Mertz is back, ladies and gentlemen!
Wisconsin (-9.5) at Indiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It only took Wisconsin being down their top three running backs for Indiana to have a chance. This was an ugly win at its ugliest, but boy did Tom Allen need this.
Nebraska (-2.5) at Michigan State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Scott Frost was Matt Ruhle for Halloween. That's the only way to explain this.
Jacksonville State at South Carolina (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jacksonville State came out and played a good game. Too many late turnovers made this look worse for Jacksonville State. They led with 17 minutes left.
Arizona State at (18) Utah (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow...where was that kind of fire against Oregon?
Georgia Tech at Virginia (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the good kind of Wreck for Tech. Even Tony Muskett wouldn't have helped the Cavs here.
Navy (-6.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
E.J. Warner. See Navy? That's what a quarterback looks like.
Army at Air Force (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How about Army winning by 20 on an 18.5-point spread? Yeah, I didn't see that coming either.
Florida Atlantic (-2.5) at UAB: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was quietly one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. You think Baylor still wishes they had Jacob Zeno yet?
UTSA (-7.5) at North Texas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is a reason why this was a tough decision. What a fun one and Frank Harris has the Roadrunners bowling again.
South Florida at Memphis (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
109 combined points and Memphis still didn't cover. It was that kind of week. The legend of Byrum Brown continues to grow.
Louisiana (-9.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who knew that Ben Wooldridge was so important to this team?
(12) Missouri at (2) Georgia (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Just like last year, the Tigers exchanged body blows with the champs until the final round.
(4) Florida State (-21,5) at Pittsburgh: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
FSU got bored and the Pitt defense isn't the problem.
(9) Oklahoma (-5.5) at (22) Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yeah, this one stings. Oklahoma had many chances to win this game. Ollie Gordon was hobbled in this game and still hit triple digits. The conspiracy theories about the conference not wanting the Sooners in the Conference Championship Game doesn't have legs because the Big 12(14) would do the same things to Texas, which has not happened.
Many factors are to blame, but not having Danny Stutsman was key. Not knowing how to call the offense to hold a lead doesn't help either. Oklahoma is playing not to lose right now and is losing because of it. Sometimes things really are that simple.
I'm not going to come on here and be sore and say Oklahoma State didn't deserve to win. They played well enough to win and they did. It could have gone either way, but Oklahoma made too many mistakes to allow them to grab a meaningful lead.
(11) Penn State (-8.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have had a lot more confidence in this one.
Virginia Tech at (13) Louisville (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Louisville defense has been good all season. The offense has finally caught up.
(24)Tulane (-16.5) at East Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There was a reason that I left this alone.
Illinois at Minnesota (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Minnesota has become Nebraska. It doesn't matter how many good running backs you have if your quarterback can consistently throw the ball.
Iowa (-5.5) at Northwestern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was scoreless at halftime to the surprise of absolutely no one. Everyone is used to low-scoring games at Wrigley Field. Iowa wins ugly...again...
Houston at Baylor (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What a crazy game! And yes, I knew better...
Central Florida (-3.5) at Cincinnati: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincy didn't win, but UCF couldn't keep the cover either.
James Madison (-5.5) at Georgia State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Dukes appear to be a team that I can rely on. I like that quality in a team.
Coastal Carolina (-1.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There are a lot of 'I knew better' laments this week. The Monarchs were in control of this game until the fourth quarter when the Coastal run game took over.
Auburn (-12.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Auburn tried to blow this cover. They really did.
Charlotte at Tulsa (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This says a lot more about the state of Tulsa football than Charlotte.
Louisiana-Monroe at Southern Mississippi (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There is no doubt in my mind that the Eagles would be a bowl team had they let Frank Gore Jr. loose earlier in the season.
Hawaii at Nevada (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
An outright loss to Hawaii, who is notoriously terrible on the mainland, is an epic way to end a winning streak that ended a losing streak. Only in Reno...
Georgia Southern (-2.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Never bet against the Bobcats at home.
California at (6) Oregon (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
...or not. The Ducks are the best team in the Pac, and you all know what a big fan of Washington I am.
Louisiana Tech at Liberty (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Liberty and JMU really need to meet in a bowl game. I'm telling you that it would be an epic game.
Middle Tennessee State at New Mexico State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jerry Kill has the Aggies bowling for the second consecutive year. Think he has room for another tattoo?
Marshall at Appalachian State (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In true App State fashion, they come back the next week and destroy a good team. I can't even with these guys!
UNLV (-10.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew I should have maxed this.
(21) Kansas at Iowa State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is money to be made on Kansas since most people betting these games just see Jalon Daniels is out and go against the Jayhawks. This team can be good without him this year. That wasn't true last year. The growth of Jason Bean is impressive.
BYU at West Virginia (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I shouldn't have let the absence of Slovis lower my bet. This was easy money.
Utah State (-2.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I give up on the Aztecs.
Purdue at (3) Michigan (-32.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess they had to let off the gas so it wasn't obvious...
(5) Washington (-2.5) at (20) USC: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Trojans are going to have to spend money on a defense now, but not on the players...on the coordinator. Alex Grinch should have been fired a while ago, honestly. It has been obvious for six weeks now that this unit wasn't going to get any better if nothing changed.
Kentucky (-3.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Devin Leary was a game manager only in this one. The defense did the heavy lifting.
SMU (-11.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The SMU offense is good and fun. The defense is almost the polar opposite. A fast start prevented this from being an outright loss.
(14) LSU at (8) Alabama (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's Nick Saban. This is what he does. This is Jalen Milroe. This is what he does.
Miami (FL) (-4.5) at North Carolina State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was by far the worst game the Miami offense has played this season.
Western Kentucky (-8.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I never dreamed that half would get me...
Stanford at Washington State (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As with most things this week, my instinct was right. Vacation brain talked me out of it...
(16) Oregon State (-13.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado fighting the in fourth quarter bailed me out.
Boise State at Fresno State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Fresno offense is fun. The defense in an adventure. Who do they think they are, an Arizona team?
(19) UCLA (-2.5) at Arizona: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Good thing I flipped once I heard Nick Fifita was still starting.
College Football Betting Season Results
I got too cute this week and outsmarted myself. The 26-34 mark is disappointing enough on its own. So is falling back under .500 at 272-275. What's worse is going 1-4 on five-point bets. I know I lost points this week. The only question is how many?
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-4 (22-33) = -11
2. 12-12 (105-105) = 0
3. 9-10 (89-89) = 0
4. 4-4 (33-33) = 0
5. 1-4 (22-15) = 35
I lost 20 points this week, but am still above water this season at 24 points. My grand total is still pending, but the good news is that I have recovered all articles since 2015 when I started the points system. My record-keeping wasn't as good then as it is now, so I'm fixing it as I go along. You can find updates in the other tabs on my spreadsheet at the top.
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