RADIO
We are up to 42 games on Saturday despite a couple of SEC teams snacking on cupcakes this week. This is our busiest week in the last three weeks and I need a get-right week like Penn State had last week.
Week 11 was brutal. I only got 18 of 50 picks right and lost my most betting points in a week in 10 years (maybe...the jury is still out on the 2019-20 missing articles). I'm going to do better this week if I have to will it into existence!
These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 12 (11/16/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. It's not a top-5. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game, average them out at all the Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(2) Ohio State (-28.5) vs. Northwestern at Chicago
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Northwestern allowed 40 points to Iowa two weeks ago, and they're not hitting double figures against the Ohio State defense. Give me the Buckeyes.
(3) Texas (-12.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arkansas has been a spread buster for much of the season, but not in the last two home games. This line is down, but I don't see Arkansas breaking this Texas defense. I'll take the Longhorns in this old SWC rivalry.
Utah at (17) Colorado (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Utah looked a lot better with Brandon Rose as the quarterback. Utah has not allowed more than 27 points in a game all season, and the Utes should get a couple of touchdowns on the Colorado defense. This feels high. Give me Utah.
UPDATE: Brandon Rose is OUT for Utah. I'm upping the bet and flipping to Colorado.
(20) Clemson (-11.5) at Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Pitt probably wouldn't lose to the Hoos if Eli Holstein were able to finish the game.
Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi said today that starting quarterback Eli Holstein hasn’t been cleared after suffering a head injury last weekend and would be a gametime decision for Saturday’s game against Clemson. Backup Nate Yarnell took first team reps this week.
— stephen thompson (@stephenethom) November 14, 2024
This is not a good sign if Holstein still hasn't been cleared as of yesterday afternoon. If Holstein plays, this could be a different story. If Nate Yarnell plays, Clemson destroys Pitt. That's how I'm picking right now. If Holstein plays, I'm switching to Pitt and lowering the bet to two points.
(25) Tulane (-6.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I can't bet against the Tulane offense right now. I'm still riding the Wave!
Liberty (-14.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not a fan of the hook, but I expected the line to be at least a touchdown higher than this. I feel good about Liberty here. UMass hasn't lost by less than two touchdowns since the end of September.
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Love the Hilltopper offense, but I can't trust that defense. WKU didn't even beat New Mexico State by this. Give me the Bulldogs.
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Monroe got smacked by Texas State last week, but Auburn hasn't even scored more than 24 points since September 14. This feels like it's too high. Give me Monroe. I don't expect a win, but it should stay within 17-21 points.
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Coastal beating App State was a fluke. Give me Marshall.
Florida International at Jacksonville State (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We have two of the best players outside of the Power 4 in this game in Jacksonville RB Tre Stewart and FIU WR Eric Rivers. I expect both to play well, but Jacksonville State to pull away and cover.
Florida Atlantic at Temple (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What am I missing here? FAU has lost four in a row, but all four were to solid teams -- North Texas, South Florida, UTSA, and East Carolina. I still like Cam Fancher and the Owls outright.
Michigan State at Illinois (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The luster has worn off of Illinois, but they are still a far better team than Michigan State. Illinois by double digits!
Syracuse at California (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I can't get the Orange right this year. I'm 1-7 picking Syracuse and not much better (3-5) picking Cal. I'm a big fan of Fernando Mendoza and Jaydn Ott. I'll take Cal.
Week 1️⃣1️⃣ #ManningAward ?? ?? ??? ????
? Fernando Mendoza, California
? 40-of-56, 436 total yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, QBR: 63.1 pic.twitter.com/afjVHfDtup
— Manning Award (@ManningAward) November 13, 2024
Sam Houston (-16.5) at Kennesaw State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kennesaw State announced that architect of the program and head coach Brian Bohannon has stepped down - but, he says he was fired.
What a communications fumble. Some lucky FCS school (UNI?) is going to get a winner. pic.twitter.com/lDYLrtsByW
— CFBSelect.com (@CfbSelect) November 11, 2024
This is one of the dumbest firings in the history of coaches being fired. The Owls are in their first year of FBS. What did Kennesaw expect? What James Madison and Jacksonville State did in their first seasons was unprecedented. It should not be expected! I really liked Brian Bohannon. This team had heart. Just look at the Liberty game.
Now, the Owls have alienated most fans, and a mass exodus of players has begun. I hope they don't win another game for the next decade. The Kennesaw brass deserves whatever bad things come to them. Some teams would be happy to have Bohannon as their coach. Give me Sam Houston!
Hawaii (-2.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii is going to do it to me again, aren't they? The defense is better, but how are they going to stop Jalen Royals? They aren't! Give me the Aggies!
(4) Penn State (-28.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Let's see...Penn State almost covered Washington by this, and the Huskies are the better team. I'll take Penn State.
Virginia at (8) Notre Dame (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Notre Dame is demolishing the bottom of the ACC. Is Virginia at the bottom of the ACC? I kind of doubt it. Irish win, but don't cover.
Boston College at (14) SMU (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this feels high. I like SMU to win the game, but not by 20. Give me BC and the points.
(19) Louisville (-20.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wake Forest is the only team to beat the Cardinal by less than 21 points since Stanford offed Syracuse on September 20. Louisville rolls!
(22) LSU (-3.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
DJ Lagway and Elijhah Badger have both been cleared to play this Saturday vs. #22 LSU after recovering from injuries ??
?https://t.co/5czrmzFYsA pic.twitter.com/6zB4sltAXc
— Florida NIL Store (@UFNILStore) November 15, 2024
The Tigers can take their bootleg tiger back to Florida with them. LSU is going to lose this game. Give me Florida!
Oregon State (-3.5) at Air Force
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't think so. Oregon State lost outright to San Jose State...by double figures...last week. Give me Air Force!
South Florida (-2.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
South Florida QB Byrum Brown: Should return vs. Charlotte in Week 12 https://t.co/E3y9VdzWk9
— Unabated College Football (@Unabated_CFB) November 14, 2024
Byrum Brown is expected to return, but is USF smart enough to play him? They damn well better be because I'm betting the Bulls!
Nebraska at USC (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava is taking over at quarterback for the Trojans. Cool! Lincoln Riley broke another one. Give me Nebraska.
Baylor (-1.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
See? I told you Pick Em people that I wasn't crazy. I still agree with Vegas. Give me Baylor.
Troy at Georgia Southern (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Eagles just took out South Alabama in Mobile. They can handle Troy at home.
James Madison (-2.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alright, JMU, don't fail me now! Give me the Dukes.
(23) Missouri at (21) South Carolina (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas says piss on your rankings. South Carolina takes the Mayor's Cup for the first time in seven years! Can they really win this by two touchdowns, though? Probably. The real USC is the best three-loss team in the country. I'll take the Gamecocks.
Arkansas State at Georgia State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line opened at even, but bettors have gone bonkers on the Panthers (as they should). I don't like the hook, but it's not that much of a deterrent. I still like GSU.
Rutgers at Maryland (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
What in the world...? Where is this Maryland love coming from? Rutgers just beat Minnesota without Kyle Monangai. It sounds like Monangai will play this week, but even if he doesn't, I like Rutgers outright.
(13) Boise State (-14.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Spartans are allowing 151.22 rushing yards per game. That average is about to go up. Give me Boise.
Arizona State at (16) Kansas State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cam Skattebo is headed back to the field https://t.co/TuKse7ChXX #EstrellaPublishing pic.twitter.com/eiiZaauheV
— Estrella Publishing (@EstrellaPublish) November 14, 2024
Skattebo was seen trying to convince coach Kenny Dillingham to put him in during the second half of the UCF game. The human wrecking ball is back for the game in the Little Apple. I think this stays a one-score game. Give me the Fun Devils!
South Alabama at Louisiana (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cajuns are the class of the Fun Belt, but this still makes me nervous. Give me the Swamp Things.
Southern Mississippi at Texas State (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Considering that the Bobcats covered Monroe by this, it feels like easy money. Give me Texas State.
(1) Oregon (-13.5) at Wisconsin
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels like a good speed for the Ducks. They'll Jump Around with the Badgers and their fans before sealing the cover.
(7) Tennessee at (12) Georgia (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
.@ClowESPN said on @JoshandSwain that he expects Nico Iamaleava to play at Georgia unless there’s a setback in the next couple of days — noting the importance of following protocol for head injuries.
“He’s certainly on track to play and I think he will play,” Low said.
— Josh Ward (@Josh_Ward) November 14, 2024
The line is back on the rise since Nico Iamaleava is expected to play, but this is still too many. I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee wins outright. Give me the Vols and the points. If you are on the Tennessee side, I would take the line now before the official announcement if you believe Chris Low is right. Once the official announcement is made, this line will drop to -7 or lower.
New Mexico State at (15) Texas A&M (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really hate lines like this. We just hope no one gets hurt, and if you decide to bet on this game, you are even more sick than I am. Give me the Aggies, but I wouldn't bet this with your money. I guess I can't pull a fast one you guys. Which Aggies? The Texas ones.
Wake Forest at North Carolina (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Carolina has turned a corner. Regardless, there's no reason they aren't 10 points better than Wake. Give me the Heels.
Cincinnati at Iowa State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cyclones are in danger of completely falling apart. I don't think they are there yet, but I'm nervous enough to lower the bet.
UAB at Memphis (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. Vegas doesn't know what to do with this, but I do. Give me UAB and the points. The Memphis defense is still a problem.
(18) Washington State (-10.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This still feels too high. New Mexico can score. Devon Dampier is basically John Mateer. I'll take the Lobos.
Kansas at (6) BYU (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has tanked, and it's easy to see why. The Jayhawks are playing like everyone thought they would in September. I'll take BYU, but I'm going light on this game. I have a feeling Kansas might win.
San Diego State at UNLV (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UNLV couldn't cover Hawaii last week, but SDSU lost to New Mexico. I'm taking the Aztecs, but I'm not touching this one. There are better spots.
I ended up with five minimum bets and 24 two-point bets. I'm probably a little nervous after last week. I do have five four-pointers and three max bets, so I'm not that much of a chicken. 16 three-point bets is where I'm trying to make an impact.
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