RADIO
Our Saturday is a lighter one this week with 44 games, but we had eight before Saturday so I'm not complaining! Whereas last week was supposed to be boring with only one matchup between two ranked teams, we have more this week. We all know how last week went. What will this week do for an encore?
My picks didn't go so well last week, more specifically the night games. I missed 14 of the last 15 down the stretch. I need a rebound this week, but that doesn't mean I'm going to go crazy on betting. Slow and steady is how you beat Vegas.
I'm still off to a good start so far. I am 158-134 picking every game this year. Let's keep it going!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 7 (10/12/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
South Carolina at (7) Alabama (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I pity the fool who has to play Alabama at home after taking the loss of the century. South Carolina is that fool. Roll Tide!
POV: You play a raging Alabama fresh off its worse loss in program history in Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday
(We’re cooked) pic.twitter.com/H98erXFmtY
— Saturday In South Carolina ?? (@SaturdayInSC__) October 8, 2024
(10) Clemson (-20.5) at Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This still looks low. Give me Clemson.
(21) Missouri (-27.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
At UMass, huh? They'll cure what ails you. Give me Mizzou.
Washington at Iowa (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
See? I told you Pick Em readers that I wasn't crazy! Vegas believes me. I'm still taking Iowa.
Wisconsin at Rutgers (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I feel better about the under 43.5, but we don't do over/under here (if you message me in Discord, I'll try to help). Give me Rutgers at home, but I'm probably leaving this alone.
Georgia Tech (-4.5) at North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well...this feels low. One of these weeks, Carolina will bust me. I don't think it's here.
Ball State (-4.5) at Kent State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kent might have their worst team in decades. Give me the fighting David Lettermans.
Toledo (-9.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
10 points in Buffalo feels a little high. Well... never mind. Buffalo lost to UConn by 44 points. Give me the Rockets.
UAB at Army (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow! This line is up eight points already since it opened. Look, I believe in Army too, but that is a TON of points for a team that excels at bleeding the clock. I'll take UAB, but I'm not touching this.
Miami (OH) (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks are 1-4 against the spread. The only one they beat was in the loss to Notre Dame and they barely beat it. The Eagles are 5-0 against the spread and are at home on the battleship gray field. Give me EMU.
(1) Texas (-14.5) vs. (18) Oklahoma at Dallas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Them: How bad do OU fans dislike Texas football?
Me: #BoomerSooner #HornsDown #RedRiverRivalry #RedRiverShootout #OUTexas pic.twitter.com/SMfD3TJmN3
— Brett Baggett (@BrettaBaggett) October 7, 2024
This line is up six points and I'm not even a little bit surprised. This is usually a close game. The exception was when Dillon Gabriel was out and we ran a tight end at quarterback two years ago. I'll take Oklahoma against this large of a spread, but I'm not delusional enough to think we win this game.
OU-Texas
Red River Shootout at the Cotton Bowl
The greatest sporting event in the world.
Two hundred fifty thousand fans at the state fair and 100,000 in the stadium, split down the middle, half Crimson, half burnt orange.
No other game has featured as many contests… pic.twitter.com/oeBwVyX7Dv
— Crimson King (@CrimsonKing405) October 9, 2024
(4) Penn State (-3.5) at USC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know...every time that Penn State gets ranked this high, I feel like the other shoe is about to drop. Is it here? The Trojans haven't looked good lately, but Penn State looked downright bored against UCLA. I'll take Penn State, but I'm lowering the bet a little. USC might show up here.
Stanford at (11) Notre Dame (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Notre Dame isn't as explosive as the Clemson or Virginia Tech teams that ran the Cardinal off the field. Give me Stanford.
California at (22) Pittsburgh (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I do think Cal keeps this close, but I'm thinking touchdown and not a field goal. The best part? I don't even have to pick with the spread this low. I'm going a little heavier on Pitt because of it.
Purdue at (23) Illinois (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The most exciting thing about this game is going to be watching the Purdue band trying to get that big ass drum in the stadium. Illinois rolls!
Louisville (-7.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nah. I'll say this stays a one-score game in Charlottesville.
Cincinnati at Central Florida (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Update sent to members of Big 12 media about this week’s UCF-Cincinnati football game:
“After thoroughly evaluating the impact of Hurricane Milton in central Florida and discussions with both Cincinnati and UCF, the Big 12 Conference football game between the two schools will…
— Mike J. Asti (@MikeAsti11) October 11, 2024
This line is already cut in half, presumably because of concerns over the state of the field. We watched a bowl game last winter where this field was a giant slip and slide and it definitely impacted the game. I'll take UCF, but I'm probably not messing with this.
San Jose State at Colorado State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. I've seen it as high as -1.5 in the other direction and -2.5 for the Rams. I don't buy it. I like the way this San Jose State team plays. I'll take the Spartans.
San Diego State at Wyoming (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The tape of this game will be used as torture in some countries, but I still don't see Wyoming winning. Evan Svoboda has peaked. There's nowhere to go but down. Give me the Aztecs.
Old Dominion at Georgia State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not falling into that trap again. Give me the Panthers.
Akron at Western Michigan (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Western couldn't pull away from Ball State last week and Akron hung with Bowling Green. This feels high. I'll take the Zips.
Northern Illinois at Bowling Green (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping NIU would be favored so I could smash the Falcons at better moneyline odds. No such luck. I'm still taking Bowling Green.
Memphis (-7.5) vs. South Florida at Orlando
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It’s been 3,241 days since south florida football has won a game in Orlando.
It’s been 12,437 days since Memphis Football has won a game in Orlando.
Redemption comes for one of these minor league hopefuls this Saturday at 3:30 inside Camping World Stadium.
— ???? (@dali_drama) October 11, 2024
Hurricane Milton moved this game inland. It's going to be busy in Orlando at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday! I like USF, but that defense always makes the offense work harder than they need to. I'll take the Tigers, but I'm lowering the bet because of the hook.
Arizona at (14) BYU (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Arizona can avoid giving up the big plays to the BYU defense and special teams, they will win this game. I don't know what it is, but I still feel like Arizona steals this and detonates the Big 12 (14). How confident am I? Not very. I will have a small wager on the Arizona moneyline, but I'm leaving this out of parlays.
Ohio (-2.5) at Central Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This still feels low. Give me Ohio. Parker Navarro has improved a lot in the last month.
Mississippi State at (5) Georgia (-33.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck. Give me the Bulldogs, but I'm not touching this.
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana-Monroe (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Warhawks should be good for a touchdown at home. They ousted a good James Madison team last week.
Florida at (8) Tennessee (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tennessee is looking to beat Florida in back-to-back to games in Knoxville for the first time since 1990 and 1992. pic.twitter.com/620lzlvilc
— ???? ?????? (@ByNoahTaylor) October 9, 2024
I'm nervous about this one. Why? Tennessee has played the Gators after a loss eight times since 1971. They lost all eight of those games. Tennessee is significantly better than Florida this year. I'll take the Vols, but I'm not betting on this. Trends like that scare me.
Air Force at New Mexico (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Really? Devon Dampier has had a nice season for the Lobos, but they haven't faced a defense like this either. I like the Falcons outright.
Washington State (-3.5) at Fresno State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is too low. Cougars roll!
Arkansas State at Texas State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats love playing at home. I'm lowering the bet because of that hook though. I feel a lot better if you can find it at -13.5.
North Texas (-5.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this. FAU hung with Michigan State, contained UConn, and didn't get blown out by Army. They even beat FIU in the Shula Bowl. I'll take FAU at home.
UTSA (-3.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust this. Give me the Owls.
(2) Ohio State (-3.5) at (3) Oregon
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oregon makes it official.
Blackout at Autzen against Ohio State. pic.twitter.com/52Q5eTTfpm
— NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) October 10, 2024
I stand by my Oregon pick. The Zoo hits differently after dark and the Ducks have been tested this year. We can't say that about the Buckeyes.
(9) Mississippi (-3.5) at (13) LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Death Valley at night? Not happening. Geaux Tigers! I have to say it so the Cajuns can understand me.
Oregon State (-3.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Pack hung with a pretty good San Jose State team last week. That's why the line is this low. The Oregon State defense is more than good enough to control this offense where the Spartans couldn't. I'll take the Beavers.
Appalachian State at Louisiana (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this feels high. I know the Mountaineers are struggling without Nate Noel, but are they this far down? I don't think so. Give me App State because of the hook.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Diego Pavia on facing Kentucky:
"I texted everyone on the football team 'This is the most important game of the football season.' We're 3-2. We're in the middle of the SEC. If we want to get to the top and compete for a national championship, we got to win out from here." pic.twitter.com/Iz6MXax8WW
— Billy Derrick (@billyderrick10) October 9, 2024
The two teams with two of the most unlikely SEC wins meet in Lexington. Vegas is expecting a Vandy hangover. I'm expecting Diego Pavia to be more motivated than ever. This is way too many. Give me Vandy.
(11) Iowa State (-3.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Cyclones are under almost every radar. That's just the way they like it. This is a tough trip to Morgantown, but I'll still say the Cyclones win by 10 or so.
Syracuse (-3.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believe in Kyle McCord a lot more than anyone on the Wolfpack team right now. Give me the Orange.
Marshall (-1.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yeah...there's absolutely no way that I'm betting on this game. I'll take Marshall, but I wouldn't touch it with your money.
Minnesota (-3.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Look ma! Minnesota finally made it to the Rose Bowl...except it's only October. The Bruins are improving, but not this much. Minnesota becomes the champion of L.A. after this win.
(18) Kansas State (-3.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still have questions about the Colorado defense, but I also have questions about the Wildcats in mountainous regions. BYU blew their doors off in Provo. They have only won five of 33 games in Boulder. That's not even considering the Prime factor. Give me Colorado, but I'm probably not touching this.
(17) Boise State (-20.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yeah, right. Broncos by double this!
I grew feathers and turned into a chicken this week with only two max bets. I do have eight four-pointers though. I also have six minimum bets, which is a little higher than normal. I was about even in the middle with 19 twos and 17 three-point bets. Maybe I'm a little scared from last week. Maybe there just aren't as many good lines.
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