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It was another fun week in the last great college football season. Louisville stunned the Irish and crushed one of my max bets. Another went by the wayside when Wazzu couldn't tackle anyone in a gold uniform. I may have had a rough week, but I hope not. I even missed the pick on my team...but I'm glad I did. BOOMER!
We have five more games before the weekend this week. Tuesday's and Wednesday's picks were in the DFS article. That may be the case going forward with ESPN blessing us with so many mid-week games between the Fun Belt, Conference USA, and MACtion (coming soon).
I won't pick FBS vs. FCS schools. Those lines usually aren't offered up until Friday at the earliest. Judging by what most FBS teams did to their inferior foes out of conference, they won't be very lucrative for you either. Besides, I don't want to pick more 40+ point spreads than I have to. There aren't many of these left with most teams entering conference play, but we still have three or four stragglers hanging around again this week.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 7 (10/12-13/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
West Virginia (-2.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The West Virginia passing game has yet to get going, but I can always count on Houston to do something stupid and blow the game. I'll take the Mounties.
SMU (-11.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that the ECU offense has struggled, but this still feels high to me, especially in Greenville. I'll take ECU and the points.
Tulane (-4.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tulane has lost its luster since losing to Ole Miss with Michael Pratt out. This feels low, even on the road. I'm riding the Wave.
Fresno State (-4.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
At Fresno State practice this morning. Mikey Keene is in a walking boot and Levelle Bailey is in street clothes.
Logan Fife and Jayden Mandal splitting reps with the 1’s & 2’s in the first few drills of practice.
— Angelique Martinez (@AngMartinezTV) October 11, 2023
All Utah State does is cover spreads with Cooper Legas at quarterback. Logan Fife looked decent when Mikey Keene departed in Laramie last week, but the offense certainly wasn't the same. I'm taking the Aggies.
Stanford at Colorado (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Travis Hunter is likely to play and this offense is explosive. The Ralphies have played better in Boulder than on the road. I'm going with the Prime cuts of Buffalo in this one.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
Nick Vattiato threw for 405 yards and the Blue Raiders still lost outright. The Gamecocks released the Kraken that was Zion Webb in the second half and scored 38 points to MTSU's seven.
Florida International at New Mexico State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
I give up. I have no idea what to think of the Aggies at this point. More interceptions by Keyone Jenkins continue to plague the Panthers.
Sam Houston at Liberty (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That Sam Houston defense is impressive. Holding Liberty to three touchdowns at home isn't at easy as it sounds.
Western Kentucky (-5.5) at Louisiana Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bulldogs shut out Western Kentucky in the second half, but the comeback fell just short.
Kansas State (-11.5) at Oklahoma State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's amazing what happens when a team finally decides on a quarterback and a running back. This was the worst game I've seen Kansas State play since 2019.
Nebraska at Illinois (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How bad is Illinois? Nebraska scored both of their touchdowns in a span of 10 seconds in the second quarter. And they managed to screw up a kickoff this badly...
(12) Oklahoma vs. (3) Texas (-5.5) at Dallas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yes, I missed it...here. I was just trying not to lead you all astray. I said I was going to place a small wager on Oklahoma and I did. What a game by the Oklahoma defense. I've forgotten just how nice it is to be excited about defense. It has been a while.
Maryland at (4) Ohio State (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maryland led early and it was tied at halftime. Then Kyle McCord woke up the Buckeyes offense.
(23) LSU (-4.5) at (21) Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This one hurts. Missouri controlled much of this game, and then Brady Cook did what Missouri just doesn't do: he beat himself. This last one by Major Burns blew my bet. I was still relishing LSU not covering until this bad-beat disaster. At least I still cashed the over...
Boston College at Army (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Army usually doesn't give games away like this. Thomas Castellanos was a better Army quarterback (31 carries, 142 yards, 4 rushing TD) than Army's quarterbacks were. I guess this shouldn't be much of a surprise. I'm 0-9 on the season picking BC and Army so far.
Western Michigan at Mississippi State (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
To be fair, the Bulldogs weren't putting away Western Michigan before Will Rogers was forced to leave the game. They were never a threat to cover this.
Rutgers at Wisconsin (-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was a tough week for home teams trying to cover. Wisconsin controlled this game and still didn't cover. The offense may operate under the guise of a spread, but it's eerily similar to the plodding ones that have defined the Badgers for the last 20 years or so.
Toledo (-19.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's not really an excuse for the Rockets giving up 21 first-half points to UMass, though Taisun Phommachanh likely played the best game of his career in the loss.
Marshall at North Carolina State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wolfpack offense took off under MJ Morris. The saga of Brennan Armstrong continues, but I would bet that he's not getting his old job back after this one.
UTSA (-14.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm really glad that Temple went for two and missed for no apparent reason to give me the cover. E.J. Warner carved up the UTSA defense in this one. That is a major concern going forward.
Central Michigan (-3.5) at Buffalo: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I let Buffalo's struggles get in my head. I wish I would have bet more on this. I needed to...
(13) Washington State at UCLA (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It was UCLA that made the big adjustments. The defense got after Cameron Ward and Carson Steele bulldozed the Cougar defense.
Virginia Tech at (5) Florida State (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I mean...Virginia Tech really didn't do much to win this for me. They were down 22-0 after the first quarter and gave up 200 rushing yards to Trey Benson.
(11) Alabama (-1.5) at Texas A&M: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I told you that Jalen Milroe could throw when he had to. He and Jermaine Burton carried the Tide to a win here.
Syracuse at (14) North Carolina (-9.5): HIT
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have maxed this out. Syracuse was exposed as frauds by Clemson. That point was hammered home by the Heels.
Purdue at Iowa (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Deacon Hill had a quarterback rating of just above two points and the Hawkeyes still won...right on brand.
Wake Forest at Clemson (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How many more average (or worse) showings by Cade Klubnik will the fans tolerate? They obliterated D.J. Uiagalelei on social media for less...
North Texas at Navy (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy held down the North Texas offense for the most part. Once again, they win ugly but don't cover.
Texas State at Louisiana (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas State was in control of this game until Zeon Chriss got cooking in the fourth quarter.
Ball State at Eastern Michigan (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the kind of game that the Eagles usually blow. It was nice to see them come through when I picked them for a change.
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How does a team beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta then turn around and get shut out by the Redhawks? I don't know either...
Kent State at Ohio (-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know you're having a bad week when the hook snaps you on a 25.5-point bet.
Northern Illinois (-4.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Antario Brown finally had the game that everyone that has watched him knew he was capable of.
Vanderbilt at Florida (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vanderbilt did hang around for a while, but their defense headed back up I-75 to Nashville early.
Central Florida (-1.5) at Kansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This couldn't have gone much worse for UCF. John Rhys Plumlee got replaced because he wasn't much of a factor. Kansas ran for 399 yards and five touchdowns on the ground in another road blowout in the Big 12(14).
South Florida (-3.5) at UAB: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
All of the talk was about Byrum Brown, but Jacob Zeno hijacked the party and made it his coming out party.
Arkansas State at Troy (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If it wasn't for Antario Brown, Kimani Vidal would have led the NCAA in rushing for the second time this year.
Connecticut at Rice (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ta'quan Roberson and UConn waltzed right into Houston and beat Rice outright. We all saw that coming, right?
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Owls made me sweat this one.
Colorado (-4.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Fun Devils get my vote for the most-improved team since Week 1. This is going to be a dangerous team by next year. You can say what you want about Colorado, but Shedeur Sanders has made some big throws in his young career.
(20) Kentucky at (1) Georgia (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's games like this that have me thinking the Bulldogs could win the whole damn thing again. You know...the last title that means something.
South Alabama (-10.5) at Louisana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Appalachian State is content to ground you into the turf. The Jags will throw all over the field if they can.
Old Dominion at Southern Mississippi (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Kadarius Calloway did overshadow Frank Gore Jr, but neither offense did anything worth flexing about in this game.
(2) Michigan (-18.5) at Minnesota: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michigan returned two interceptions for touchdowns in this game. Who do they think they are, Iowa?
(10) Notre Dame (-6.5) at (25) Louisville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The emotions finally got the best of the Irish. Louisville came out swinging just like native son Cassius Clay and knocked the Irish out. It was a dominant second half the the Cardinals, especially on defense.
Arkansas at (16) Mississippi (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I think the Ole Miss offense was still tired from last week...
Georgia Tech at (17) Miami (FL) (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's one thing to lose, but to lose like this...and it's not even the first time this has happened to Mario Cristobal!
Cristobal's similar blunder at Oregon in 2018 against Stanford was the beginning of the end. It will be here as well. Don't blame Donald Chaney. It's not his fault. The guy had a great game. There was absolutely no reason to hand the ball off there. Miami will can Cristobal and hire Deion Sanders and The Rock to coach next year. You heard it here first.
(24) Fresno State (-5.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This had very little to do with Mikey Keene getting knocked out of this game. Wyoming was in control at that point. Logan Fife actually made the game closer for the Bulldogs.
Texas Tech (-1.5) at Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
They are going to have to resurface the turf at McLane Stadium after what Tahj Brooks did to it...
TCU (-6.5) at Iowa State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Backup Josh Hoover played better than Chandler Morris did. The Iowa State defense controlled this game and Rocco Becht did what he does best: take care of the football. It's okay to be a game manager as a freshman.
Colorado State (-2.5) at Utah State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In all fairness, Cooper Legas shouldn't have lost his job to begin with. I'll stand by that.
San Jose State at Boise State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boise pitched a shutout in the second half, but they gave up too much in the first 30 minutes to get me the cover.
(15) Oregon State (-9.5) at California: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
D.J. Uiagalelei throws for five touchdowns in a week where Cade Klubnik is noticeably absent against a bad Wake team. You did this, Clemson fans. At this point, you deserve it. DJU gave everything for Clemson. Now he has a fan base that will stand behind him even when he struggles.
Arizona at (9) USC (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Oh man, Arizona. Noah Fifita isn't giving that job up anytime soon. Arizona was up 17-0, but that interception thrown by Fifita on the next drive changed the game. This game reminded me that I really hate the new overtime rules for college football. I want another gladiator match like LSU and A&M had. I don't want a two-point conversion snooze fest like Penn State had with Illinois. The last two-point conversion here resulted in Caleb Williams being pushed into the end zone by a defender who was trying to push him out of bounds. So close, Arizona. So close...
College Football Betting Season Results
I knew this was going to be a rough week. It wasn't quite as bad as I thought, but I'm always a little mad at myself when I go 21-28. That leaves my season mark at 161-160. Still at .500, but that's not good enough. Seven games below .500 (and missing two max bets) is bound to lose me some capital. Let's see just how much.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-1 (16-21) = -5
2. 8-11 (64-62) = 4
3. 6-12 (52-50) = 6
4. 4-2 (17-21) = -16
5. 1-2 (12-6) = 30
I lost 20 points on the week, which took a touch more than half of my winnings on the season. I now have 19 points on the season and am chipping away at the deficit. I am now down 92 points in six-plus years of the points system. I'm on the way to paying back a disastrous 2021 season. I intend to get that out of the red this year. Stay tuned!
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