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Making a fantasy lineup for an event at Daytona International Speedway is like throwing darts at a dartboard and seeing where it lands. The goal, avoid chaos.
This weekend, even more so. Thirteen drivers enter Saturday night's race needing to win in order to be part of the playoffs. Oh, the beauty of having Daytona as the last race of the regular season.
There's a real chance one of those 13 drivers win. Consider this, the last four summer races at Daytona have been won by Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Justin Haley and William Byron; three of which were first-time Cup winners.
However, when it comes to superspeedway racing, it isn't as big of a game as chess as some people think. Though they don't always win, more times than not, the same drivers run up front at Daytona and Talladega. It is quite the skill, though.
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Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. Just a reminder, qualifying isn't until Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. ET, just four hours before the scheduled green flag.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +1200)
There's not a doubt in my mind that Team Penske is the best organization when it comes to superspeedway racing. All three of their drivers: Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have multiple wins when running in a big pack.
Because of that, it's up to you on who you decide to put in your lineup. Realistically, Keselowski could have won both superspeedway races thus far in 2021 (wrecked going for the lead on the final lap of Daytona 500; won at Talladega). But, I still like Logano this weekend, slightly more than his two teammates.
Sure, Logano has wrecked out of the past six superspeedway races. Not ideal. However, he's been in the top five positions when the wreck occurred all six times. He's led laps in all six races as well, leading the most laps at Daytona last summer and Talladega last fall. Another reason to select the No. 22 car: Logano starts from 22nd position.
Austin Dillon
(DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +1500)
It's a big weekend for Austin Dillon. Last weekend he called his shot, noting pre-race he believed he'd have a "rocket ship." Rocket ship, indeed, as the No. 3 car drove from 28th to third in the opening stage. Unfortunately for him, he wrecked out at the conclusion of the second stage.
Because of that, Dillon gained just three points on the cutline last weekend, now sitting 25 points below his Richard Childress Racing teammate, Tyler Reddick. Even if all things go the No. 3 team's way in the first two stages, he'll still need to outrun the No. 8 car by at least a handful of positions in the final stage.
Dillon is good at Daytona, too. Flashback to 2018, he won the Daytona 500. In this race two years ago, the No. 3 car led a race-high 46 laps, though triggered the "Big One" late.
Starting 27th isn't a big risk for your lineup, either. It's not a surprise Dillon is priced rather high for Saturday night.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +750)
If there is a clear-cut favorite for the unpredictable 400-miler, Denny Hamlin is likely the guy. Not only has the No. 11 Toyota won three of the past six Daytona 500s, but his last race victory came on a superspeedway, last fall at Talladega.
There's no doubt about it, Hamlin is good when it comes to superspeedways, particularly Daytona. He's not afraid to make bold moves, even if the field is single-file around the wall. In February, the No. 11 car was the pied piper, leading just under half the race (98 of 200 laps).
Hamlin will run up front on Saturday, no questions asked. He does start third, though, which makes him a reasonable price on DraftKings -- he is a big price on FanDuel. He's my pick to win.
William Byron
(DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +1200)
Remember how I stated earlier that the sane drivers typically run up front at superspeedways? You can add William Byron to that list.
Not only did Byron get his first Cup victory in this race last season, but he placed fourth at Talladega last fall, and likely would have won had Matt DiBenedetto not thrown a big block on the No. 24 car coming to the checkered flag. In the 500, Byron was involved in the 17-car pileup early. He finished runner-up to Keselowski at Talladega in April.
Of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars this weekend, Byron sticks out. However, his second-place starting spot is a bit of a concern, as any position below that in the running order will cost you. But if you recall, we're focusing on drivers that run up front at superspeedways.
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Corey LaJoie
(DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $5,500| DK SportsBook +6000)
There is one exception to running up front at superspeedways and it's Corey LaJoie. No, he doesn't necessarily lead laps or run up front early, but he typically finishes well. And with the No. 7 Chevrolet starting 33rd, that's good for your lineup.
All four of LaJoie's top-10 finishes have come on superspeedways, with two coming at Daytona. In the Great American Race this season, he brought the Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet home ninth. His best Cup finish came in his first top 10 at the track, finishing sixth with Go Fas Racing, two summers ago.
Entering the weekend, LaJoie is coming in with vengeance, as he was forced to sit out of last weekend's race at Michigan because of COVID-19 protocols. He was none-too-pleased. I think there's a good chance he gets a top 10 run this weekend. And if you're looking to put money down on a real longshot, he might be your guy at 60-1 odds. After all, Michael McDowell won earlier this year with 66-1 odds.
Matt DiBenedetto
(DraftKings $6,700 | FanDuel $8,700 | DK SportsBook +2200)
This weekend is a bright stage for Matt DiBenedetto. Of all the drivers that need to win their way to make the playoffs, arguably, the No. 21 car has the best shot. Why, you ask? Wood Brothers Racing is an affiliate of Team Penske, and one of its goals is to get the No. 21 car in the playoffs.
Throughout his Cup career, DiBenedetto has always been sporty at the superspeedways, particularly Daytona. In 12 starts at DIS, the California native has a trio of top-10 results. In 2019, he led a race-high 49 laps, competing for Leavine Family Racing.
Flashback to the last two Talladega races: DiBenedetto has a shot of winning. He lost out by a nose last fall to Hamlin, but was later black flagged for forcing Byron below the yellow line on the final lap. In April, the No. 21 Ford probably should have won, but ultimately blocked the wrong lane late. End result was fifth.
Fifth doesn't cut it this weekend, DiBenedetto must win. The No. 21 team is on a hot streak, having six straight finishes of 11th or better.
Bubba Wallace
(DraftKings $6,500 | FanDuel $9,500 | DK SportsBook +2500)
No bones about it, Daytona is Bubba Wallace's best track on the circuit. Not only did he finish runner-up to Dillon in the 2018 Daytona 500, but last August he grabbed the lead with less than a handful of laps to go. Less than a lap later, he was caught up in one of the late wrecks.
Wallace, too, is in a must-win situation. His first year at 23XI Racing has been a bit underwhelming, as expectations were sky high, despite being a first-year team. Wallace, himself, predicted two victories.
While that's a tall task for any rookie team, Wallace can salvage a good season with a win on Sunday. It's totally reasonable to see the No. 23 Toyota in victory lane come Saturday evening. Across the board, Wallace has good value this weekend, especially on DraftKings where he's undervalued. Putting a driver in your lineup that must win, however, could derail your whole team. Same as above for DiBenedetto.
Michael McDowell
(DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $7,000 | DK SportsBook +3500)
Bettors learned their lesson from February. Entering Saturday's 400-miler, DiBenedetto is 35-1 odds, rather than his 66-1 odds for the Daytona 500. Obviously back then, he scored the popular victory.
But, DraftKings and FanDuel have McDowell listed at $5,700 and $7,000, respectively. Because of that, the No. 34 Ford is an absolute steal this weekend.
If bettors thought Daytona was a fluke, McDowell nearly backed up his performance at Talladega in April, finishing third. He's an underrated superspeedway driver -- a good one at that. I strongly advise having McDowell in your DFS lineup, as he rolls off 18th.
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