RADIO
Tomorrow! Tomorrow! I love betting on college football. Tomorrow! It's only a day away! We are all out of FBS vs. FCS matchups until Cupcake Week in the SEC. Our Saturday is a bit lighter with only 43 games on Saturday this week, but I'll gladly take the few games we get in the middle of the week.
Those will become more plentiful starting next week! Who needs MACtion when you have the Fun Belt? They are offering several mid-week games in October to keep us occupied. Hey, the more games on TV, the better! It's better than having to hunt them down on the internet.
I'm off to a good start so far. I am 141-103 picking every game this year. Let's keep it going!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 6 (10/5/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
UCLA at (7) Penn State (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Now we get to see how happy these West Coast teams are to be joining a conference with road games on the East Coast. The noon kickoff is like 9 a.m. in L.A. That's bound to affect the players. Will it affect them enough to lose to Penn State by four touchdowns? With as much of a mess as UCLA has been, probably.
(9) Missouri at (25) Texas A&M (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Conner Wiegman saga continues, but Missouri has been preparing for the game as if Marcel Reed will start. Does Eli Drinkwitz secretly hope the Aggies start Weigman? Would you blame him if he did? I still like Missouri, but the uncertainty at QB for A&M might keep me from betting on this.
SMU at (22) Louisville (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a bit high with what the SMU offense has been doing. Can they win outright? Maybe not, but that explains the drop (5.5 points) in the line. Just a gut feeling, but this feels like a game that the Mustangs win.
Purdue at Wisconsin (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low considering the Wisconsin offense has looked good under Braedyn Locke. The loss of Chez Mellusi hurts, but Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker and Cade Yacamelli can pick up the slack. Badgers roll.
Wisconsin Badgers RB Chez Mellusi steps away from the team as he battles injuries.
Dude has been a hell of a warrior, wishing him all the best !!#badgers #wisconsinbadgers #wisconsin pic.twitter.com/PnCRRDYkQv
— Ryan Harings (@RyanAndBucky) October 4, 2024
There are rumors of an altercation between Mellusi and coach Luke Fickell, and if true, it's a very bad look for Fickell. Stay tuned to As The Badgers Turn.
Massachusetts at Northern Illinois (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really don't like this line considering the lack of explosiveness from the NIU offense. Give me UMass I guess, but there's no way I'm touching this.
Boston College at Virginia (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos Will Start Week 6 vs. Virginia
Castellanos Has 64.3%, 729 Yds, & 10 TDs For The Eagles This Season#EarnIt #ForBoston #GoCFB #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/iWdn3za2U7
— CFB Nation ? (@TheCFBNation) October 3, 2024
This didn't affect the line as much as I thought it would. BC opened as a three-point dog, so the return of Castellanos, while massive for the Eagles, barely moved the line. That means Vegas is firm on the Wahoos, and I am too. Xavier Brown to the moon!
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm not worried about the Tar Heels hanging with Duke. Pitt is explosive whereas Duke is not. Add to that the fact that Rodney Hammond Jr. is returning, and Pitt might run for 400 yards. I'm not joking... I'm going heavy on Pitt here.
So let's recap:
Pitt is 4-0 for the first time since 2000
Looking to go 5-0 for the first time since 1991
We have a QB who is on pace to match Kenny's senior season
Reid is healthy, and oh ya, WE GOT RODNEY HAMMOND BACK— Ian Labatch (@E97Big) October 3, 2024
Wake Forest at North Carolina State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Somehow, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams lost. That's the kind of season it has been on Tobacco Road. The best team in North Carolina is Duke and it's not close. Give me the Pack. Hank Bachmeier has somehow made Wake worse...
Navy (-9.5) at Air Force
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Falcons lost to an awful Wyoming team. Evan Svoboda could only dream of being Blake Horvath when he grows up. Navy wins BIG!
Army (-8.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
We live in a weird world in 2024. Army and Navy both have quarterbacks who can pass. I'm freaking out, man! And I'm taking Army!
Tulane (-16.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow...so this is what happens to the line when you beat the hell out of South Florida. However, this is a road game and I've opined about Byrum Brown still being injured in that game. Jacob Zeno isn't much of a threat to run (or throw for that matter...), but is UAB this far down?
I'm struggling with this one, so I'll probably leave it alone. The Blazers haven't beaten an FBS team, so I'll take Tulane.
Western Michigan (-9.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up and it should be. Jaden Nixon is going to have a huge game. Give me the Broncos.
Iowa at (3) Ohio State (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is down because the Buckeyes are untested. What happens if Will Howard has to make up for a struggling running game? We may find out here. Iowa's run defense is legit. This feels high. I expect a slog. Give me Iowa. They probably won't win outright, but this will be similar to the Penn State-Illinois game last week.
Auburn at (5) Georgia (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is Auburn going to go back to Hank Brown yet? No? Georgia rolls in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry.
(12) Mississippi (-9.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
9.5 points? Really? After the Kiffins got locked down by Kentucky? OK, (Vegas) boomer(s). (The real) USC may not win this outright, but I'll bet it stays within a touchdown. It's time to get Cocky!
(23) Indiana (-13.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Has Vegas even watched that Indiana offense? This is way too low! Even Washington covered by this!
Temple at Connecticut (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has already jumped a touchdown! That's nuts! Do you know what else is nuts? Skyler Bell. Give me UConn!
TOUCHDOWN!!
Bell with his second of the day! ? pic.twitter.com/dhHpwoxpis
— UConn Football (@UConnFootball) September 28, 2024
Virginia Tech (-8.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Let's see...Stanford beat the Orange at the Loud House. Have the Hokies done anything near that? I think hanging with the Hurricanes is skewing this line. Give me Stanford at home. It might not be an outright win, but this stays close.
Appalachian State at Marshall (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's no juice on the 3.5, so Vegas is telling us they expect a three-point game. I don't disagree. I don't like the hook, but I still think Marshall wins by closer to a touchdown.
Miami (OH) at Toledo (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like this better since it's under a touchdown, especially considering UMass pushed the Redhawks to overtime in Oxford last week. Give me the Rockets.
Bowling Green (-15.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Two words: Harold Freakin' Fannin!
This weekend, @BG_Football’s Harold Fannin had the second most receiving yards in a game for a TE in the last five years.
He finished with 12 catches, 188 yards and two TDs.
Both TD catches highlighted his immense upside:
✅Developed route runner/footwork
✅Outstanding… pic.twitter.com/IAbut2uq2L— Eric Galko (@EricGalko) September 30, 2024
East Carolina (-8.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh...I don't know. I guess I believe it. Give me the Pirates.
Rutgers at Nebraska (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a little high to me. This Rutgers team is very similar to the Illinois team that won in Lincoln a couple of weeks ago. I'll take Rutgers.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is in a freefall. I'm not sure it should be. Rag on Alan Bowman all you want, but I would still take him over Garrett Greene.
WEST VIRGINIA @ OKLAHOMA STATE
ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW pic.twitter.com/PnAfT79SvP— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 2, 2024
That's good enough for me! Give me the Pokes.
(1) Alabama (-22.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What if Alabama gets bored? I guess I'll lower the bet because there's no way I'm taking Vandy.
Colorado State at Oregon State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Rams and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi have regressed this year. I'll take the Beavers.
(15) Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is one of those lines that opened in the preseason with the Seminoles favored. Crazy how things can change so much in six weeks, huh? I really don't like that half, but I'm still taking Clemson.
Utah State at (21) Boise State (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Is this with a mini Ashton Jeanty or a regular Ashton Jeanty? Boise rolls!
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What has Coastal done to deserve being favored in this game? That's a serious question. I like ODU outright!
South Alabama (-2.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Is this a joke? I never do this, but I'm laying a maximum bet on a Fun Belt team. LSU beating the tar out of the Jags doesn't faze me. They're still a lot better than Arkansas State right now.
James Madison (-16.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Dukes aren't scoring 60 in this one. They may not even hit 30 considering Texas "only" scored 51. Give me the Dukes anyway.
Louisiana (-16.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate lines like this, but the Cajuns did get their first-ever win over an ACC school last week. Give me Louisiana.
(4) Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No one has slowed down the Vols yet. Arkansas won't either. Give me Tennessee.
(10) Michigan at Washington (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is insane. Michigan by double figures.
(11) USC (-8.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, it won't be snowing in October this year, so USC should be able to win by 10-14 points.
Baylor at (16) Iowa State (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know the Iowa State defense is good, but that offense needs to get something going. Baylor has shown a lot of heart in the last two weeks. I like the Cyclones to win this, but it feels like it's going to be closer than this line. Give me Baylor.
Nevada at San Jose State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Under a touchdown? Hell yes! SJSU rolls!
Central Florida (-2.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Central Florida at Florida by the numbers pic.twitter.com/vH8oYlwRfS
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 2, 2024
Oh man, R.J. Harvey has to be drooling like me on prime rib night at the local steakhouse looking at this run defense. I'll take UCF until Florida proves they can stop the run. They haven't proven it so far.
Duke at Georgia Tech (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Really? What am I missing? This is another line that I feel is WAY out of whack this week. Duke straight up!
Kansas at Arizona State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not a bit surprised by this. My Kansas over 7.5 wins is shot and it's barely October. One of these games, Jalon Daniels is going to get back on track. It might be here. I'll take Kansas, but I wouldn't bet this.
Hawaii at San Diego State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Aztecs lost outright to Central Michigan last week, but this Hawaii team has not progressed like I thought they would under Timmy Chang. Give me the Aztecs, I guess. You know...the whole Hawaii on the mainland thing.
(8) Miami (FL) (-10.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is dropping, presumably because College GameDay is in Berkeley for this one. I like Cal, but I'm not sure they can hang around here. Much like Colorado State, I feel like the Bears have regressed after a good year last year. Give me Miami.
Texas Tech at Arizona (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line isn't high enough to chase me off of Arizona. I'll take the Wildcats.
There are 49 total games this week, so it's a little lighter. I topped out with five max bets, a season-high. I also have seven four-point bets, so I'm top-heavy. I only have three minimum bets this week. I'm around my average of 20 two-point bets and 13 three-pointers. Good luck out there! This is going to be a fun week!
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