College Football Betting Picks: Against The Spread (10/26/24)

We have a lighter Saturday with many teams taking in mid-season off weeks and one team (UMass) slumming in FCS. We still have a solid 47-game slate to keep us occupied. I already missed one max bet last night (Old freaking Dominion, of course), so I have some ground to make up already. I never like starting from behind.

I finished 28-31 last week and missed both max bets so I lost a few points. Let's try and do better this week. I'm still off to a good start so far. I am 211-193 picking every game this year. Let's keep it going!

These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 9 (10/26/24)

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

Nebraska at (4) Ohio State (-25.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Here we are. It's the end of October and we still don't know much about Ohio State. However, if Indiana can beat Nebraska by 49, the Buckeyes should be able to beat them by 28, right? RIGHT? Give me the Buckeyes.

(12) Notre Dame (-13.5) vs. (24) Navy at East Rutheford, NJ

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This is too many. Don't be shocked if the Irish lose this outright. Give me Navy.

Fun fact: Navy is 2-0 all-time at MetLife Stadium, upsetting Notre Dame 35-17 in 2010 and beating Army 17-13 in 2021.

Kim & I were there in 2021 ? pic.twitter.com/t1N5yW43e8

— Emily Van Buskirk (@Emilnem) October 21, 2024

Washington at (13) Indiana (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I'm all over this! The Hoosiers will obviously miss Kurtis Rourke, but in case you haven't been paying attention, he's not the be-all and end-all of this team. The Hoosiers are a team in every sense of the word and Tayven Jackson will be fine. Hoosiers roll!

Oklahoma at (18) Mississippi (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is drunk. It opened at -6 and is being inflated like a bounce house. I want to say that this is too many. Jackson Arnold moved the offense a little but Gavin Sawchuk joins every receiver in an OU uniform on the injured list. Oklahoma's troubles moving the ball are still going to be there.

Availability report for the #Sooners.

Gavin Sawchuk is doubtful. Deion Burks questionable. pic.twitter.com/OAV41eUQJJ

— Jesse Crittenden (@JesseCrittenden) October 24, 2024

I'm not touching this. If you choose to, the smart money is on Ole Miss. Me? I'm dumb and my homerism is showing. Give me Oklahoma. They won't win, but man, that feels high.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Sure...the Hokies screw my futures bet then decide that they're supposed to play football in 2024. Now that college football is basically college basketball, the Hokies have an outside shot at the ACC Championship where they could steal a bid. Just because they're late bloomers doesn't mean they are sunk this year. I'll take VT, but lower the bet because of the hook.

North Carolina at Virginia (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I was hoping this would happen. Yeah, the Wahoos looked bad against Clemson. Clemson is good. North Carolina is not. It's simple, really. Give me the Hoos by at least a touchdown.

Buffalo at Ohio (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I have no earthly idea what to do with Buffalo. Just when I think the defense has taken a turn for the better, Western racks up 48 points on them. I'll take Buffalo, but there's no way I'm betting on this.

Charlotte at Memphis (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This feels legit. The Memphis defense (or lack thereof) makes me a little nervous, but I'll just lower the bet. Charlotte peaked against East Carolina.

Tulane (-7.5) at North Texas

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That North Texas-Memphis game was fun last week, but Tulane can actually play defense. I'll ride the wave.

Arkansas (-6.5) at Mississippi State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Call this the Michael Van Buren Jr. factor. I do think that Mississippi State snipes someone this year and a game against a good-but-not-great Arkansas team in StarkVegas is a prime place for it to happen. I'll take Mississippi State. Even if they don't pull it off, it will be a very uncomfortable win for the Hogs.

Georgia State at Appalachian State (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Appalachian State Mountaineers will play their first home game following Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact on Western North Carolina at 1 p.m. Saturday in Boone vs. Georgia State.

Columnist @scott_fowler on the big game at link below:https://t.co/cAwyR3wYw4 pic.twitter.com/ifgZipv1a2

— Langston Wertz Jr. (@langstonwertzjr) October 24, 2024

Neither team looked good against Marshall. The Mountaineers have only won one FBS game. Georgia State beat Vanderbilt. This is the first game in Boone since Hurricane Helene, so it's going to be an emotional one. I just don't see App State winning by two scores though.

Central Michigan at Miami (OH) (-12.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That's a lot of points for a team that doesn't score a lot of points even on their best days. This is too many. Give me the Chips.

Temple at East Carolina (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Why is this line falling? Beating Tulsa isn't much of an accomplishment. Give me the Pirates.

(20) Illinois at (1) Oregon (-21.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Hey now, that's a pretty good Illinois defense. This is about three points too high. I'll take the Illini.

(11) BYU at Central Florida (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

This whole "BYU can't win on the road in the Big 12 (14)" thing has been overblown. It's so overblown that even Vegas is believing the charade. BYU by at least a touchdown. I don't buy this at all.

(21) Missouri at (15) Alabama (-16.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't know if Bama has looked in the mirror lately, but this is too many. Brady Cook has more heart in his right thumb than the entire Alabama team has. This is WAY too many.

Northwestern at Iowa (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

You're kidding, right? I would be shocked if either team scored 14. Give me Northwestern.

Maryland at Minnesota (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Both teams upended USC. In preseason, I would have said that Maryland was better. However, their offensive line isn't good enough to keep the Minnesota defense off of Roman Hemby and Billy Edwards Jr. I'll take Minnesota.

Rice at Connecticut (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

How will UConn respond to being jobbed at the end of the Wake game? Probably not favorable for Rice. Give me UConn.

Wake Forest (-3.5) at Stanford

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line opened with Stanford favored. Now you can't find it for under three. It probably still hasn't been corrected enough. Give me Wake. The real story in this game is Bachmeier vs. Bachmeier.

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Both teams are coming off of their best games of the season. This feels like a trap for Baylor. Would I bet that it is? No. Give me the Pokes, but I have no interest in betting on this one.

Texas Tech at TCU (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I love this line, especially since I still like the Red Raiders outright! The Saddle Trophy will wind up in Lubbock!

Texas Tech has played TCU 69 times (nice). They are Texas Tech’s 4th most played opponent behind Baylor (83 games), Texas (73 times), and A&M (70 times).

Texas Tech leads the all-time series 33-30-3, however TCU leads the series since 1993 9-8. pic.twitter.com/Jy6UOThdsD

— Raider Ty (@RaiderTy92) October 24, 2024

Southern Mississippi at James Madison (-24.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ouch, that's a lot of points. It is warranted though. Give me JMU.

Eastern Michigan (-2.5) at Akron. 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Give me the Zips purely out of spite. That and the Turnover Tire freaking rules!

Akron’s turnover tire is wild ? pic.twitter.com/1e4ujzS079

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) November 2, 2023

Northern Illinois (-11.5) at Ball State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Come on now...Vandy didn't even beat Ball State by that much and NIU has only scored 110 points in six FBS games. I'll take the Mason Jars.

Bowling Green at Toledo (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I love Harold Fannin Jr., but as far as I know, he can't play defense. Give me Toledo.

Kent State at Western Michigan (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

That hook doesn't even really bother me. Kent is terrible. Jaden Nixon should have a monster game. I'll take the Broncos.

UTSA (-8.5) at Tulsa

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line is all over the place. Grab it at -7 if you can. If not, I'm comfortable with anything under 10. UTSA should roll the Dust Devils.

Oregon State at California (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I really don't like that half. This line feels high, especially with the way Gevani McCoy is playing for the Beavers. Jaydn Ott might return for Cal. Even if he does, I would bet they take it easy with him. I'll take the Beavers.

(5) Texas (-18.5) at (25) Vanderbilt

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is already down three points. I have a feeling that Vandy keeps this close. I also have a feeling that Texas is good and mad after getting embarrassed by Georgia on their own field. I'll take Vandy, but I have little confidence in this. If Texas shows up, this won't even be a game...

New Mexico at Colorado State (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The regression of Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi continues and Devon Dampier is making crazy plays for the Lobos. I'll take New Mexico.

????????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ➡️ ????? ???????

Dampier turned in an incredible performance, throwing for 272 yards and rushing for 105 yards and accounting for four total touchdowns in leading the Lobos in a thrilling come-from-behind 50-45… pic.twitter.com/ATFYWj7BM1

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) October 21, 2024

Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line is tanking for the same reason that I picked ULM in Pick 'em. Monroe is a solid team. I'll take the Warhawks here too.

Florida State at (6) Miami (FL) (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

And to think FSU was favored in the preseason. It would be the most Miami thing ever to lose this game, but this team is too talented. I'll take the Hurricanes.

West Virginia at Arizona (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I can't say that Arizona "feels safe" with a straight face in 2024, but I do feel fairly confident that they light up the Mountaineers.

Utah (-3.5) at Houston

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't care how bad Isaac Wilson looked last week. Houston got blown out by a 1-5 Kansas team. Give me the Utes.

Utah State (-1.5) at Wyoming

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Utah State let New Mexico come back on them, but New Mexico has dynamic players. Wyoming does not. Give me the Aggies.

Troy at Arkansas State (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Is this really where we are now in the Sun Belt? This feels a little off. I'll take Troy.

(3) Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Vegas also believes that Penn State is going to have trouble in Madison. Tawee Walker is going to be a factor, but Wisconsin needs Braedyn Locke at his best to pull the upset. I was hoping that Penn State would be more than a touchdown favorite. I'm lowering the bet because they're not, but I still like Wisconsin here.

(8) LSU at (14) Texas A&M (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I still like LSU outright, but I'm not going to go crazy with it.

Michigan State at Michigan (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Well, this is amusing. I can guarantee you that Michigan State has better quarterback play with Aiden Chiles and they want this more. I still like Michigan State outright.

Bring Paul home. pic.twitter.com/zbeADt6onR

— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) October 22, 2024

Auburn at Kentucky (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Two coaches on the hot seat. Two struggling quarterbacks. Oh well, Kentucky at least has a signature win and a running game. Wildcats roll!

Kansas at (16) Kansas State (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

It's Sunflower Showdown week already? Kansas gets some confidence back, but K-State has demolished everyone but BYU. I'll take the Wildcats in the Little Apple.

(22) SMU (-11.5) at Duke

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't know about this. I know that Duke loses, but this feels like too many in Durham. Give me Duke and the points.

San Jose State at Fresno State (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is all over the place. It's still as high as -7 and I've seen it dip to -3.5. I like San Jose State, but I'm not betting on this. Fresno looks better and the Spartans are slipping.

Cincinnati at Colorado (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

If I had to make the line, this is about where I would have it as well. It's up because Isaiah Augustave might be to Colorado what Caden Durham is to LSU. I'll take the Ralphies.

Washington State (-14.5) at San Diego State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I really don't like that half. Give me the Aztecs. They won't win, but I wouldn't be that surprised if they keep it somewhat close.

Nevada at Hawaii (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't think so. Nevada outright!

I have six maximum and six minimum bets this week, so I'm back on the big bet horse. My nine four-point bets are also the most of the season. I ended up with 21 two-point bets which is a little lower. I have 14 in the middle. This feels like a good betting week!

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